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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Ridge was solidly weaker this run and still tracked over ILM then up I95. Scary but hope a little more weaker to get off shore.
 
I’m very encouraged here and would be from FL up to CHS based on the 12 trends, esp UK. UK and it’s ens has really caved not surprisingly due to left bias as well as earlier too far SW initializations. Now that it is initializing correctly and adjustments are being made for its left bias, it is coming in much further N.
In my long history of following tracks to the SE coast, more often than not they have shifted N not S. Irma was an exception.
 
SD said:
That's 25 miles from my house

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All I ever wanted from Flo, was her rain!! You can keep the slight breeze!
 
After making landfall it barely moves for 24 hours
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_7.png

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_8.png
 
While we do have sampling from the storm itself, we still need to wait for the upper level data before we can really figure out what's going on. Not sure, but I wonder if sampling the storm only and the run making it stronger and resulting in an unsampled environment ahead could have made this run further north or south than if it had already been sampled. That's why I'm waiting for 0Z so we have both variables sampled before drawing this as a stop to a trend.
 
ForsythSnow said:
While we do have sampling from the storm itself, we still need to wait for the upper level data before we can really figure out what's going on. Not sure, but I wonder if sampling the storm only and the run making it stronger and resulting in an unsampled environment ahead could have made this run further north or south than if it had already been sampled. That's why I'm waiting for 0Z so we have both variables sampled before drawing this as a stop to a trend.
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Exactly, agreed 100%.
 
Do not like this at all. Praying it goes out to sea. This looks like it could be worse than Fran.
 
SD said:
Yeah looks like it drifts SW between 168 and 192

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metwannabe said:
So we get 80+ winds followed by a foot of rain..... you couldn't draw up a more catastrophic situation, it's wrong got to be wrong
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A foot of rain? Oh there's a lot more than 1 foot of rain on this Euro run, already seeing 18" totals thru 180 HR on weathermodels and the storm has a few more days left to spin around and just dump.
 
metwannabe said:
I've got to stop thinking I can let my guard down.... dang it, need this to continue to trend north and east as in ots
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Maybe it's just me, but I've noticed that tropical system tracks tend to trend NE over time on the models. If the Euro went from Charleston to Wilmington in one run that bodes well for this thing to continue to trend OTS. I think this option is very much still on the table for this storm. This storm may end up being different in this respect but I guess we shall see.
 
Webberweather53 said:
A foot of rain? Oh there's a lot more than 1 foot of rain on this Euro run, already seeing 18" totals thru 180 HR on weathermodels and the storm has a few more days left to spin around and just dump.
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I quit taking measurements after a foot because I was getting the trees off my house.... yeah it was a conservative estimate on my part, figured it would be much more. Catastrophic either way man, poop
 
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