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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

On the chance that Florence hits NC as a Cat 5, I think it would be the first Cat 5 in history to make landfall in North Carolina.
 
I think confidence is steadily growing on a consensus for a NC hit being the most likely outcome when it comes to the scenario of a US landfall. I was waiting to see when the HWRF/HMON were going to cave before making such a declaration since they were southern outlier of tracks. Still not ruling out the rest of the SE coast for a landfall hit, I just think NC does look to be the most likely in the crosshairs unfortunately. Funny thing is 24hrs ago if I was a betting man, I would have leaned towards a SC landfall given how things trended.
 
SimeonNC said:
On the chance that Florence hits NC as a Cat 5, I think it would be the first Cat 5 in history to make landfall in North Carolina.
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I don’t think there’s been on record a 5 hit the E coast N of Andrew in far S FL.

Meanwhile, the chances of a hit CHS south have come down a good bit from yesterday. I had told others that the chance for a significant effect here (not necessarily direct hit from center, which obviously has low odds) was at about 25% yesterday and it wa enough to get me to make hotel reservations well inland just in case. I’m not canceling them yet, but I do feel the chances of a significant effect here have fallen to about half that (say 1 in 8 or so). Still high enough to be wary as it would still be 5-6 days away meaning unpredictability still there, especially with 15 of 51 12Z EPS members and ~8 of 21 12Z GEPS members CHS south, but certainly encouraging trends.

Meanwhile, wherever this does hit if it does, I hope for the best. Hopefully, she’ll stay OTS, which though not likely is a legit possibility imo, especially is she gets very strong and slows down near the coast.
 
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Courtesy of Allan Huffman....
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metwannabe said:
Courtesy of Allan Huffman....
92a64f15b002e5f79b3ca7e1871135da.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I like the bend to the west after landfall . I’m still just trying to get some rain out of this!
 
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