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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

metwannabe said:
And the FV3GFS was basically unchanged....
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The FV3 has been remarkably consistent so far, this will be a great test to see if it can beat the Euro... the HMON track posted above is a slight shift west. The previous run brought it in about 50 miles to the E/NE of there.
 
I disabled live thread. With the amount of traffic it tends to bog down server resources. Site should speed up.
 
MichaelAndrews said:
Looks like the site is having an issue just had a server message pop up briefly
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Its likely due to too many connections with live thread enabled. It may have to be disabled temporarily later on if issues with the site persist.

Think of it as "storm mode" where some features are disabled to free up server resources.
 
Reminding friends in or near the track of Florence to check the Storm Preparation sticky thread within the Tropical Weather thread.
 
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Thanks for posting that Brick, I was just about to ask if anyone had the 12z HWRF. That's a decent shift north from the 06z run that had it tracking similar to the Euro.
 
1300m said:
The GEFS is always clustered together inside of 72 for the most part. Not enough spread in the GEFS IMO to make it useful. FYI, I am inclined to lean towards a EURO/FV3 blend. I think a Myrtle Beach to Morehead City landfall looks most likely and I'm very impressed with the job NHC has been doing .
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GEFS/GFS isn't even in the NHC cone by day 3-4. Surprised it could be this wrong.
 
1300m said:
The GEFS is always clustered together inside of 72 for the most part. Not enough spread in the GEFS IMO to make it useful. FYI, I am inclined to lean towards a EURO/FV3 blend. I think a Myrtle Beach to Morehead City landfall looks most likely and I'm very impressed with the job NHC has been doing .
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Yeah at this point the GEFS aren't much use... really they have been pretty far off with Florence so far from what I've seen. The FV3 has been remarkably consistent as has the consensus TVCN and NHC track. I would go with those with a landfall between Wilmington and Morehead City as the most likely, assuming she doesn't stall offshore.
 
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@60 looking north?
31e0a38d49e584ce38fcf24b6a95102b.jpg


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Very impressive wind speeds recorded for its look on IR. Assuming no ERC, this has a very high ceiling intensity wise.
 
Euro shifted north and is aligning with other models now. ILM to MHX is the area to watch for landfall and the regular GFS is an eastern outlier IMO. I expect the EPS will adjust north later today as well. The FV3 has been impressing me as it has latched onto the landfall between MHX and ILM for quite a few runs now.
 
Dude I expect that from me, your better than that. Anyway per Allan LF at Cape Fear.... so still damn
SD said:
I was looking at yesterdays 12z but today's isn't that far off

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Snowfan said:
Euro is south of the GFS.
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GFS turns this north into the ridging too quickly and weakens the ridging too fast. I would go with a blend of the FV3 and Euro, they seem to be handling things the best IMO. NHC track is spot on it would seem, kudos to them.
 
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