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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Based on a quick Google search the use of the Beta Advection Model does cover beta drift, but I'm not 100% on how or where that data is incorporated into the overall model sets.
BHS1975 said:
Do the models account for beta drift?


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Florence has become a hurricane again, it also lost a little more latitude.
AL, 06, 2018090912, , BEST, 0, 244N, 561W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 50, 40, 100, 1012, 200, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FLORENCE, D, 0, , 0,
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Florence has become a hurricane again, it also a little more latitude.
AL, 06, 2018090912, , BEST, 0, 244N, 561W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 50, 40, 100, 1012, 200, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FLORENCE, D, 0, , 0,
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5am advisory had Florence at 24.5N so didn't it actually lose latitude?

EDIT: Meanwhile, it appears Florence is trying to develop/re-establish an eyewall.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Florence has become a hurricane again, it also a little more latitude.
AL, 06, 2018090912, , BEST, 0, 244N, 561W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 50, 40, 100, 1012, 200, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FLORENCE, D, 0, , 0,
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Looking good on satellite and may be trying to form an eye as it wraps storms around the south side of the circulation.

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Right now
goes16_vis_06L_201809091250.jpg

goes16_ir_06L_201809091250.jpg
 
SD said:
Looking good on satellite and may be trying to form an eye as it wraps storms around the south side of the circulation.

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Yep, eye visible on IR now. Now maybe we have something to really gauge motion.
 
The FV3 and the regular GFS were faster on their latest runs especially the FV3 which gets Florence in and out in two days . Both runs are speeding up the income by trough . Hopefully that ends up being case and Florence gets out of dodge sooner vs meandering for days on end


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As mentioned Florence probably about to go beast mode and if so she's most likely as far south as she us going to go. Expect some poleward motion soon.... really wish it would be enough to miss wide right but that door basically closed

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A NOAA 49 research aircraft is currently descending into Florence to assess its current intensity & overall structure. Glad we have some low level recon to work from today. Florence is already trying to make her case to be a 70-75 KT hurricane before the 11am advisory.

Screen Shot 2018-09-09 at 9.49.07 AM.png
 
Looks like Flo is starting to get a bit more organized and it could be time for take off today. She does still appear to be moving W or even very slight south of due West right now.
 
I know a lot can change but numerous models have TS force wind gust for over 24 hours here, no not Cat 3 or 4 winds but I vividly remember Irene and the duration of those gust, coupled with heavy rains (a la Floyd) and it can wreak havoc. I'm stocking up today and taking some extra precautions to secure my animals (yes my dairy goats). Sharping up the chain saw, filling the gas cans.... I lost 6 trees with Irene and winds never peaked over hurricane force. I am as worried about this system as I have ever been.... and not just for me but for all on here. Pray it turns north soon!
 
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