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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Wow! North/northeast model movement was quicker than I expected, this could actually go ots. If it doesn't, someone better brace for impact.
 
By day 4 the EPS/GEFS are relatively close to each other. GEFS is breaking the ridge down much quicker day 4+. The EPS takes Helene and merges with a trough diving over the ridge which helps shove the Bermuda ridge west and pushing Florence on shore. GEFS breaks down ridge and thus it stalls just off the coast. We shall see which one is correct.

gfs-ens_z500aNorm_atl_fh96-144.gif ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_atl_fh96-144.gif
 
Nav is an Isabel repeat.

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5pm discussion from NHC:
Florence is creeping westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt, trapped
between high pressure to its northeast and southwest. A different
blocking ridge is expected to develop north and northeast of
Bermuda over the next few days, causing Florence to accelerate
toward the west-northwest and northwest between days 3-5. There
have been some notable shifts in the model guidance on this cycle,
with the ECMWF model swinging to the northeast closer to the GFS,
and the HWRF model swinging farther south along the southern edge
of the guidance envelope. Despite this change in the deterministic
ECMWF run, its individual ensemble members are still showing a
significant spread of solutions from just north of the Bahamas to
offshore the coast of North Carolina by day 5. Because of this
spread, the updated NHC track forecast largely maintains
continuity and remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.
And despite the ECMWF's shift, this track prediction remains north
of the HCCA and FSSE solutions.
 
12Z MOGREPS has moved North compared to it's last run with majority of it's members going into FL/GA. Now it has some members between Orlando and Jacksonville, Fl. Another batch in the Savannah, Ga and Charleston, SC area. Then a few members North of there into NC. The mean looks to be in between Savannah and Charleston this run.
 
18z ICON is going to be either a far eastern NC hit or another very close miss. Only thing for certain is it's back to being further south and west versus 12z.o

EDIT: Yep, it's a very near miss to the Outer Banks, way closer than 12z was.
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12z
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