snowlover91
Member
It also appears that Florence is shedding her banding too.. I really hope she doesn’t go annular as that would be very bad news...
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
It does appear that she could be going in that direction......
Btw, she is not going due west, still gaining some latitude and getting very close to 26N, basically dead on the NHC track... this WNW movement was fully expected.
HiIf you live in this part of NC please message me I need help with something .
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
BHS1975
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
This has been right on the NHC track for a while now. Major props to them so far. Unfortunately that means NC is in the cross hairs. People trying to make this harder than it really is. Euro been dialed in for a while now +/- 100 miles
Stormsfury
Member
Key is the 26°N crossing. NHC has it at 63.1°W when Florence reaches 26°N... all in all NHC is much closer than the modeling overall...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I think us NC folks just hope it is wrong.
Storm5
Member
HWRF has been forecasting Florence to go annual for multiple runs recently as it approaches the coast especially FWIW
snowlover91
Member
If a storm goes annular they can maintain intensity for a long duration and are sometimes not effected as easily by adverse conditions like shear or dry air. An annular hurricane would be even worse due to the large eye, more surge, larger wind field, and being less prone to EWRC and environmental factors that could weaken her.
snowlover91
Member
For reference, here is what the HWRF shows Florence looking like tomorrow. This is textbook annular structure IF it actually verifies.
Check out the ally way for this to go through. Lots of shear looks present to is SW and some clouds pushing in to its NE..
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Looks like a path to the OBX?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
I thought it was moving into the perfect environment for this to stay a Cat 4 until almost landfall?
Current** steering
The shear shouldn't' really be that bad to be honest, but you can see the clouds racing and the winds are strong aloft. I don't think it does that much "harm" to Flo though....
Could this cause a further west movement and could have long term effects for South Carolina?
Guys I have created a new thread for banter on the tropical side of things right now. Since we have a historic hurricane threat going on. Please make use of this. This will keep the discussion less clutter and more informative.
Personally I don't like the looks of that ally way...
NCSNOW
Member
And then there's the 0z NAM
Storm5
Member
To piggyback this post when Florence makes landfall there will not be a separate observation thread . It will all be kept in one thread . Due to the historical nature of this storm we felt it’s easier on everyone to keep it all one thread
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Avalanche
Member
Wonder if this annular symmetry has any affect once it gets on land....will the lack of expansive outer banding limit flooding and concentrate it to a smaller radius/area?
It's the NAM and basically this is just bringing it in line with the model consensus and NHC track
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Sure enough NAM is well W/SW of its previous runs. We’ll see if other 0Z suites follow suit.
Do we toss the LR NAM like we do in the winter time? Asking for a friend
Yes. Anything past hour 60 isn’t to be trusted.
I would, however, for comparison sake it does stall Flo just off the OBX....
...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.9°N 62.4°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.9°N 62.4°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
Brent
Member
snowlover91
Member
Only usefulness of the NAM for tropics, especially outside 60 hours, is for any trends. In this case it brings it into better agreement with other models and that’s about all I would take from it.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
How is this location, in relation to what models were showing for this time!?
Let's take dead aim at NC
You only trust the NAM when it's the only model that shows what you don't want. For instance all other models show a foot of snow and the NAM shows rain. Trust the NAM or drink the tears of disappointment and anguish.
Kmcdjohnson
Member
I’m in Western Harnett CountyIf you live in this part of NC please message me I need help with something .
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Stormlover
Member
any chance of getting this to automatically update so it's not constant refreshing? not complaining, just asking 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, coming in at Morehead City instead of Wilmington would be better for the Triangle folks. Maybe we can get her to go even farther east.
New NHC track forecast take it from extream Western Wake County on the 5 pm update to Extream Eastern Wake County and over Wake Forest on the 11 pm track update. Also ICON came West 18Z kept it off the coast 00Z shows a landfall near Morehead City.