Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[SC_Wildcat]

I'm 50 miles inland of Myrtle Beach and I know its gonna be rough, I'm just hoping we dont wind up on the east side of the storm.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah I have to agree with others here the GFS is likely out to lunch.

 

[Brent]

Florence going for Florence, SC would be so fitting

I said the Carolinas if it it made it to the US a week ago(at the time when OTS was more likely) and yeah noticed that ever since

 

[Snowfan]

GFS is doing a loop off the Outer Banks. GFS has left the building.

 

[Brent]

UKMET near Morehead City

 

[Meteorologist1999]

What is up with the 12z CMC not running yet.

 

[Snowfan]

What is up with the 12z CMC not running yet.

IMO, Too much server traffic.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS completes the loop and hits North Carolina as a Category 5.

 

[RollTide18]

Any possibility of a Cat 5? I hope not but this is strengthening fast.

 

[snowlover91]

I think the NHC track with this coming in around Wilmington is very reasonable and likely close to what we will see. Certainly the center could pass to the north or south of them some but the Euro is probably overdoing the ridging a bit and GFS breaking it down too quickly. The FV3 at 06z and 12z UK are a nice middle ground.

Btw, the 12z UK hits near MHX based on rough images.

 

[Stormsfury]

Any possibility of a Cat 5? I hope not but this is strengthening fast.

Unfortunately, yes. At the rate Florence is currently deepening, I expect she will continue to do so at least for tge remainder of the day.

 

[Snowfan]

Any possibility of a Cat 5? I hope not but this is strengthening fast.

I think it will become a Category 5 but it will have a EWRC and just weaken back into a Cat 4.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS-FV3 initiated too weak. 967 MB.

 

[Brent]

GFS goes inland... next Monday...

 

[RBR71]

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[Webberweather53]

Doubt the euro is overamping the ridge...

 

[Storm5]

IF the GFS track were to be correct ( which we all assume it’s not ) it’s not gonna maintain that strength sitting there for 24 hours before making landfall . Why the model doesn’t account for upwelling is beyond me .


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[Stormsfury]

First pass didnt sample the NE quad either. More E and SE quad on recon...

 

[Elizabeth]

IF the GFS track were to be correct ( which we all assume it’s not ) it’s not gonna maintain that strength sitting there for 24 hours before making landfall . Why the model doesn’t account for upwelling is beyond me .


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I read on another forum that the GFS does not factor upwelling in its models (hopefully one of the things that will be tested in the beta GFS system)

 

[NCSNOW]

Off of masters Blog

to 2012.

Figure 5. Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) storm tide image for a composite maximum surge for a large suite of possible mid-strength Category 3 hurricanes (sustained winds of 120 mph) hitting at high tide (a tide level of 2.3) near the North Carolina/South Carolina border. What’s plotted here is the storm tide--the height above ground of the storm surge, plus an additional rise in case the storm hits at high tide. Empty brownish grid cells with no coloration show where no inundation is computed to occur. Inundation of 15 -22’ can occur in a worst-case scenario along most of the coast. Note that not all sections of the coast will experience this surge level simultaneously; the peak values would occur near and to the right of the storm's center where it makes landfall. The image was created using the National Hurricane Center’s Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. See our storm surge inundation maps for the U.S. coast for more information.
A storm surge of 15 - 20' possible from Florence
The South Carolina and North Carolina coasts are extremely vulnerable to high storm surges, due to the large area of shallow water offshore. Two of the three historical Category 4 hurricanes that have hit this region generated a storm tide 18 - 20 feet: Hugo of 1989 and Hazel of 1954. The other storm--Gracie of 1959--did not (it hit at low tide, significantly reducing the coastal flooding). The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal lunar tide, measured in height above sea level. The National Hurricane Center uses the terminology “height above ground level” when discussing the storm tide, meaning the height the surge (plus tide) gets above the normal high tide mark. If Florence is a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, it has the capability of generating a 20-foot surge along a 10 – 40 mile stretch of the coast where the right-hand eyewall comes ashore.

