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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

metwannabe said:
This is too serious a situation for banter I know.... but keep the updates coming guys, I'm stepping away to suffer the first casuality of Flo..... headed to Lowe's and Wal-Mart

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God Speed!
The 12z runs could have this new flight info?
 
I know it’s the pretty bad for tropics NAM. But fwiw, it’s 12Z 72 hour position is 100 miles NNW of its 6Z run’s hour 78 position.
 
Officially back to a hurricane now.
...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.4°N 56.3°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
 
145023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
GaWx said:
I know it’s the pretty bad for tropics NAM. But fwiw, it’s 12Z 72 hour position is 100 miles NNW of its 6Z run’s hour 78 position.
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594dm heights along the NE coast and into NE NC. Looks like it's actually trying to bend back west northwest at 84.

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I wish, I so wish, I hadn't opened that link...

That information put the eastern eyewall right on top of me
NCHighCountryWX said:
Complete Sunday Morning Florence Package available in PDF file

Key Points:

  • After high altitude sampling of the offshore environment ahead and north of the storm yesterday, the ridge to the NE and N of Florence is now trended to be stronger
  • Ensembles have shifted SW with some members back into South Carolina
http://wnharrell.com/wxevents/florencesep18/florence09SEP187am.pdf
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It is interesting to note that while the
ensemble means from the ECMWF and UKMET are west of the NHC
forecast, the strongest members are on the right side of their
ensemble envelope. Thus, the new NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous one, and continues to lie between the corrected
consensus and consensus aids. The Ohio Valley ridge is concerning
because Florence could stop moving pretty quickly around day 5,
potentially leading to a serious heavy rain episode and inland flood
hazard.
 
When I was a dumb 20-something year old who had only a rudimentary understanding of tropical weather, and depression/suicidal ideations, this was my approach. Funny how things change as ya get older... Well, for some anyway.
Webberweather53 said:
We'll just let natural selection run its course...

View attachment 6046
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Dr Navarro, TWC, said slower the storm moves, the better chance of reaching Cat 5
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Officially back to a hurricane now.
...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.4°N 56.3°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Click to expand...

I’d think this strengthening would favor the more northerly ensemble members since the weakest members have tended to be among the furthest south. Nevertheless, the lack of latitude gain to this point should be watched very carefully as the NHC has it already starting to gain some and to be up to 24.5N at 8PM EDT and all the way up to 24.9N at 8AM EDT tomorrow. Will it actually get that far north by these times? Also, I think a pretty key benchmark per the 0Z EPS members will be whether or not it is N of 25.0N when it reaches 60W.
 
Yeah we need to start gaining some latitude within the next advisory or two. I would definitely not rule out a hit even down into GA until late Monday or early Tuesday at the earliest, still way too much uncertainty atm.
tr14 (1).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah we need to start gaining some latitude within the next advisory or two. I would definitely not rule out a hit even down into GA until late Monday or early Tuesday at the earliest, still way too much uncertainty atm.
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Wow, that's pretty far south! Well below that 25N threshold we've been eyeing.
 
12Z gfs furthest N of at least last 4 gfs runs at hour 60. Yeah, Webb, that’s highly unlikely.
 
This may be stupid but based on this northern bias is there a certain distance you could potentially adjust the final track to get approximate estimate, say a 150 miles southwest of what the GFS ends up showing?
Webberweather53 said:
GFS has Florence passing over 24.7N by 18z (~3pm) today, good luck with that.
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Per visible loops, I think Flo is now ~24.35N and I’m guessing she’s moving about due W.
 
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