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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

LOL....Man I don't mean to goof but this King Euro is just as big a mess as anything else out there. I have very little experience reading these things but that system in the gulf has to be screwing everything up. The NHC has a nightmare on its hands for sure because the last run of the Euro just don't make sense
 
Rain Cold said:
Does the intensity of Florence matter as it relates to the track, as she runs into the blocking ridge? The models have trended weaker with the storm. But assuming it strengthens beyond what they are indicating, could that matter as to where/if the stall occurs?
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Nope it's all bc of 95L!!!!!!!!

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Euro basically same track of it's 0z just further south (after initially being a little more north and east)
 
So we have good agreement now for a stall somewhere off the NC coast around Wilmington, question is where Florence goes after that? In weak steering current setups models can become very chaotic and that's what we are seeing now as models try to resolve the ridge position, strength, etc. What a nightmare to forecast.
 
metwannabe said:
Euro basically same track of it's 0z just further south (after initially being a little more north and east)
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For comparison, last night's track
0e3460a4e417185b6a3cece2f45c7874.jpg


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Here's the 12z GEFS tracks, didn't see them posted on here. Looking forward to the EPS members, hopefully they will clear things up for us because right now models are chaotic after the stall.
06L_gefs_latest.png
 
Well, Wake County Schools are closing early Thursday and will be closed Friday, so we'll probably get some showers and a slight breeze here.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Surprise, surprise a subtropical high is trending stronger on the guidance as we begin to close in on verification. Phil & Larry aren't out of the woods.
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Holy cow - about 3 hours ago the governor of South Carolina cancelled the evacuation order for the three counties at the southernmost tip of the state - what if he has to turn around now and say "Nevermind"!
 
I think this thing is going to be much weaker at landfall due to land interaction as it scrapes along the coast and dryer continental air being ingested. Cat 2 at worst. Much better, from a wind damage perspective, than it plodding along a direct course into the mainland. Flooding will still be an issue.
 
Sglynx1 said:
I think this thing is going to be much weaker at landfall due to land interaction as it scrapes along the coast and dryer continental air being ingested. Cat 2 at worst. Much better, from a wind damage perspective, than it plodding along a direct course into the mainland. Flooding will still be an issue.
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Not necessarily. If you have a Cat 3-4 with a 40 mile wide eye stall off the coast, you are in effect putting the eyewall on the shore. So the coast will not only get the full brunt of the wind, as already mentioned you have a prolonged surge as well. Sure, it will weaken, but much slower than if it made landfall.

Now it would reduce wind damage inland, but a track with the strength the Euro has would create unimaginable damage on the coast and just inland.
 
SD said:
It'll be interesting to see where the EPS goes. Obviously there is a good chance this slows or stops along the coast but a SSW drift along the SE coast from NC to Ga...hard to buy
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Agree! Trends are one thing but dancing around going from a run through central NC to a run through South Carolina to an about face dipsy doo down the coastline into Georgia in the matter of a couple runs just doesn't make sense even to a dingbat like myself. Maybe its right, who knows but at some point "meteorology" has to step in over "modelology"....Just my 2 cents
 
Webberweather53 said:
Surprise, surprise a subtropical high is trending stronger on the guidance as we begin to close in on verification. Phil & Larry aren't out of the woods.

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Webb,
A) I don't want it
B) I'm rather certain Larry doesn't
C) A south moving TS ... :confused: ... never had that experience
and
D) Which is what's gonna get me in trouble here, but I've been hinting without saying so outright for days that the north GA coastline was a very likely target due simply to the sheer and steering current set up. I really pray I'm wrong about the thought ...
The whipping post is now ready ... o_O
 
If that 37" rain verifies for ILM, on top of a potential landfall, geez. This storm has so many characteristics to consider individually. The Governor of SC is also looking like a smart guy from his decisions.
 
BlountCountyALwx said:
If that 37" rain verifies for ILM, on top of a potential landfall, geez. This storm has so many characteristics to consider individually. The Governor of SC is also looking like a smart guy from his decisions.
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People are still going to find a way to rip him to shreds. Heard he cancelled mando evacs for a few if the southernmost counties, but if this verifies he might have to reconsider that and reverse the decision. I've been trying to stress to friends in Wilmington that they might want to dip out but this run is just... Like what?

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LovingGulfLows said:
Tbh, this is much needed rains for North GA.

4h2HgvE.jpg
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Crap...No thanks...I don’t need 7.6 inches of rain. I’ll pass. This is disastrous coastal rainfall all the way from Kiawah to Ocracoke Island. Plus the whole state of SC is under water! Why can’t we get a system 1/4th the size of this to bomb out in January with a strong HP in the northeast and some damn blocking! smdh
 
So judging by the 12z runs there are two main model camps I'm seeing.
1. Some models slow this down on an approach to Morehead City area and slowly drift it inland or over the sounds like the ICON, 32km NAM and CMC.
2. The Euro, FV3, GFS and UK have this either making landfall or stalling off Wilmington, NC before drifting it west or southwest.
 
EPS certainly looks North to me but it's just at the coastline it's about now that things probably start to get crazy

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