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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Brent said:
if anything the Euro ensembles look more centered on SC, and still quite a few in FL/GA but it is 3am and I am very sleepy
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I really feel as if Flo will follow path along with EURO because of the fast movement and currently Flo is moving at a nice clip south of due west the last 2 frames.
 
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Webb, you think Flo movement south of west could put a new wrench on things as of the path she goes
 
accu35 said:
Webb, you think Flo movement south of west could put a new wrench on things as of the path she goes
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The movement has to persist for a little while longer to really make a big difference, right now just sitting & waiting to see if we start gaining latitude soon.
 
StoneMtnWx said:
View attachment 6030
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Despite my feeling the chances of being heavily impacted in my area were down significantly from how it looked Friday and despite every major 0Z model (except the just posted NAVGEM) being upper SC northward, the last 2 EPS and GEPS having a nontrivial # of members hitting CHS south to N FL and what appears to be Flo still moving S of due W (I think she now may be down to 24.3 N), are keeping me from reducing that chance further right now.

Note on this new EPS how the slowest developing members are tending to be on the southern side of the band of tracks all the way to the coast. Look closely near 68W at how many more blue members there are on the southern end of the band vs the mainly red ones (stronger) on the northern end. That chart is also telling me that if Flo is still not back N of 25.0N by the time she reaches 60W (she's near 55.5W now), she'd then be within the southern 1/3 or so of the members and a little S of the operational likely meaning southerly adjustments on the Euro to come.​
 
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GaWx said:
Despite my feeling the chances of being heavily impacted in my area were down significantly from how it looked Friday and despite every major 0Z model (except the just posted NAVGEM) being upper SC northward, the last 2 EPS and GEPS having a nontrivial # of members hitting CHS south to N FL and what appears to be Flo still moving S of due W (I think she now may be down to 24.3 N), are keeping me from reducing that chance further right now.

Note on this new EPS how the slowest developing members are tending to be on the southern side of the band of tracks all the way to the coast. Look closely near 68W at how many more blue members there are on the southern end of the band vs the mainly red ones (stronger) on the northern end. That chart is telling me that if Flo is still not back N of 25.0N by the time she reaches 60W (she's near 55.5W now), she'd then be within the southern 1/3 or so of the members and a little S of the operational likely meaning southerly adjustments on the Euro to come.​
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Yeah you're still in the ball game atm and I wouldn't rule this out until we've had 1-2 model cycles following when the HH planes get into Florence on Monday morning. I'm watching it's apparent south of west movement very wearily in Charlotte because I know any deviation to the west of the operational Euro will greatly change the impacts here in Charlotte.
 
The 5AM NHC advisory has Flo down from 25.6N at 11 PM to 25.5N now. I had guessed maybe as far south as 25.3. So, not as far S as I was guessing.
 
GaWx said:
The 5AM NHC advisory has Flo down from 25.6N at 11 PM to 25.5N now. I had guessed maybe as far south as 25.3. So, not as far S as I was guessing.
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Yeah that's definitely good news, I think due to the light northerly mid-level flow over Florence, the mid-level center might be tilted perhaps slightly to the south of the low-level center if anything. Hopefully we start to gain latitude soon.
 
GaWx said:
The 5AM NHC advisory has Flo down from 25.6N at 11 PM to 25.5N now. I had guessed maybe as far south as 25.3. So, not as far S as I was guessing.
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im showing the 5am update to have the center at 24.5N & 55.8W??
 
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