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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Meanwhile, I wonder if RAH is ever going to update their afternoon AFD?
 
Charlotte Mecklenburg County Schools closed Thursday and Friday....???o_Oo_O Ok, this hype machine is going a bit crazy.
 
And by 45, straight SW down the coast she goes. Never comes ashore like 12z.
 
metwannabe said:
And we're back to the SW movement over water.... oy vey
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It's astonishing that the steering collapses exactly at the coastline and turns SW exactly mirroring the shape of the coastline. I know there's some business about coastal friction, etc. But still. Pretty remarkable if it rides the surf all the way down to Charleston.
 
Maybe we should back off the weakening talk for at least 18-24 more hours. Lest we forget Hugo was a cat 2 that exploded to a Cat 4 just before landfall. Yes, I know it was a completely different environment but I'd just use caution. Hugo was 934 with 140 at landfall.
 
If Flo weakens faster than projected, what are the implications, if any, regarding future track? Does anyone have a feel for whether or not the steering would change much over the next few days vs model projections? Is projected steering similar at various levels?
 
down to 120

...FLORENCE MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 72.5W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
 
Claycochaser said:
Maybe we should back off the weakening talk for at least 18-24 more hours. Lest we forget Hugo was a cat 2 that exploded to a Cat 4 just before landfall. Yes, I know it was a completely different environment but I'd just use caution. Hugo was 934 with 140 at landfall.
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Make the bet then....lol. I'm not.

Writing on the wall seems to be for this thing not to be the powerhouse once thought. I could be wrong but the official forecast is even for this to just lose more strength the closer it gets to the coast. If it can't get its act together now, how much more will it have a problem when it just stalls out interacting with land, in shallow water?
 
GaWx said:
If Flo weakens faster than projected, what are the implications, if any, regarding future track? Does anyone have a feel for whether or not the steering would change much over the next few days vs model projections? Is projected steering similar at various levels?
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Larry, no expert, but weaker probably would give steering currents more influence rather than the high overhead (if that makes sense) and current steering current generally look like this ...

wg8dlm5-1.GIF

which might implicate your location more so ...
 
SnowNiner said:
Make the bet then....lol. I'm not.

Writing on the wall seems to be for this thing not to be the powerhouse once thought. I could be wrong but the official forecast is even for this to just lose more strength the closer it gets to the coast. If it can't get its act together now, how much more will it have a problem when it just stalls out interacting with land, in shallow water?
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I mean...I'm just saying use caution. As far as "getting its act together" it is a large Cat 3 hurricane now. That's a pretty good act. It has had trouble with dry air and some shear coupled with its speed that havent allowed it to "explode". However, outflow is outstanding right now and she's nearing the gulf stream. Just dont be surprised is all I'm saying.
 
Rain Cold said:
Anyone wanna bet me it looks like this on approach? No way.

View attachment 6278
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Have you seen what kind of 'molds' this thing has been shattering? Its starting position, its possible path, ect? Hell at this point a 500mile wide storm with a square for an eye is not off the table for me. Matter of fact, it could split in two and take two different paths. I've about had enough of this one.
 
Claycochaser said:
Maybe we should back off the weakening talk for at least 18-24 more hours. Lest we forget Hugo was a cat 2 that exploded to a Cat 4 just before landfall. Yes, I know it was a completely different environment but I'd just use caution. Hugo was 934 with 140 at landfall.
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Also, Hugo was moving much faster so it had virtually no time to strengthen, but here we are. I wonder what today’s models would have been spitting out had they been around back in September of 1989..
 
pcbjr said:
Larry, no expert, but weaker probably would give steering currents more influence rather than the high overhead (if that makes sense) and current steering current generally look like this ...

View attachment 6279

which might implicate your location more so ...
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If I’m interpreting what your saying correctly that could make it lean closer to what the Euro is saying or is that completely wrong?
 
Looks to me like Florence will be more in the Floyd camp than the Hugo camp. How slow it spins as it weakens will create major flooding issues, likely the worst on the banks of the Cape Fear and other major river basins. This will actually worsen even for a couple of days after Florence passes, similar to Floyd, just a little further south and into northern SC.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
If I’m interpreting what your saying correctly that could make it lean closer to what the Euro is saying or is that completely wrong?
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Right now I'm in PT for a torn rotator cuff and haven't studied much today; will need to look at the Euro later this evening when I can ... sorry ...
 
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