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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

metwannabe said:
The Inland threat for North Carolina is quickly diminishing in my opinion

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It has diminished some, but even with the monkey business from the Euro, the weather.us wind gust maps still show 40-60 mph gusts for the Triangle. I don't know how accurate those charts are, though.
 
Actually that probably makes sense considering the angle of approach
Rain Cold said:
It has diminished some, but even with the monkey business from the Euro, the weather.us wind gust maps still show 40-60 mph gusts for the Triangle. I don't know how accurate those charts are, though.
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packfan98 said:
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Good grief.....

Don't be surprised if we move away from a stall to just a change in direction. This is an anomalous situation, but I just don't believe we will get a prolonged stall.
 
When someone gets the EPS "mean" track map, please post it. All these lines are making me go crosseyed.
 
Arcc said:
Good grief.....

Don't be surprised if we move away from a stall to just a change in direction. This is an anomalous situation, but I just don't believe we will get a prolonged stall.
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This. That was my first thought (with my limited knowledge) when I saw the big change in models, that maybe it's finally coming to a consensus where it will make landfall. That the stalling may not ever happen, it would just be a direct hit.
 
Well, after looking over the data, virtually every member of the EPS is sending Florence back South in some way. RUH ROH.
 
packfan98 said:
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Lol! I don't think we have any earthly idea where this thing is going yet. EURO told us...look again at the track...it's shaped in a big ole backwards question mark! That's exactly what it's telling us. Let's just come back Thursday afternoon, then we'll know. lol.

Just kidding, I know we've got to stay on top of this for warning's purposes, but this seems like an exercise in futility at this point.
 
I know the shear will increase closer to the coastline, but the moisture shouldn't be an issue from what I can see on WV
 
packfan98 said:
This has to make it very difficult for the NHC and those who have to make decisions about preparations, evacuations, and closing.
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It would be a logistical nightmare. You have evacuated NC and eastern SC, only to then have to evacuate western SC, GA and heck you have to throw northern FL in at this rate.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The NHC track should be interesting at 5:00.
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Euro reminds me of a reverse hurricane Matthew, but this time it's traversing from ILM to CHS.

EPS QPF. This could stall slightly NW and would be really bad for Raleigh. Verbatim it stalls for 36 hours right over ILM.

EuroQPF.png
 
Someone at the other place made a good point about what the Euro showed and what the models showed for Matthew a couple of years ago.

Sometimes the models wanna do these stall or loops and they just get it wrong.....remember this gem during Matthew, where for several days the models had him looping back the Bahamas then 24 hrs out they dropped it and by 8am Sun he was just east of Hatteras moving NE OTS...that a big track change for inside of 24 hrs lol......not saying that's the case here at all but I always get cautious when they do stalls/loops and course reverses etc....

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All models agree on making it to SE Carolina coast, stalling, and then moving SW to some extent. Question is how far north does it climb.

12zmodels.gif
 
This storm is growing in size and is huge, were ever it hits it's gonna impact a very large area, even possible north Fl. I wouldn't be surprised if Flo slowed down earlier in the track to only take more of a southwest track than what's forecast or what the Euro ens are showing.
 
FWIW (practically nothing), the 18z NAM at 39 is 7 mb stronger and *slightly* SW of 12z at 45.
 
Kylo said:
All models agree on making it to SE Carolina coast, stalling, and then moving SW to some extent. Question is how far north does it climb.

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They all agree now, like they kinda all agreed it would make landfall at the NC/SC border give or take. That changed, now there's a stall and a W/SW drift inland. My question is what's the next change going to be, and to where? To me there is no trend to hold on to because the consensus keeps changing. Still very interested to see HPC new track at 5 pm though. How can it not stall and make the captain hook inland when everything else does at this point? And it'll be kinda fun getting the tv mets to explain that to the general public...
 
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