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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Just pulled myself from Braves baseball on the West Coast (#ChopOn, y'all) to look at the board and the models.

Any westward bias at this point changes the game inland. A landfall at Myrtle vs. north of Wilmington has long-term impacts well away from the coast.

Wish this would turn out to sea, but not seeing that as an option at this point. Everybody be safe!

--30--
 
Even the models that are well east, CMC/GFS eventually dive west into the Carolinas eventually. Not good.
 
Saw this on the other board. Last 3 runs of the GFS. Bless its heart it’s really trying. It’s not its fault it isn’t coupled with the oceanB3C2EB13-65F5-4E85-A43E-2A5F76A398BF.gif
 
still don't trust the gfs.. those 'historic' low pressures are major outliers. Gfs against NHC and all other models, I'll take NHC. Although a lot of people will owe some big league apologies to the american model if that looping action becomes reality.
 
GFS, you're drunk - go home.
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_fh66-180.gif
 
Wow, she is yanking west. You still need to be thinking a South Carolina or Georgia landfall is possible. EURO ensembles will just not let go of this idea, and I certainly see how it is possible if this storm continues to move faster, westward, and at a lower latitude like it is doing now.
 
Careful about tracking the “eye” right now since the much larger one is causing the old eye to wobble around. Think of a pinball bouncing around in a pinball machine.. that’s what will happen as the old eye continues to dissipate.
 
Euro stalled near Myrtle Beach at 96

drifts from Wilmington to Myrtle Beach Friday

and still stalled there at 120

headed for Atlanta at 144... now the Euro is being weird...
 
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Euro stalled near Myrtle Beach at 96

drifts from Wilmington to Myrtle Beach Friday

EuRO and GFS are almost identical performing a stall and
and still stalled there at 120
Euro stalled near Myrtle Beach at 96

drifts from Wilmington to Myrtle Beach Friday

and still stalled there at 120

headed for Atlanta at 144... now the Euro is being weird...

The 00z upper soundings seem to be sensing on a lockdown double barrel ridge. The one in the ATL and the one expected to develop over the OV/NE. I haven't been able to shake this weird feeling...but it looks like the idea of a stall, head west slowly idea is in play now with virtually all the guidance showing this scenario in some sense.
 
The 00z upper soundings seem to be sensing on a lockdown double barrel ridge. The one in the ATL and the one expected to develop over the OV/NE. I haven't been able to shake this weird feeling...but it looks like the idea of a stall, head west slowly idea is in play now with virtually all the guidance showing this scenario in some sense.
With the double barrel ridge could storm stall further south like toward the south carolina coast?
 
With the double barrel ridge could storm stall further south like toward the south carolina coast?

It could very well be in play still. However, before the stall, the storm is expected to pick up a barrel of stream beforehand so, it's more wait and see. Just when it couldn't get any more complicated.
 
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