Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Philstorm91]

The last several runs of the GFS have been pretty concerning. A landfalling major hurricane is bad enough. But if she stalls soon after landfall, the rainfall amounts would lead to catastrophe. Just two years ago my own local area had 20 to 30 inches (31 in my own location) in a 36-48 hour time span. The flooding was the worst my area had ever seen, with numerous water rescues. I wish the best for all concerned. Stay safe guys!

 

[DopplerWx]

no latitude gain yet, maybe a slight jog south at the end?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

no latitude gain yet, maybe a slight jog south at the end?

Isn't it suppose to been already gain some latitude??

 

[Arcc]

no latitude gain yet, maybe a slight jog south at the end?

The storm is still showing a very squashed oval profile from west to east. Makes me think the west motion may go on a while yet. Add in that dry air is still getting into the center tells me strengthening will be slow for a little while longer.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The storm is still showing a very squashed oval profile from west to east. Makes me think the west motion may go on a while yet. Add in that dry air is still getting into the center tells me strengthening will be slow for a little while longer.

The longer it takes to gain latitude, the increase chance for the storm track to shift south/west in the longer term.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Only good thing I see up this way is the NHC has it weakening faster after hitting land. Before they had it a hurricane longer inland.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Only good thing I see up this way is the NHC has it weakening faster after hitting land. Before they had it a hurricane longer inland.

It still will be. Allan Huffman on twitter noted that the written discussion kept it as a 100mph storm inland. He thinks they just made a mistake with the graphic

 

[ForsythSnow]

It still will be. Allan Huffman on twitter noted that the written discussion kept it as a 100mph storm inland. He thinks they just made a mistake with the graphic

He must have looked at the wrong advisory, as this is the latest.

INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

 

[Weatherlover92]

18z FV3-GFS is similar to the 12z EURO, tracks Florence well west inland into South/Central NC.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

18z FV3-GFS is similar to the 12z EURO, tracks Florence well west inland into South/Central NC.

The Models continues to shift further south and west something to monitor.

 

[accu35]

I heard Flo is weakening ATM

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[accu35]

thanks

 

[pcbjr]

Folks,
Please be careful; don't play; and stay safe!
Somewhere back in this thread I posted a link to a discussion we had last year on 'Cane preparation and survival. In case you missed it, or if further info is needed, please see the attached checklists. 149 mph, or 100 mph, or 80 mph inland, is not a party and nothing to play with.
Good luck, and sorry to be parenting, but I'd hate for anything to happen that causes any of you to suffer.
Best and please stay safe if you get hit by this little lady ...
Your Curmudgeon, and Friend,
Phil

 

[Yellow Snow]

He must have looked at the wrong advisory, as this is the latest.

Yep, he must have been looking at Advisory #41 from 11:00am which did show 100 mph inland; I made a screen cap of the interactive cone map at the time to send to a friend in Chapel Hill because I found it to be so alarming. If you look at the map now it shows 70 mph inland for hour 120 (which is from Advisory #42 at 5pm).

 

[weatherguy]

 

[Metwannabe]

Folks,
Please be careful; don't play; and stay safe!
Somewhere back in this thread I posted a link to a discussion we had last year on 'Cane preparation and survival. In case you missed it, or if further info is needed, please see the attached checklists. 149 mph, or 100 mph, or 80 mph inland, is not a party and nothing to play with.
Good luck, and sorry to be parenting, but I'd hate for anything to happen that causes any of you to suffer.
Best and please stay safe if you get hit by this little lady ...
Your Curmudgeon, and Friend,
Phil

View attachment 6074 View attachment 6075

I pinned that thread from last year if anyone wants to read for advice or have suggestions to add.... thanks Phil

 

[Brick Tamland]

Confused on what the wind is going to be here. I have seen some maps have 70 mph and some have 100mph

 

[ForsythSnow]

This reminds me, but I think we should make a thread for call maps, idea maps, etc for this storm.

 

[Metwannabe]

Confused on what the wind is going to be here. I have seen some maps have 70 mph and some have 100mph

Really too early to tell.... it could be anywhere from 40 to 100 gust