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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

metwannabe said:
Almost looks like 2 camps, one that still trying to stay just off shore and the other starting to key in on Ga/SC... definitely not good trends for the SE.
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Looks like 3 camps to me with ots/sc/ga with central NC in the clear yay


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She's maintaining despite continued significant shear, but the road ahead is primed for explosive development, light shear and look at the SST temps increasing....

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At this point we are about 6 days out from a potential landfall. I expect models will really zero in on things today as the synoptics get nailed down. The overall setup of a stronger ridge is well agreed upon and the biggest difference now is the orientation of the ridging. Honestly, I would lean a blend of Euro/GFS at this point which puts NC at the highest risk. Still plenty of time for things to change but at 5-6 day leads and in this type of setup I don't expect huge changes, just small shifts north/south based on modeled intensity changes.
 
The thing that might save NC from a hit is if Flo keeps going further south. I don't think curving out to sea is going to happen now.
 
What concerns me most about a potential landfall, especially if she heads to NC, is usually our storms are coming from the Bahamas with a NW or NNW motion and weakening due to an approaching shortwave and shear. With the setup for Florence she would be under light to 0 shear with a perfect upper level environment and outflow to strengthen as much as she pleases. In addition the waters off the NC coast are well above normal this year, 29-30C and could in theory support a category 4 hurricane.
cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png
 
snowlover91 said:
At this point we are about 6 days out from a potential landfall. I expect models will really zero in on things today as the synoptics get nailed down. The overall setup of a stronger ridge is well agreed upon and the biggest difference now is the orientation of the ridging. Honestly, I would lean a blend of Euro/GFS at this point which puts NC at the highest risk. Still plenty of time for things to change but at 5-6 day leads and in this type of setup I don't expect huge changes, just small shifts north/south based on modeled intensity changes.
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at a 144hr+ lead time a lot can and will change, models do not have this nailed down and at this lead time they rarely if ever do.
 
snowlover91 said:
What concerns me most about a potential landfall, especially if she heads to NC, is usually our storms are coming from the Bahamas with a NW or NNW motion and weakening due to an approaching shortwave and shear. With the setup for Florence she would be under light to 0 shear with a perfect upper level environment and outflow to strengthen as much as she pleases. In addition the waters off the NC coast are well above normal this year, 29-30C and could in theory support a category 4 hurricane.
cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png
Click to expand...


This is an important point, because in cases where we have a hurricane curving in front of an approaching trough, it usually weakens on approach due to shear and their prolonged proximity to the contiguous US increases the chance dry air is ingested into their cores, Floyd (1999) is the most classical example of this, wherein it was almost a category 5 hurricane in the northern Bahamas and weakened to a 2 by the time it reached NC due to both shear and dry air being advected in by this shear. Irene (2011) is also a good case. Florence is not going to follow this mold
 
DopplerWx said:
at a 144hr+ lead time a lot can and will change, models do not have this nailed down and at this lead time they rarely if ever do.
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I agree a lot can change but the consensus right now is indicating a NC risk and the chances of this going OTS have decreased significantly with recent trends. We are going to be in the Euro's wheelhouse by tonight and GFS has been trending towards the Euro/CMC solutions which adds further confidence in the setup. The synoptic setup is remarkably similar on all the major models as well and generally I've found that with strong ridging the Euro is the superior model in those instances. At this point I think there is enough agreement to say this will probably make landfall or skirt the coast... the big question is where.
 
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