Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah a TC stalling over us for 5 days+, you'll be measuring rainfall w/ a meter stick. Biblical flooding if the Euro panned out.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Yeah a TC stalling over us for 5 days+, you'll be measuring rainfall w/ a meter stick. Biblical flooding if the Euro panned out.
It’s just one run of 3 models! No need for panic over the bullseye rain totals or wind fields 5 days out! Lots of changes yet to come! If your in the 24” of rain bullseye on Wednesday, then pandemonium can commence!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I would definitely be worried about the Euro's scenario this run. High hurricane force winds, heavy flooding, and of course likely tornado chances inland. Probably a major coastal disaster plus a large portion of E NC receiving power outages.
BHS1975
Member
I feel you but the possibility of a stall is worrisome.
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Euro moving the remnants SW. Goes for Norfolk to Roxboro to Charlotte
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Kylo
Member
The 12z FV3 GFS hits ILM twice, 2nd time even stronger.
Total rainfall from the euro
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
EPS has initialized and so far none of the members are anywhere as strong as the Euro OP by hour 18. They all seem to be around the correct pressure however.
Ironically, the one of few model guidance specifically made for hurricane forecasting (HWRF) decides to go in the opposite direction and head towards FL/GA instead. lmao We still got a LONG way to go, hopefully by Monday we'll have a stronger confidence in model consensus on a landfall point. Assuming that still remains the highest possibility vs OTS or near misses.
EDIT: Meanwhile HMON looks like it might head towards a SC landfall if extrapolated past hr. 126.
EDIT #2: Also the HWRF kinda puts a damper on this idea that a stronger Florence = further north landfall. At 850mb, the winds are 159.2kts (183.2 mph) at hr 126. I'm sure that's grossly overdone, but that's besides the point. As many of you mentioned, too many other players are going to have an effect on the track.
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Brent
Member
Yep the hwrf is bound for FL/GA
ForsythSnow
Moderator
On a side not from the models, the storm still looks horrible. Took in a lot of dry air and it seems it's wrapped all the way into the core again, so I'm not sure if it'll organize any better by tonight and may even take until tomorrow to get what it has in it now out.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So still anywhere from north Florida to out to sea. This is going to be a long week.
EPS through 84
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seems to be just a bit south on average of the guidance, but some members seem to be clustering around the OP so far.
@102 starting to see a few ots members however....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seems to be when it reaches 70 W that's where each member seems to split up. Also note that the OP seems generally on the north side of the guidance though there are many supporting members.
Basically from Fl to ots but seems to be a significant cluster around SC/NC border in that area
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BHS1975
Member
Basically from Fl to ots but seems to be a significant cluster around SC/NC border in that area
That’s the 0z
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Overall this is why we shouldn't start thinking OTS is becoming more likely. The overall comparison of 12Z vs 0Z is that is't further south and much stronger across the board.
0Z
12Z
0Z
12Z