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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

snowlover91 said:
The old GFS has been a bit off for sure with it's solutions but since landfall hasn't occurred yet we still can't say it's "wrong" yet until verification time (although it likely is). The FV3 has been remarkably consistent too since 00z Saturday with a Myrtle Beach to MHX zone as potential landfall.
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Agree on FV3
 
GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif
 
For landfall EC has been consistent but inland it has been jumping north and south wildly. Just look at 12z Sun for the most recent 2 runs. Jackson KY vs Florence SC. I have kids in eastern VA and would love for this to get dialed in a little better so I know where to send them.
 
FV3 looks a little better for the Triangle. I have family in the area and they are all worried. Not out of the woods by any means, but its looking like it might be possible the worst could go south of them.
 
It will be interesting to see how much further south this can get into SC. For the triangle, another small shift south on the FV3 would do wonders with flooding, more of windy/nuisance event. Would be bad for FAY and the Sandhills though.

Though a south shift on the UK would put the triangle in the crosshairs, yet still bad with the 12z run.
ukmet_florence.png UKrain.png
 
You think stronger 95 gets the more west Flo goes? Idk I'm curious
 
Everybody seems to be doing that SW/W jog... Anybody in Southern SC coastline doesn't need to get comfortable yet that it will be only a glancing blow
 
It seems the theme for today with the models has been moving landfall a little further south to southern NC and northern SC, and then moving WSW inland. Better for inland NC, but worse for inland SC
 
Brick Tamland said:
It seems the theme for today with the models has been moving landfall a little further south to southern NC and northern SC, and then moving WSW inland. Better for inland NC, but worse for inland SC
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Which also means parts of GA could get impacted by Florence.
 
2 pm intermediate advisory keeps the winds at 130 mph and the pressure at 950 mb, but does say:

...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN SIZE...
 
snowlover91 said:
Now we just wait for the Euro to see what it shows. I would expect the NHC to adjust their track later today if the Euro/EPS shows a similar track to the 00z run or shifts southwest.
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I wouldn't be shocked at all if Flo ends up SC/GA coast when it's all said and done. But that's just my 2 cents
 
WXinCanton said:
By the time it gets here its pretty much spun out. Sure we would get some rain, but that's about it. Just curious why would you not share your location?
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Pure speculation but I wonder how far inland this holds together if it gets stronger or goes annualar
 
Hmm Euro is north and east from yesterday's 12z run but it may not matter depending on how this stalls/turns.
ecmwf_z500a_watl_4.png

Here is today's run.
ecmwf_z500a_watl_3.png
 
Go figure the Euro is a little east of it's 0z run...

of course @48 it's slowing and bending back westward
 
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