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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

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Let start with this
Regrettably ...
 
Yeah, it doesn't look like many of the EPS members are going to recurve on this run. The intensity over the next 60 hours will tell the tale. We should be rooting for it to get stronger more quickly...seems weird to say...
Not sure about that, even if it got strong quick I think the escape route is all but out the window.... for us if it gets stronger quicker it could spell trouble. Anyway with that said looks like most of the Euro ens members are stronger sooner then the op run
 
Oh man this 12z EPS run is ugly, there are some that blow Florence into a beefy major hurricane and still plow it into north-central Florida, intensity will certainly help push it north some but it doesn't explain everything, especially if the ridge just gets stronger.
Yeah, unfortunately if that ridge becomes a record breaker in itself as you've been mentioning, there may be no way a cat 4 can even push it much. I see 2 camps, one a S GA / FL, and another being the NC / Scrape the coast ones. It becomes obvious around the 70W mark.
 
How fun, one member goes straight though here. NOT. It's those Savannah landfalls that plow straight though Macon that worry me. Many Phil would agree are worrying to his area as well. Unfortunately, the further south members may be stronger in the end due to more water time.
Yeah worrisome to say the least....
 
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