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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
You may be a tad low, depending ...
Michael21
Member
When you believe Hurricane Florence will turn WNW instead of W like it's doing now?I doubt my area will be impacted by this system,but feel there still a outside chance that Georgia could be impacted according to some Euro Ensembles .
Sat images can be deceiving and have to wait a few more frames to see but I swear it looks like a pinhole eye forming.... if so ru roh
BHS1975
Member
accu35
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TWC confirmed it was trying to form an eye. Will see
Yeah no doubt it could be and it's fooled me before, that's why I say a few more frames to see for sure but looks like a solid ring around it....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I agree that this looks to be dry air. Meanwhile the HWRF and HMON are a hair south of their prior runs.
pcbjr
Member
Just one thing I hate to see
A smilin' woman and a frownin' man
With a ring in his nose
And a ring on her hand ...
Savoy Brown Blues Band
Couldn't resist, but feel free to delete ...
packfan98
Moderator
The 18z GEFS is very much in line with other modeling and SW of the 12z run.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah no doubt it's dry air. No way the storm isn't moving and its filling in. Here's the 1 minute updating satellite imagery.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=meso2&product=ir
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=meso2&product=ir
I was thinking it was the eye, but I'm not sure either. Either way there's more hot towers of convection flaring up right on the southside of it. It even seems to be shedding off some of the outer bands and taking on a more symmetrical appearance.
StormNine59
Member
I remember in 2008 having to experience the remnants of Ike merging with a cold front. It was extratropical at that point but the widespread 50-70MPH winds for several hours and that ended up causing many power outages across the state of Kentucky. Some areas closer to the Ohio River that received the higher gusts lost power for almost 1 week. The damage in the state of Kentucky was in the Hundred's of Millions due to all the power issues and the trees down.
If the current NHC forecast is correct a large swath from Myrtle Beach through Raleigh and perhaps as far inland as Snowshoe, WV will experience winds at least at the intensity and duration of what KY experienced in 2008 with Ike and the Cold Front combo. With Hurricane wind gusts as far inland as Fayetteville and Raleigh.
The moral of the story is just because it is a just a strong Tropical Storm instead of a strong CAT 1 or CAT 2 at Fayetteville doesn't spare a large swath of the impacted area from potential power issues and wind damage.
If the current NHC forecast is correct a large swath from Myrtle Beach through Raleigh and perhaps as far inland as Snowshoe, WV will experience winds at least at the intensity and duration of what KY experienced in 2008 with Ike and the Cold Front combo. With Hurricane wind gusts as far inland as Fayetteville and Raleigh.
The moral of the story is just because it is a just a strong Tropical Storm instead of a strong CAT 1 or CAT 2 at Fayetteville doesn't spare a large swath of the impacted area from potential power issues and wind damage.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Anyone think it could go further west before turning north and hit SC instead of NC?
accu35
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LOL, it to early to really say.
That's what I was using and why I said it would take a few more frames to be sure, anyway it does look like it was definitely dry air.... still some deep convection on the south side so it's trying to get going
Of course, that's why SC is also in the cone...... famous words "don't focus on a single point"
Still moving west based on satellite. I don’t think that was an eye, just a burp of dry air!