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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

I think we might need to stop asking IF the models are right and start looking to see what could make the models correct. Where is the blocking hi to force the turn around/loop. Is it in the right place in compared to the models? It would be a little crazy for a small out of place blocker to force such a powerful storm to stomp the breaks like that correct?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Once more that all escalated quickly here with the Euro. Just got a chance to sit down and look at everything and that was an interesting shift. Puts a flooding risk now over N GA if that becomes a trend and also would affect the entire SC coast.
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Man, same here. Just now catching up and nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the Euro. That walk south along the coast toward Charleston then moving into east Georgia looks so odd, and would catch a lot of people by surprise, I fear.

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It’s now casting time! Radar watching time!
 
JC and CJ just tag teamed their 5:00 weather forecast on WYFF and to say they seem concerned is an understatement. They don’t want to raise the white flag just yet but the 12z Euro definitely has them working overtime. Showed sustained wind maps 100mph+ stretching from the OBX all the way down to Charleston with heavy inland impacts. They are giving the latest Euro a lot of credence
 
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GFS crazy part is still showing 947 --, while hanging of coast.... this would be nightmare fuel for areas just to that shoreline in the northern quadrants
 
Im going to stick my neck out on this one and say a stall somewhere east of Wilmington with a SW jog is what’s most likely going to happen. Where it goes from there. The stall and post stall SW trends are evident. I think everything hinges on how off the coast it stalls as to where it will finally make landfall as it moves to the SW. My two pennies
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Im going to stick my neck out on this one and say a stall somewhere east of Wilmington with a SW jog is what’s most likely going to happen. Where it goes from there. The stall and post stall SW trends are evident. I think everything hinges on how far it stalls off the coast as to where it will finally make landfall as it moves to the SW. My two pennies
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You got 5¢ change and pop from the cooler here on those 2 Lincoln heads ... unless they are wheat back pennies ...
 
Sglynx1 said:
there is no way she stalls and maintains strength... that’s an incredibly unbelievable scenario
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Nope but keeping the center off shore and having some movement means it won't be a rapid spin down either. Euro was still in the 970s when it went inland in SC

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Florence looks like a donut with a big bite taken out of it.
 
Someone mentioned earlier that these systems usually stall further offshore than modeled. Seeing that the SW post stall trend has some merit this may be something to think about if you’re trying to pinpoint a landfall. I wish I was good at geometry
 
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