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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Webberweather53 said:
0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.

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Looks as if they turn west after landfall
 
Webberweather53 said:
0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.

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So is it possible the heavy rain amount shown in North Carolina could shift South Eric and affect us here in SC
 
Webberweather53 said:
0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.
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wow that's pretty telling and makes it more legit that it has support

SC definitely isn't out of this one yet
 
Webberweather53 said:
0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.

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I have never felt the models have had a good handle on just how strong the ridge may be. The euro the past two nights continues to be worrisome for SC. Still a lot of possibilities out there.


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whatalife said:
I have never felt the models have had a good handle on just how strong the ridge may be. The euro the past two nights continues to be worrisome for SC. Still a lot of possibilities out there.


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I don't envy the NHC on this one... watches have to go up today... a turn 50 miles earlier could make a hundreds of miles difference
 
Brent said:
I don't envy the NHC on this one... watches have to go up today... a turn 50 miles earlier could make a hundreds of miles difference
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Yeah, and especially when Flo is growing in size
 
1d5d93a9cb579945cb31fb2d2f338a0e126f02657c52e8523bd9e50c5026c720.png
You can see the left bend after landfall
 
Invest 95L definitely seems to be a culprit in the evolution of this SE US ridge west and north of Florence around day 3, notice even w/ a weaker Atlantic ridge, the flank of the high over the SE US intensified (likely due to excess outflow from this invest (which might become Joyce), hence the turn west into SC.

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_fh72_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Invest 95L definitely seems to be a culprit in the evolution of this SE US ridge west and north of Florence around day 3, notice even w/ a weaker Atlantic ridge, the flank of the high over the SE US intensified (likely due to excess outflow from this invest (which might become Joyce), hence the turn west into SC.

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Something to watch because from the look of things this storm got South Carolina written all over it.
 
085725_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM EDISTO BEACH...SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM EDISTO BEACH... SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHWARD TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.

View attachment 6162
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If that looks just like my cone in my map...
Florence definitely taking on an annular shape this morning and the Euro seems to have the same idea I have about how this system could behave as it makes landfall. Probably a blend of the 2 lines I put in. The rain is going to be crazy in Wilmington to Raleigh with the crawl inland. But hey, at least us in N GA are getting some rain later on per the Euro.
 
packfan98 said:
What are your current thoughts? Are you going to post a forecast map? Thanks!
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If I were to produce a forecast map I would place the track of Florence over Myrtle Beach as a mid-high grade (105-110 KT) category 3 hurricane, anticipating that the apparent deceleration in its track over shallower shelf water, increasing southwesterly shear, etc would weaken the hurricane, potentially knocking it back to a category 3 before making landfall.
 
Eye looks a little ragged this morning!!
But imagine my surprise going to bed with almost 0 impacts imby, and waking up to 8-12”+ of rain imby!!? All hail king Euro!! I don’t understand the rainfall map forecast shows the West bend to over my way, but cone still looks the same last night, over toward RAH?
 
Definitely going through ERC at the moment!!
 
612FC865-DA8F-4292-A784-14C6EAB21912.jpeg This cone! Should look different soon?
 
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