• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Hmmm..
ecmwf_florence.png
 
Hour 60 it looks like the Euro is just about stalled east of ILM. Now where she goes is the big question. My guess would be a push west or wsw.
 
Western edge of the Atlantic ridge eroded quicker allowing a little more northward movement.... somebody make the madness stop
 
How far north this gets before the west turn is going to be critical. This run appears to be north of the 00z run last night a little before the west turn, but I could be wrong?
ecmwf_florence.png
 
I guess the GFS led the way? Euro is stalled off eastern NC rotting away. Where the GFS has been past 36 hours.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We'll have to see what the EPS says, if it comes back north at least we'll have agreement for once lol.
Click to expand...

Yeah EPS should be interesting. I thought the Euro might trend south since GFS, HMON and HWRF did but it looks like it was a touch weaker with the ridge allowing a little more of a north shift. It seems we have pretty good agreement on Wilmington area as the point where this stalls but still plenty of time for that to change and small changes will be difficult to forecast even 48 hours out... I don't envy the NHC because this is a tough one to forecast with the stalling.
 
By 96 this is drifting SW very slowly... wow. Wilmington is in a very bad spot and all the surrounding beaches as a category 3/4 storm that just slowly weakens would be a nightmare... especially the northeast side of the eye where the water will keep piling up.
 
Assuming this was to play out exactly as the model predicts, would this remain hurricane status while sitting stalled off of the coast? What effect does this have strength wise?
 
And now heading for Charleston..... good grief

edit: I stand corrected looks like she's bypassing Charleston, heck maybe headed for Ga
 
To illustrate how difficult a time the models are having with what happens, look at the Euro run from 12z yesterday. The remnants are in the Apps.
ecmwf_z500a_watl_6.png


Now today the remants are stalled off ILM.
ecmwf_z500a_watl_5.png
 
The frustrating thing is the models are all over the place with what happens with Flo once she gets here. They have been pretty consistent on Flo coming somewhere between the NC/SC border and Morehead City, but they have showed her going inland to the NC mountains, inland over Raleigh like Fran, inland to SC, and just sitting and spinning at the coast. And that has all been in the last two days.
 
BlountCountyALwx said:
Assuming this was to play out exactly as the model predicts, would this remain hurricane status while sitting stalled off of the coast? What effect does this have strength wise?
Click to expand...

Hard to say, probably weaken somewhat due to upwelling cooler water and sucking in dry air of the US. On the flip side though TCHP is pretty good off the coast in the Gulf Stream, so if it can hold off dry air, weakening would be slow.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The frustrating thing is the models are all over the place with what happens with Flo once she gets here. They have been pretty consistent on Flo coming somewhere between the NC/SC border and Morehead City, but they have showed her going inland to the NC mountains, inland over Raleigh like Fran, inland to SC, and just sitting and spinning at the coast. And that has all been in the last two days.
Click to expand...

Good news for us, a nuisance event for the triangle though. Bad news for places south/east of us.
 
Does the intensity of Florence matter as it relates to the track, as she runs into the blocking ridge? The models have trended weaker with the storm. But assuming it strengthens beyond what they are indicating, could that matter as to where/if the stall occurs?
 
Welp... that's it, I'm convinced that no models or anything else know where this damn thing is going. I'm still expecting a Wilmington to Raleigh I40 freight train, but who knows. It could never even make landfall at this point and do a 360 just before Oak Island and OTS
 
Kylo said:
Good news for us, a nuisance event for the triangle though. Bad news for places south/east of us.
Click to expand...
Part of me says we are in the clear because almost all models stall now as it approaches the coast (except the Ukmet) but on the other hand the Euro shifted a good bit north prior to the stall and if it stalls later oh boy.
 
Kylo said:
Good news for us, a nuisance event for the triangle though. Bad news for places south/east of us.
Click to expand...

But it is hard to know what to believe. This solution isn't necessarily correct.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top