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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Webberweather53 said:
From the NHC's 5pm discussion on Florence, they already noted 95L's potential influence on the strength of the ridge steering florence.

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Whats interesting...and many have said this, including you...that the EPS was firing waning shots with even some tracks into GA....I discounted them, at the time, but maybe not anymore?
 
The UK met looks like a pretty good compromise between the Euro and GFS with more weight going towards the Euro.

Edit: I think we will see the official track ease back to where it was 24 hours ago, but with it stalling closer to the coast instead of further inland.
 
Storm5 said:
I hope our SC friends have been preparing as well .....


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I think they are going to play a lot of catching up today! SC residents, that is! All we heard about yesterday was the N shift, outerbanks scrapers and such! Shocking changes overnight! The governor is SC, is looking genius right now! I thought the Evacs and school closings for today, were a little overkill!! Not now!!
 
So the Euro went to Myrtle Beach and the NHC track still has Morehead City. Big difference. The models today are going to be critical. But it looks like Flo is coming in later again according to the NHC track. Starting to wonder if it will ever get here. But I guess it is good in giving more time to figure out exactly where she is going.
 
sweet jeebus 922

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nam3km_mslp_wind_us_60.png
 
The euro and fv3 are in lock step. I think it’s time for an early retirement for the gfs.


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Brick Tamland said:
So the Euro went to Myrtle Beach and the NHC track still has Morehead City. Big difference. The models today are going to be critical. But it looks like Flo is coming in later again according to the NHC track. Starting to wonder if it will ever get here. But I guess it is good in giving more time to figure out exactly where she is going.
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The ukmet and Euro were actually very similar with their tracks with the difference being how far north/inland she got before the crawl westward. Florence going to be moving at a pretty good clip and if the ridge builds in just a tad slower then the NHC track is spot on and more inland NC issues, if it builds in a little quicker then SC coast definitely in play..... I do not envy the NHC at all
 
So, the Euro has been saying NC forever, while the others were a little further north into NC, and then all of a sudden the Euro shifts south to Myrtle Beach. Madness.
 
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...
8:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 26.4°N 64.6°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
 
Weatherlover92 said:
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...
8:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 26.4°N 64.6°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
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Would 939 mb to 950 mb be considered slight weakening ? That seems pretty significant to me.
 
Personally I'm starting to feel a little better for mby and I'll probably wait until the 12 Z Suites to really start to relax somewhat. But I am starting to get concerned for the SC folks
Rain Cold said:
It’s pretty crazy to have less clarity as we get closer to the event.
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In my opinion there is a reason why the NHC has the track where they do. I know the EURO is the cats meow and all buts its jumping all over the place too. Until they (NHC) move it to South Carolina I'm gonna assume its hitting between Wilmington and Cape Lookout
 
Sandbar said:
In my opinion there is a reason why the NHC has the track where they do. I know the EURO is the cats meow and all buts its jumping all over the place too. Until they (NHC) move it to South Carolina I'm gonna assume its hitting between Wilmington and Cape Lookout
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Yeap that’s why they call it “guidance “.


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Sandbar said:
In my opinion there is a reason why the NHC has the track where they do. I know the EURO is the cats meow and all buts its jumping all over the place too. Until they (NHC) move it to South Carolina I'm gonna assume its hitting between Wilmington and Cape Lookout
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The Euro hasn't been jumping all over the place, the model & its ensemble mean have been centered on the NC/SC border or Horry County, SC virtually every run for the past several days.
 
Isn't this an analomoly of metrology what is happening in terms of track?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro hasn't been jumping all over the place, the model & its ensemble mean have been centered on the NC/SC border or Horry County, SC virtually every run for the past several days.
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Yeah, it hasn’t really waffled much IMO! It’s consistently been showing way more SC impacts than all othe models, looks like it may score a victory!
 
WeatherLC said:
Isn't this an analomoly of metrology what is happening in terms of track?
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Yes, 95% of hurricanes on this approach to the Carolinas would be accelerating to the NE after landfall, picked up by troughs
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro hasn't been jumping all over the place, the model & its ensemble mean have been centered on the NC/SC border or Horry County, SC virtually every run for the past several days.
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I was trying to say this yesterday but the contingent that thought this would go NE bc the gfs wouldn't accept it.

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6E4126F8-B684-455B-B71C-F9BC753960B2.png From the other board!
 
BHS1975 said:
Was it like that with Irma?


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Yeah what webber said it made pretty large jogs West and South in last 72 hours particularly the euro... went from like GA/SC coast to basically south florida and then went up the western side of state
 
Looks like it’s all down the the break down of the Bermuda ridge and the building of the Ohio valley one.


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