ForsythSnow
Moderator
If anything, this could make the storm stay further south longer and in turn throw another wrench into the equation for the path. It would probably also let the ridge build in stronger to the north.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
whatalife
Moderator
Could not agree more. Still way to many variables for anyone to discount this storm just yet.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
The NHC sounds so confident this will be a hurricane tomorrow morning but I can't see it being any more that 5 mph stronger vs 10. If it looks ugly tomorrow morning I'm sure it's going to take another day to RI.
Looking at IR, right now is the first time in a while I've seen convection blowing up and trying to wrap around the center of Florence. I don't know about RI occuring anytime soon, but I'm still confident in a slow, steady strengthening if this activity continues over the next 12-24hrs.
Brent
Member
Florence is still trapped within very light steering currents,
and is slowly moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 5 kt.
All indications are that this is about to change, as a strong ridge
of high pressure builds to the north of the hurricane. This
forecast flow pattern predicted by the global models will force
Florence on a general west-northwest to northwest track with an
increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of
the previous one, and is in the middle of the narrow guidance
envelope mainly for the next 3 to 4 days. By the end of the
forecast period, when the hurricane is approaching the U.S. coast,
the guidance envelope is wider and becomes bounded by the
northernmost GFS and the southernmost HCCA and the FSSE ensembles.
One thing all models coincide at the longer range is with the
collapsing of the steering currents, resulting in a significant
reduction of the forward speed of the hurricane.
and is slowly moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 5 kt.
All indications are that this is about to change, as a strong ridge
of high pressure builds to the north of the hurricane. This
forecast flow pattern predicted by the global models will force
Florence on a general west-northwest to northwest track with an
increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of
the previous one, and is in the middle of the narrow guidance
envelope mainly for the next 3 to 4 days. By the end of the
forecast period, when the hurricane is approaching the U.S. coast,
the guidance envelope is wider and becomes bounded by the
northernmost GFS and the southernmost HCCA and the FSSE ensembles.
One thing all models coincide at the longer range is with the
collapsing of the steering currents, resulting in a significant
reduction of the forward speed of the hurricane.
Its official forecasting major landfall
736
WTNT41 KNHC 090252
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018
Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern has continued to
gradually become better organized with an eye feature trying to
form. An average of all of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
tonight suggest that Florence is not a hurricane yet, but is close
to being one. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this
advisory. The recent ASCAT data showed less winds than previously
observed by the NOAA plane when the cloud pattern was less
organized.
There is a band of convection trying to wrap around a possible eye
feature, and that is an indication that Florence has continued to
recover from the hostile shear environment, which brought the
hurricane from Category 4 to a tropical storm in a matter of a day
or so. The presence of developing upper-level outflow is a
good indication that the shear has decreased, and with the presence
of a warm ocean ahead, strengthening is anticipated. As indicated
by my predecessor, the official forecast continues to call for a
period of rapid intensification in about 12-24 hours, and Florence
is expected to reach major hurricane intensity between 36-48 hours
with additional strengthening thereafter. Florence is forecast to
be an intense hurricane on days 3 through 5 as it moves across the
warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas
and Bermuda, and then as it heads toward the southeast United States
coast.
Florence is still trapped within very light steering currents,
and is slowly moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 5 kt.
All indications are that this is about to change, as a strong ridge
of high pressure builds to the north of the hurricane. This
forecast flow pattern predicted by the global models will force
Florence on a general west-northwest to northwest track with an
increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of
the previous one, and is in the middle of the narrow guidance
envelope mainly for the next 3 to 4 days. By the end of the
forecast period, when the hurricane is approaching the U.S. coast,
the guidance envelope is wider and becomes bounded by the
northernmost GFS and the southernmost HCCA and the FSSE ensembles.
One thing all models coincide at the longer range is with the
collapsing of the steering currents, resulting in a significant
reduction of the forward speed of the hurricane.
Key Messages:
1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.
2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue into next week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 55.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.5N 55.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 25.2N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 25.8N 61.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 27.5N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 33.8N 77.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/090252.shtml
WTNT41 KNHC 090252
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018
Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern has continued to
gradually become better organized with an eye feature trying to
form. An average of all of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
tonight suggest that Florence is not a hurricane yet, but is close
to being one. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this
advisory. The recent ASCAT data showed less winds than previously
observed by the NOAA plane when the cloud pattern was less
organized.
There is a band of convection trying to wrap around a possible eye
feature, and that is an indication that Florence has continued to
recover from the hostile shear environment, which brought the
hurricane from Category 4 to a tropical storm in a matter of a day
or so. The presence of developing upper-level outflow is a
good indication that the shear has decreased, and with the presence
of a warm ocean ahead, strengthening is anticipated. As indicated
by my predecessor, the official forecast continues to call for a
period of rapid intensification in about 12-24 hours, and Florence
is expected to reach major hurricane intensity between 36-48 hours
with additional strengthening thereafter. Florence is forecast to
be an intense hurricane on days 3 through 5 as it moves across the
warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas
and Bermuda, and then as it heads toward the southeast United States
coast.
Florence is still trapped within very light steering currents,
and is slowly moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 5 kt.
All indications are that this is about to change, as a strong ridge
of high pressure builds to the north of the hurricane. This
forecast flow pattern predicted by the global models will force
Florence on a general west-northwest to northwest track with an
increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of
the previous one, and is in the middle of the narrow guidance
envelope mainly for the next 3 to 4 days. By the end of the
forecast period, when the hurricane is approaching the U.S. coast,
the guidance envelope is wider and becomes bounded by the
northernmost GFS and the southernmost HCCA and the FSSE ensembles.
One thing all models coincide at the longer range is with the
collapsing of the steering currents, resulting in a significant
reduction of the forward speed of the hurricane.
Key Messages:
1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.
2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue into next week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 55.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.5N 55.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 25.2N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 25.8N 61.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 27.5N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 33.8N 77.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/090252.shtml
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Cat 4 hitting Wilmington. Crap.
snowlover91
Member
Convection is exploding over the center right now similar to what the 18z HWRF indicated would happen. She should strengthen quickly tomorrow and Monday. Here’s a loop.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Keep hoping this turns and goes out to sea, or it never gets to a big hurricane. But this looks really bad for NC.
About time to start seeing some decent convection forming. Now the question becomes will it be able to sustain it or will dry air entrain again.
.
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So, the brand new NHC initial latitude wasn’t changed from the 24.6 N of the prior advisory. So, maybe what appeared to be a slight dip on satellite pics is an illusion? I was estimating it dropped to 24.4N already. Any other opinions?
snowlover91
Member
Icon in 18z run was an OBX scraper and is likely coming in agreement with the tight consensus forming for landfall between Myrtle Beach and Morehead City.
That is a pretty stout ridge to the north. HR 60
Yet it's a little East of 18Z at hour 60
Gfs is very likely obx or just east
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