GFS is OTS but down to 912mb. She’s strong
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
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Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago
GFS model bias is to break ridge down too much, Very warm SST plus model bias has always been mainstay of ideas here since a week ago today.
Brent
Member
its like 30 miles offshore stalled... not really sure that's OTS really
Cary_Snow95
Member
It's stalled so badly that it legit doesn't move at all for 18 hours
He was giving Flo a 75% chance of hitting NC/SC about 4 days ago! Never doubt big Joe, unless he’s predicting southern snow/or a winter outlookTweets
GFS model bias is to break ridge down too much, Very warm SST plus model bias has always been mainstay of ideas here since a week ago today.
Just saw that..sits there going my on 42hrs stalled and drops from 915 to 910mb in that time...what
Kylo
Member
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GFS model bias is to break ridge down too much, Very warm SST plus model bias has always been mainstay of ideas here since a week ago today.
What I always thought too, but no deny the Bermuda ridge has been trending weaker the past few runs on the GFS and I think it's because of the upper low in the east atlantic has been getting stronger. The SE Canada ridge has been trending stronger on the GFS so it's not climbing north. We better hope the GFS is correct about the Bermuda ridge breaking down.
hopefully Jeff P can make it out to the Frying Pan.
lol He has been pretty good on Flo so far.............. But only time will tell!
Kylo
Member
CMC never really strengthens Florence, lowest pressure I see is 979.
BHS1975
Member
I think it’s too expansive with Florence at 500mb which gives it a northern bias. It was too far north with Jebi for the same reason.
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GFS gets flo all the way down to 908mb as it rotates just east of the OBX for days on end. I know waters near the OBX are extremely warm right now but damn
snowlover91
Member
GFS is not ocean coupled and what it shows would not happen. Dry air from land and upwelling wouldn’t allow it to keep strengthening like the GFS shows. I think the GFS is also a bit too far east. Euro tonight is important. As a summary here’s what models have shown tonight so far.
GFS - Slightly east and stalls.
CMC - Basically the same landfall location
ICON - Slightly east
NAM - West and faster
UK - Huge east shift, can it really be trusted at this point? Stalls it offshore by hour 120.
Euro, FV3 and NAVGEM are the 3 other main runs left.
So far out to hr. 42 00z HMON is coming in quite a bit further south and west from 18z.
Meanwhile Florence is really going to town right now. She's really trying her damndest to make a resurgence.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir
Brent
Member
HWRF is slightly east of the 18z, maybe a little east of Wilmington
Edit, into Wilmington again, a little weaker than previous run
Edit, into Wilmington again, a little weaker than previous run
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Euro NW of gfs so far at 72
Brent
Member
Euro headed for landfall likely around 120, west of the GFS at 96
people rarely talk about cane size... how large is this storm compared to others?
Cary_Snow95
Member
Euro makes landfall in Wilmington again. Bad look