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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Ridge was solidly weaker this run and still tracked over ILM then up I95. Scary but hope a little more weaker to get off shore.
 
I’m very encouraged here and would be from FL up to CHS based on the 12 trends, esp UK. UK and it’s ens has really caved not surprisingly due to left bias as well as earlier too far SW initializations. Now that it is initializing correctly and adjustments are being made for its left bias, it is coming in much further N.
In my long history of following tracks to the SE coast, more often than not they have shifted N not S. Irma was an exception.
 
SD said:
That's 25 miles from my house

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All I ever wanted from Flo, was her rain!! You can keep the slight breeze!
 
After making landfall it barely moves for 24 hours
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_7.png

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While we do have sampling from the storm itself, we still need to wait for the upper level data before we can really figure out what's going on. Not sure, but I wonder if sampling the storm only and the run making it stronger and resulting in an unsampled environment ahead could have made this run further north or south than if it had already been sampled. That's why I'm waiting for 0Z so we have both variables sampled before drawing this as a stop to a trend.
 
ForsythSnow said:
While we do have sampling from the storm itself, we still need to wait for the upper level data before we can really figure out what's going on. Not sure, but I wonder if sampling the storm only and the run making it stronger and resulting in an unsampled environment ahead could have made this run further north or south than if it had already been sampled. That's why I'm waiting for 0Z so we have both variables sampled before drawing this as a stop to a trend.
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Exactly, agreed 100%.
 
Do not like this at all. Praying it goes out to sea. This looks like it could be worse than Fran.
 
SD said:
Yeah looks like it drifts SW between 168 and 192

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So we get 80+ winds followed by a foot of rain..... you couldn't draw up a more catastrophic situation, it's wrong got to be wrong
 
SD said:
Yeah looks like it drifts SW between 168 and 192

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metwannabe said:
So we get 80+ winds followed by a foot of rain..... you couldn't draw up a more catastrophic situation, it's wrong got to be wrong
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A foot of rain? Oh there's a lot more than 1 foot of rain on this Euro run, already seeing 18" totals thru 180 HR on weathermodels and the storm has a few more days left to spin around and just dump.
 
metwannabe said:
I've got to stop thinking I can let my guard down.... dang it, need this to continue to trend north and east as in ots
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Maybe it's just me, but I've noticed that tropical system tracks tend to trend NE over time on the models. If the Euro went from Charleston to Wilmington in one run that bodes well for this thing to continue to trend OTS. I think this option is very much still on the table for this storm. This storm may end up being different in this respect but I guess we shall see.
 
Webberweather53 said:
A foot of rain? Oh there's a lot more than 1 foot of rain on this Euro run, already seeing 18" totals thru 180 HR on weathermodels and the storm has a few more days left to spin around and just dump.
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I quit taking measurements after a foot because I was getting the trees off my house.... yeah it was a conservative estimate on my part, figured it would be much more. Catastrophic either way man, poop
 
metwannabe said:
I quit taking measurements after a foot because I was getting the trees off my house.... yeah it was a conservative estimate on my part, figured it would be much more. Catastrophic either way man, poop
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Yeah a TC stalling over us for 5 days+, you'll be measuring rainfall w/ a meter stick. Biblical flooding if the Euro panned out.
 
It’s just one run of 3 models! No need for panic over the bullseye rain totals or wind fields 5 days out! Lots of changes yet to come! If your in the 24” of rain bullseye on Wednesday, then pandemonium can commence!
 
I would definitely be worried about the Euro's scenario this run. High hurricane force winds, heavy flooding, and of course likely tornado chances inland. Probably a major coastal disaster plus a large portion of E NC receiving power outages.
 
Storm5 said:
Well that’s 3/3 all global models are NE of previous runs .


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Ironically, the one of few model guidance specifically made for hurricane forecasting (HWRF) decides to go in the opposite direction and head towards FL/GA instead. lmao We still got a LONG way to go, hopefully by Monday we'll have a stronger confidence in model consensus on a landfall point. Assuming that still remains the highest possibility vs OTS or near misses.

EDIT: Meanwhile HMON looks like it might head towards a SC landfall if extrapolated past hr. 126.

EDIT #2: Also the HWRF kinda puts a damper on this idea that a stronger Florence = further north landfall. At 850mb, the winds are 159.2kts (183.2 mph) at hr 126. I'm sure that's grossly overdone, but that's besides the point. As many of you mentioned, too many other players are going to have an effect on the track.
 
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On a side not from the models, the storm still looks horrible. Took in a lot of dry air and it seems it's wrapped all the way into the core again, so I'm not sure if it'll organize any better by tonight and may even take until tomorrow to get what it has in it now out.
 
Seems to be when it reaches 70 W that's where each member seems to split up. Also note that the OP seems generally on the north side of the guidance though there are many supporting members.
 
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