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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

accu35 said:
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West shift
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one two punch if mike tyson were a tropical cyclone eating down on miss carolina.... even if she was asking for it.
 
Florence looks way healthier this morning for sure. Florence is still moving west and hasn't changed latitude since last night. Not good about the models, but they are centralizing on Myrtle Beach to Wilmington. Y'all in NC better be preparing because this isn't going to go well and rushing at day 2 for hurricane prep never ends well.
 
Webberweather53 said:
UKMET ensemble likely still a tad too far south.

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I wonder if something just went wrong with lasts nights UKMet run looking at those ensembles.

I think this was mentioned a few days ago, but watch the size of Flo as ERCs occur as that will effect track. A smaller TC will act more like a bullet and will feel the northern tug slower.
 
Arcc said:
I wonder if something just went wrong with lasts nights UKMet run looking at those ensembles.

I think this was mentioned a few days ago, but watch the size of Flo as ERCs occur as that will effect track. A smaller TC will act more like a bullet and will feel the northern tug slower.
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Yes, a smaller TC with a smaller wind field experiences less beta drift so it gains latitude a little less quickly.
 
For NC, a landfall of Florence into SC would heighten the flood threat (which will be the main hazard here) since most of the precipitation will be near and to the north of the LLC by the time its inland over the Carolinas.
 
Webberweather53 said:
For NC, a landfall of Florence into SC would heighten the flood threat (which will be the main hazard here) since most of the precipitation will be near and to the north of the LLC by the time its inland over the Carolinas.
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Do you think 0z Euro EPS is more clustered around SC than the 12z? What’s your thoughts on track just your opinion?
 
At least we are still 5 days out? There aren't a lot of ways to polish this turd. The euro track couldn't get much worse for the I40 corridor from ILM to RDU. 111 just to my east and to the S of rain cold.

I don't find a lot of comfort in anything on the models this morning. The OTS window that was cracked at 0z seemed to have been closed a little at 6z. The 0z eps being south is great for my personal interests but does no favors to the carolinas.

I'm not sure the variables are showing themself right now that would prevent a major hurricane from hitting the Carolina coast line. I feel like these north to south adjustments are within the standard deviation of model error at the lead time we are. But again it's still 5 days out
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SD said:
At least we are still 5 days out? There aren't a lot of ways to polish this turd. The euro track couldn't get much worse for the I40 corridor from ILM to RDU. 111 just to my east and to the S of rain cold.

I don't find a lot of comfort in anything on the models this morning. The OTS window that was cracked at 0z seemed to have been closed a little at 6z. The 0z eps being south is great for my personal interests but does no favors to the carolinas.

I'm not sure the variables are showing themself right now that would prevent a major hurricane from hitting the Carolina coast line. I feel like these north to south adjustments are within the standard deviation of model error at the lead time we are. But again it's still 5 days out
4131e949d2592e5c3cb96d55e38c2fe8.jpg


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Was hoping the 0z UK run was a start of an off shore trend. Still 5 days out though.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Do you think 0z Euro EPS is more clustered around SC than the 12z? What’s your thoughts on track just your opinion?
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Yeah, there's no denying there was a shift in the EPS clustering from eastern NC to SC on the 0z run from last night. As far as I'm concerned, anyone from Jacksonville to Cape Hatteras is still in the hunt to take a direct hit from this storm.

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