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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

A meteorologist in another forum just said that that early data does not incorporate the findings of the atmospheric sample this afternoon. That won't come out until the 0Z model runs. It's only the 18Z model run adjusted with initial position.
 
snowlover91 said:
This is alarming. Here is 00z early cycle guidance with full recon and balloon launch data.View attachment 6017
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No new data in these, not actual 0z model runs...
84b1c1f41839ea7b4c6cd5ec41b16008.jpg


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How hard do you guys think it will be to book a hotel room for Fayeteville NC for Thursday night?
 
GaWx said:
I don’t think there’s been on record a 5 hit the E coast N of Andrew in far S FL.

Meanwhile, the chances of a hit CHS south have come down a good bit from yesterday. I had told others that the chance for a significant effect here (not necessarily direct hit from center, which obviously has low odds) was at about 25% yesterday and it wa enough to get me to make hotel reservations well inland just in case. I’m not canceling them yet, but I do feel the chances of a significant effect here have fallen to about half that (say 1 in 8 or so). Still high enough to be wary as it would still be 5-6 days away meaning unpredictability still there, especially with 15 of 51 12Z EPS members and ~8 of 21 12Z GEPS members CHS south, but certainly encouraging trends.

Meanwhile, wherever this does hit if it does, I hope for the best. Hopefully, she’ll stay OTS, which though not likely is a legit possibility imo, especially is she gets very strong and slows down near the coast.
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Everyone from Northern FL to possibly coastal NJ/NY needs to keep their eyes on this. Though I feel like the coastal Carolinas will be the most in danger from this storm.
 
As said by others earlier, a Cat 2 created a freaking inlet in the OBX. A Cat 4 or 5 might just completely destroy an island if there was a hit.
 
SimeonNC said:
Everyone from Northern FL to possibly coastal NJ/NY needs to keep their eyes on this. Though I feel like the coastal Carolinas will be the most in danger from this storm.
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Subject to change quickly (obviously) but as of now I think NC has highest possibility of landfall followed by center staying offshore followed by upper SC landfall.
 
I thought Florence would have improved more, but the dry air is unrelenting. Also looking via water vapor IR, there may be a little northerly shear starting to effect the northern part of the storm.
 
I think it will be very important what latitude the eye forms at (assuming it does). As long as it doesn’t form too close to 24.0N (like, say, 24.2N) I’ll maintain my feeling that CHS south is looking much better than they did yesterday. Now if it happened to form close to 24.0, I may have to rethink that. The UKMET and its ensembles had it down there or even further south on a number of runs thus leading to far south solutions. At least one of their runs was way down in the 22s!
 
Arcc said:
I thought Florence would have improved more, but the dry air is unrelenting. Also looking via water vapor IR, there may be a little northerly shear starting to effect the northern part of the storm.
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Yeah and that worries me. The storm is supposed to ramp up again but the dry air and shear keep breaking the storm more. Have to see if Florence can ramp up the next 24 hours or the models may shift south again.
 
Looking at satellite loops just now, it does appear that the center may have dipped to near 24.4N from the 24.6N of the 5PM advisory. Just something to monitor as what may seem like a minor move south can have a much larger domino effect down the road.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah and that worries me. The storm is supposed to ramp up again but the dry air and shear keep breaking the storm more. Have to see if Florence can ramp up the next 24 hours or the models may shift south again.
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I'm curious to see if this becomes Florence's plague. While I highly doubt it hinders it in the long run, how many times over the years have I watched to see major intensification to only end up with a sloppy storm because it could never get over dry air intrusion.
 
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