The increased forward speed is the 2nd scariest part! And I love how they basically toss the GFS! It was our only hope!
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
BHS1975
Member
And then it slams on breaks
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snowlover91
Member
Even then the GFS would have been devastating to the Outer Banks with a stalled cat 3/4 for days. Unfortunately there don’t seem to be any good outcomes for Florence right now as they all involve land.
I think the GFS would actually be a worst outcome if it turned out to be right about stalling right off the coast for days like it was showing yesterday vs just landfalling and going inland.
Amazing. I thought it only weakened that fast when it went over mountains. That's pretty flat land in eastern NC isn't it ?
packfan98
Moderator
WeatherAddiction
Member
Is there still a chance for a SW shift causing a landfall in SC?
To start off the 18z model suite, the ICON is still a close miss, but Florence's forward speed is faster vs. 12z and it's moving NNE away from NC instead of looping back to the south and west like the 12z run did.
Absolutely. Still in the cone of uncertainty
ForsythSnow
Moderator
While only several ensemble members from the EPS support it, there isn't that high of a chance unless the models aren't picking up on something. Now if it's SC in general, there is a good chance as it's nearly a NC/SC border landfall. If the storm decides it wants to defy model logic, it could come down the coast some. I've seen strange things happen and after the cone shifts last year with Irma and other storms, anything is possible.
Kylo
Member
Not sure why even to look at 18z GFS because it won’t change. But at day 2 it’s on top of Euro and stout Bermuda ridge.
That’s about right now! Starting out S/W of 12z!
gfs comes in a bit sw than 12z. moves toward the euro.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS trying to come around. Still too far NE
Slowing down and bending west at landfall
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Definitely took a step closer to the Euro (and most other models for that matter) on this run.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's 18Z, so we... keep it because it's actually closer to consensus than previously.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And now here comes the GFS's North Carolina Flooding disaster with a coastal stall.
So yeah after the latest GFS run if I lived anywhere from Dirty Myrtle to Ocracoke island I would be highly concerned right now. Batten down the hatches