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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Webberweather53 said:
Florence is beginning to mix and ingest dry air to the south & east of the center, it's going to be a while before we see this storm go nuts, likely won't be today, but later on Sunday or Monday different story.

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So the longer it stays weaker and unorganized, the more likely the southern solutions will be correct?
 
12z BEST track has been updated, no change in Florence's maximum sustained winds (55 KT) but the minimum central pressure has fallen 2mb since the 6z analysis to 995 hPa. This is probably the intensity you'll see on the 11am advisory from the NHC.
AL, 06, 2018090812, , BEST, 0, 246N, 541W, 55, 995, TS
 
Tarheel1 said:
So the longer it stays weaker and unorganized, the more likely the southern solutions will be correct?
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Yes that would be the general theme and it would favor areas like GA/N FL, but intensity and track are only moderately correlated. There are a host of other players like large-scale steering features, vortex size, etc that will determine the track of Florence too. All of these are interdependent on one another of course to some extent.
 
The models are also handling the weakness over the southeast differently which has a big impact on the track at this range.


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Florence looks much better this morning as far as being vertically stacked vs late yesterday . As Webber pointed out its just gonna depend on how fast it can burp out the dry air .


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Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't be so eager here. While Mimmic looks nice for the moment, there's a noteworthy push of dry air that's wrapped all the way to the eastern side of the circulation and will likely penetrate whatever core is trying to build here and cloud tops have warmed appreciably, this has a long ways to go before we see any very substantial strengthening. Even as the LLC & MLC become vertically stacked, it takes time, usually on the order of 36 hours (or more) for non-linear convective feedbacks and PV redistribution to begin in earnest and allow the core to warm again.

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Yeah I agree it’ll take some time, probably about 24-36 hours depending on how quickly she cuts off and mixes out the dry air. The microwave imagery does indicate a much more organized core though which is the first step to seeing her strengthen tonight or tomorrow. Once she starts I expect her to strengthen rapidly with the warm waters and low shear environment.
 
 
Is anybody anticipating to model nw trend to start like I am? I still feel like the models are overreacting now and we will start to see the track move up the coast as the ridge will not be as strong as projected. Doesn’t this normally happen with recurve projected storms?
 
Stump said:
Is anybody anticipating to model nw trend to start like I am? I still feel like the models are overreacting now and we will start to see the track move up the coast as the ridge will not be as strong as projected. Doesn’t this normally happen with recurve projected storms?
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With what we are looking at at this lead time I think a NE trend is unlikely. Theres just too much of a blocking ridge to the north to believe a NE trend is likely. To me a shift a little more SW would be the more likely outcome. But again we are still 5-6 days away things will change.

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SD said:
Basically, you could even stretch as far south as Savannah.

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Starting to feel a little better about mby, seeing it stay weaker a little longer and the eps and mogreps with clustering south. Still too early and I'm no way wishing this for our friends to our south.

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metwannabe said:
Starting to feel a little better about mby, seeing it stay weaker a little longer and the eps and mogreps with clustering south. Still too early and I'm no way wishing this for our friends to our south.

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Unfortunately, it's a very different ballgame down here in Charlotte atm, a track into South Carolina or even Savannah would bring the core of Florence into the southwestern piedmont.
 
That would be Hugo all over again, I remember the anticipation of riding out a hurricane, it went south and not even a drop of rain or wind at the house
Webberweather53 said:
Unfortunately, it's a very different ballgame down here in Charlotte atm, a track into South Carolina or even Savannah would bring the core of Florence into the southwestern piedmont.
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Webberweather53 said:
Unfortunately, it's a very different ballgame down here in Charlotte atm, a track into South Carolina or even Savannah would bring the core of Florence into the southwestern piedmont.
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Yep. That’s my concern at this time. I further south track around the Savannah area could be devastating for this area.


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