Claycochaser
Member
Sorry to interrupt the play-by-play...but does anyone else notice that she's in the process of cancelling her EWRC and exploding? Taking on a classic annular look as well.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
I have notice a trend with the 00z models a Stronger Ridge opposed to the weaking earlier models had it doing..
Brent
Member
GFS now headed for SC... really???
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yes. Every model tonight has a stouter ridge for sure.
Stormlover
Member
Yes, it is looking much stronger now.
Seeing that the GFS is not coupled with the ocean why do we even look at it?
Brent
Member
into Myrtle Beach at 132... well...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
What’s a few hundred miles west in one run for the GFS.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
How appropriate. At hour 144 on GFS Florence is over no other place than Florence, SC. At least the GFS has a sense of humor!
GFS has no idea where this system is going to go.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Holy **** the GFS is soooo bad
Did Ukmet shift south or west at all on the 0z?
bud006
Member
Just pulled myself from Braves baseball on the West Coast (#ChopOn, y'all) to look at the board and the models.
Any westward bias at this point changes the game inland. A landfall at Myrtle vs. north of Wilmington has long-term impacts well away from the coast.
Wish this would turn out to sea, but not seeing that as an option at this point. Everybody be safe!
--30--
Any westward bias at this point changes the game inland. A landfall at Myrtle vs. north of Wilmington has long-term impacts well away from the coast.
Wish this would turn out to sea, but not seeing that as an option at this point. Everybody be safe!
--30--
Kylo
Member
Yes, looks that way to me at 72. Will know for sure in 20 mins.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021
Kylo
Member
Even the models that are well east, CMC/GFS eventually dive west into the Carolinas eventually. Not good.
Saw this on the other board. Last 3 runs of the GFS. Bless its heart it’s really trying. It’s not its fault it isn’t coupled with the ocean
still don't trust the gfs.. those 'historic' low pressures are major outliers. Gfs against NHC and all other models, I'll take NHC. Although a lot of people will owe some big league apologies to the american model if that looping action becomes reality.
Yellow Snow
Member
GFS, you're drunk - go home.
Taylor C
Member
Wow, she is yanking west. You still need to be thinking a South Carolina or Georgia landfall is possible. EURO ensembles will just not let go of this idea, and I certainly see how it is possible if this storm continues to move faster, westward, and at a lower latitude like it is doing now.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yep if I lived in Myrtle Beach or Charleston I would def still have an uneasy feeling.
snowlover91
Member
Careful about tracking the “eye” right now since the much larger one is causing the old eye to wobble around. Think of a pinball bouncing around in a pinball machine.. that’s what will happen as the old eye continues to dissipate.
Brent
Member
so far as far as I can tell all of the 0z models are SW
FV GFS near Wilmington
FV GFS near Wilmington
0z FV3 shifted Southwest now making landfall more around SC and NC borders.
Kylo
Member
UK ain’t good. Crawling over ILM to Raleigh.
The Ukmet definitely shift further south abd west wonder if the starting to line up a landfall closer to SC abd NC border
Ukmet total precip. I wish there was a closer map to show counties.
Yep, but the fun part is how long before the old eye gives up the ghost? That can take a while.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I tell ya. With every frame she is looking more and more like an annular hurricane.
0z Euro Running
Brent
Member
Euro near Wilmington and really slowing down at landfall
Brent
Member
Euro stalled near Myrtle Beach at 96
drifts from Wilmington to Myrtle Beach Friday
and still stalled there at 120
headed for Atlanta at 144... now the Euro is being weird...
drifts from Wilmington to Myrtle Beach Friday
and still stalled there at 120
headed for Atlanta at 144... now the Euro is being weird...
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0z Euro made landfall in Myrtle beach after stalling for about 2 days. Actually move it west toward Columbia.
Florence becoming more symmetrical
Stormsfury
Member
The 00z upper soundings seem to be sensing on a lockdown double barrel ridge. The one in the ATL and the one expected to develop over the OV/NE. I haven't been able to shake this weird feeling...but it looks like the idea of a stall, head west slowly idea is in play now with virtually all the guidance showing this scenario in some sense.
With the double barrel ridge could storm stall further south like toward the south carolina coast?
Stormsfury
Member
It could very well be in play still. However, before the stall, the storm is expected to pick up a barrel of stream beforehand so, it's more wait and see. Just when it couldn't get any more complicated.
What do you mean by barrel of stream?