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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

0Z GFS: 500 mb ridge weakest of last 4 GFS runs. That along with 0Z gfs position the most east by a slight amount tells me it will very likely be further east near nc.
 
Kylo said:
UK a complete whiff off the coast. Stalled so not sure what happens after day 6. Good news though.
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The UKMET has been pretty awful. People love to take shots at the gfs for good reason, but UKMET deserves it for Flo imo. It was awful with Jose last year despite doing great with Irma.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_22.png
 
Arcc said:
Hmm our record breaking ridge may have been modeled too strong in the mid to long range. Wouldn't be the first time this summer.
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The Bermuda ridge has been trending weaker each run on the GFS. The Euro can model ridges to strong in the day 5-7 range.

gfs_z500aNorm_atl_fh120_trend.gif
 
GaWx said:
The UKMET has been pretty awful. People love to take shots at the gfs for good reason, but UKMET deserves it for Flo imo. It was awful with Jose last year despite doing great with Irma.
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I don't remember if someone here said it or someone at amwx said it, but it was said that the UKMET is usually consistently right or consistently wrong. There's not much of a middle ground when it comes to it forecasting tropical systems.
 
About this time frame last year, day 5-6, Irma was modeled to hit the SE coast and it started ticking west each run and ended up hitting the Keys and western FL. NC has been very fortunate to miss direct hit hurricanes since Isabel, with the weakening of the Bermuda ridge and no upper low to pull it in it will hopefully rot away just off the coast and then slide out to sea.

Very surprised that UK went from a direct MYR hit to a east of GFS.

UK site. Have to tilt your head.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021
 
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