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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

GaWx said:
12Z Euro: ~50 miles NW of its 0Z location at hour 84 right on the coast rather than offshore. Breathing a little easier for here for now.
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Another 50 mile jog NW on tonight's Euro run and us folks in the Triangle are going to be sweating this one.
 
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12Z Euro hour 96: Hits CHS from only a barely offshore position (maybe only 10 miles offshore at most) instead of SAV hit from 50 miles offshore like the 0Z had. So, significant N change from 0Z.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Something of note, yesterdays 12z run had a 1006 lp formed just out of the gulf. That system has weakened and just about disappeared on todays run
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I’d be inclined to think that, combined with a slightly different orientation of the OV/NE ridge would allow this broad to drift a bit more north of the previous 0z/12z Kang runs.



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Euro now has it moving along the GA/SC border as a weak hurricane at 108 hours.
 
Euro is the outlier with that track. The other models, UK, GFS, FV3, ICON, CMC are all further north and in good agreement.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Crazy how it gets right to NC and then goes SW. I have seen canes miss NC by curving and going NE, but don't think I have ever seen this setup here in my lifetime.
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I don't think you're going to see it this time either.
 
Storm5 said:
Just 48 hours ago models had this thing crawling through central NC with historic flooding now we are in central to southern SC . It’s amazing


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We've seen it plenty of times with winter storms, but I don't think I have ever seen a hurricane track change so much in such a short amount of time.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Where do you think she will go?
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I've been saying that she will make landfall on the SE NC coast and move inland from there. It may end up going southwest some into central SC, but I think that's as far as it goes. I don't think it will stall just offshore and follow the shoreline exactly all the way to Charleston or the GA/SC line. I think that it will make it inland somewhere around Wilmington and move either west or wsw through upper SC or along the SC/NC border and then turn NW through western NC. I may be proven wrong, but that is what I think will happen. I actually like something like the 12z ICON.
 
Maybe, just maybe today's 0Z Euro will turn out to be the furthest south of any model's run past and to come. Irma notwithstanding, model trends tend to be northward more than southward per my recollection of SE US threats following these for many years. Perhaps the models first needed to digest a stronger Midwest high than earlier thought, thus inducing some new SW motion in the forecast track after the slowdown. However, now that that stronger high has been digested, maybe the trend will resume the typical northward trend as perhaps that high starts to give in a bit more. We'll see. Nobody knows, which is what makes this hobby so interesting. If these were predictable, it would be boring to follow the models. But that's my best guess now, especially since that 0Z Euro was a south outlier for any operational.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've been saying that she will make landfall on the SE NC coast and move inland from there. It may end up going southwest some into central SC, but I think that's as far as it goes. I don't think it will stall just offshore and follow the shoreline exactly all the way to Charleston or the GA/SC line. I think that it will make it inland somewhere around Wilmington and move either west or wsw through upper SC or along the SC/NC border and then turn NW through western NC. I may be proven wrong, but that is what I think will happen. I actually like something like the 12z ICON.
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Brent said:
Seems to be a solid consensus around Wilmington and Myrtle Beach

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Looks like that track could be right.
 
I’m not buying any individual model but what I am buying is the stall and crawl idea. Florence probably stalls east of Wilmington and eventually crawls WSW into northern SC as she weakens
 
Rain Cold said:
I've been saying that she will make landfall on the SE NC coast and move inland from there. It may end up going southwest some into central SC, but I think that's as far as it goes. I don't think it will stall just offshore and follow the shoreline exactly all the way to Charleston or the GA/SC line. I think that it will make it inland somewhere around Wilmington and move either west or wsw through upper SC or along the SC/NC border and then turn NW through western NC. I may be proven wrong, but that is what I think will happen. I actually like something like the 12z ICON.
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One thing for sure, it better start turning more wnw soon if it wants to follow the NHC track.... it's gaining latitude and still cruising today
 
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