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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
W
WeatherLC
Guest
PM sent
On IR, you can see the northern half of the eyewall developing.
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.4°N 57.0°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.4°N 57.0°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Peak now showing 150 mph...
Snowflowxxl
Member
Wow....
EDIT: Just noticed there's a glaring error on this map. lol
Brent
Member
150 mph peak wow
Better hope it weakens before landfall..
Better hope it weakens before landfall..
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Georgia is now in the cone
EDIT: Just noticed there's a glaring error on this map. lol
The NHC must be putting more weight on the Euro, based on this cone!
270
WTNT41 KNHC 092053
TCDAT1
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018
The last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen
to about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with
uncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite
presentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep
convection near the center. Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on
this advisory.
Radar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicated that there were
still a few breaks in the eyewall, possibly allowing some dry air to
mix into the core. This structure has potentially kept Florence
from intensifying rapidly so far. It is likely, however, that the
eyewall will close soon with low environmental shear present,
resulting in a faster intensification rate. The guidance is
remarkably well clustered, with all of the hurricane models showing
category 4 strength within 48 hours, which is uncommon given the
current intensity. The new forecast continues to show rapid
intensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods,
but it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or
the NOAA corrected consensus models. It is worth noting that the
model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
forecast reflects this trend.
The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Florence hasn't gained
much latitude yet, and continues moving westward at about 6 kt.
There is no change to the synoptic reason as a very strong ridge is
forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few
days. This pattern should steer Florence west-northwestward at a
much faster forward speed by Tuesday. On Wednesday, the hurricane
will likely turn northwestward and slow down somewhat due to another
ridge forming over the Ohio Valley. The most notable change from
the previous advisory is that most of the models are showing a
faster motion in 3 or 4 days, which unfortunately increases the risk
of a destructive hurricane landfall. The GFS and its ensemble mean
are outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near
the Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the
southwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of
the ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the
southwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus
far this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a
little bit to the southwest, and is very close to the
corrected-consensus models.
The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission this
afternoon to gather data near and around Florence for assimilation
into the numerical models, and these missions will continue through
Tuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the
central and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800
UTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical
models. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and
intensity forecasts.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.
2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Blake
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/092053.shtml?
WTNT41 KNHC 092053
TCDAT1
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018
The last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen
to about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with
uncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite
presentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep
convection near the center. Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on
this advisory.
Radar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicated that there were
still a few breaks in the eyewall, possibly allowing some dry air to
mix into the core. This structure has potentially kept Florence
from intensifying rapidly so far. It is likely, however, that the
eyewall will close soon with low environmental shear present,
resulting in a faster intensification rate. The guidance is
remarkably well clustered, with all of the hurricane models showing
category 4 strength within 48 hours, which is uncommon given the
current intensity. The new forecast continues to show rapid
intensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods,
but it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or
the NOAA corrected consensus models. It is worth noting that the
model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
forecast reflects this trend.
The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Florence hasn't gained
much latitude yet, and continues moving westward at about 6 kt.
There is no change to the synoptic reason as a very strong ridge is
forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few
days. This pattern should steer Florence west-northwestward at a
much faster forward speed by Tuesday. On Wednesday, the hurricane
will likely turn northwestward and slow down somewhat due to another
ridge forming over the Ohio Valley. The most notable change from
the previous advisory is that most of the models are showing a
faster motion in 3 or 4 days, which unfortunately increases the risk
of a destructive hurricane landfall. The GFS and its ensemble mean
are outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near
the Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the
southwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of
the ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the
southwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus
far this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a
little bit to the southwest, and is very close to the
corrected-consensus models.
The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission this
afternoon to gather data near and around Florence for assimilation
into the numerical models, and these missions will continue through
Tuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the
central and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800
UTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical
models. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and
intensity forecasts.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.
2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Blake
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/092053.shtml?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
EDIT: Just noticed there's a glaring error on this map. lol
Looks like it goes from a major cane to a tropical storm quickly after landfall.
Brent
Member
The new forecast continues to show rapid
intensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods,
but it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or
the NOAA corrected consensus models.
intensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods,
but it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or
the NOAA corrected consensus models.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, sheds 70 mph in 24 hours, but still 70 mph sustained over Fayetteville.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Comes in during the day, too. Not sure if that makes things better or not.
BHS1975
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
True. I think before it was still a hurricane inland at that time, though.
That's the most alarming part of that discussion. 150mph could be a conservative forecast.
bud006
Member
Been getting a few questions from friends of ours down on the Georgia coast (we lived there for a few years in the early 2000s). I've told them there were just enough ENS members on the Euro that I wouldn't dare say all clear just yet.
Now I see the cone has walked back down the coast just a bit to just north of Savannah. Still waiting for the turn off of due west. The further west it goes, the more concerned I am.
Gonna be a long few days for everybody. Please be safe, all.
--30--
Now I see the cone has walked back down the coast just a bit to just north of Savannah. Still waiting for the turn off of due west. The further west it goes, the more concerned I am.
Gonna be a long few days for everybody. Please be safe, all.
--30--