 

[SD]

Doubt the euro is overamping the ridge...

Agreed. I'd be more inclined to believe other models are eroding the western part of the ridge too much

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[Brent]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[snowlover91]

Doubt the euro is overamping the ridge...

Euro has a known bias to do that at times and I expect the 12z Euro will adjust north a touch probably back to the ILM landfall idea. ILM to MHX seems to be the area of greatest risk if you blend and account for the biases.

 

[WeatherAddiction]

Well the more West movement over WNW could shift it south even more

 

[Webberweather53]

Euro has a known bias to do that at times and I expect the 12z Euro will adjust north a touch probably back to the ILM landfall idea. ILM to MHX seems to be the area of greatest risk if you blend and account for the biases.

Ehh that’s not true at all, the euro does better than most guidance in cases like this, Irma is a classic example.

 

[Brent]

Ehh that’s not true at all, the euro does better than most guidance in cases like this, Irma is a classic example.

there's a reason the NHC is usually really close to the Euro

They also have outright called the GFS an outlier

 

[Rain Cold]

So far, we have the ICON, the UK, the GFS, and the CMC locked in on OTS or barely into eastern NC. As much as I’d like to give the nod to the Euro, that’s a lot of globals against. Wonder if it’ll hold its course? I would have expected to see one of those others cave by now. We’re not that far away.

 

[Snowfan]

Euro runs in like 13 minutes so let's see if the OTS trend in the models continue.
Edit: Actually it starts at 1:45 PM. Just checked the model time schedule.

 

[snowlover91]

Ehh that’s not true at all, the euro does better than most guidance in cases like this, Irma is a classic example.

Euro has had a SW bias in the short term as evidenced here. Whether that plays into things going forward remains to be seen but it's worth nothing. For those who want to look at the model bias I would encourage you to check out this link, some great info on there and you can see what models are doing best with verification scores, bias, etc. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

 

[snowlover91]

So far, we have the ICON, the UK, the GFS, and the CMC locked in on OTS or barely into eastern NC. As much as I’d like to give the nod to the Euro, that’s a lot of globals against. Wonder if it’ll hold its course? I would have expected to see one of those others cave by now. We’re not that far away.

New UK shifted west with a track close to the consensus. Still lots to determine going forward and I expect the Euro will adjust north a touch.

 

[snowlover91]

Recon just found an extrap pressure of 942.8, about 2mb lower than the last pass.

 

[RBR71]

She's finally just north of 25N and appears to have a more northern component to her movement.... maybe wnw as opposed to just w, let's see if this continues

 

[Webberweather53]

Euro has had a SW bias in the short term as evidenced here. Whether that plays into things going forward remains to be seen but it's worth nothing. For those who want to look at the model bias I would encourage you to check out this link, some great info on there and you can see what models are doing best with verification scores, bias, etc. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

The synoptic pattern going forward is much different than what we’ve seen so far and many of those short term forecast issues occurred without the inclusion of HH data to initialize the model. There’s no systematic SW bias in the euro as you tried to assert earlier, there is in the UKMET but it’s been all over the place

 

[No snow for you]

The GFS stall takes place on the Gulf Stream. Maybe why it bombs out.

 

[Webberweather53]

Many were assuming the Euro would adjust north yesterday based on other guidance and we know how that worked out, 0z EPS guidance shifted south in fact...

 

[RBR71]

The GFS stall takes place on the Gulf Stream. Maybe why it bombs out.

No... it is not coupled to the ocean therefore it does not take into account upwelling of coolers waters. It's a serious flaw with the GFS

 

[RBR71]

 

[SnowNiner]

So far, we have the ICON, the UK, the GFS, and the CMC locked in on OTS or barely into eastern NC. As much as I’d like to give the nod to the Euro, that’s a lot of globals against. Wonder if it’ll hold its course? I would have expected to see one of those others cave by now. We’re not that far away.

Yep, and the EURO track would be so rare...that gives me more credence to the N/NE clip scenario that usually plays out.

 

[packfan98]

I'm interested in seeing what the fv3gfs says.