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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

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Yeah much closer in than 12z
 
Looking back at it, the GFS and Euro are really similar with the stall and the location of the stall. The Euro makes landfall further west but stalls at the same latitude as the GFS. Seems like were getting agreement on a stall.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Looking back at it, the GFS and Euro are really similar with the stall and the location of the stall. The Euro makes landfall further west but stalls at the same latitude as the GFS. Seems like were getting agreement on a stall.
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One thing we can hope for is Florence slows down even more and allows the stall to happen sooner, away from the coastline.
 
Wow, the GFS has it coming back south and then going further inland.
 
Brent said:
45 inches of rain near Hatteras and its not even done
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about the only, and only, thing good about that is there's a big place to run off in to; can you imagine 45" at the top of the Cape Fear? Jeeze, all of coastal NC would be under water and Wilmington would float away ...
 
Some dropsondes went into the gfs. There will be more to come with the evolution of the ridge not yet determined. 18z was a shift to the left. This may not be the last shift left
 
Based on the HWRF through hr 54, the 18Z will very likely come in quite a bit further N than the far S outlier 12Z.
 
This HWRF run is further north of the 12z largely because it's showing Florence becoming a category 5 hurricane in under 72 hours, that seems a little too fast but I guess it's possible.
 
SD said:
Lots of crazy totals
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Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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This would permanently alter the OBX. Would be hard to come back from this. They already have new inlets and sounds forming on a relatively regular basis but this storm would create some of its own
 
It looks like the models are now showing Florence starting to strengthen overnight tonight while yesterday the strengthening wasn’t shown to start until tomorrow night. It makes sense for a northern correction on the southern end of the modeling. The next thing to focus on is the forward speed??? Should we be rooting for it to be a slow mover so it will possibly stall out to sea instead of catapulting onshore before stalling?
 
I stayed at my father in law’s cottage at kill devil hills this past summer and the whole island is literally sitting on a sand bar. They build and build and build and wonder why the sandbar is disappearing into the ocean. Hurricane Isabel created its own inlet on the OBX and if some of these OBX landfalls come to fruition I’m afraid Florence may do the same
 
I have a friend that I went to high school with and they just told me Jim Cantore is in Oak Island NC right now..
 
And I have another friend saying he just saw on TV that Jim is headed to Charleston..I’m not sure what to believe
 
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