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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Always thought these maps were overdone although I realize it's a probability map but still, seriously doubt anyone in PA. feels TS force winds
ForsythSnow said:
Literally just this map...
205027_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png

...which is derived from this.
205027.png
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metwannabe said:
Always thought these maps were overdone although I realize it's a probability map but still, seriously doubt anyone in PA. feels TS force winds

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They really are a useless product. The NHC needs to make a different map to depict wind probabilities as these things have existed for far too long.
 
I'm starting to agree with you on this and by that I mean, I'll be shocked if she doesn't trend south and end up dead center SC
Arcc said:
Here is where it gets interesting, all the models show it should be moving WNW now to hit the points. Always a hoot to see how these beasts behave.
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Arcc said:
Here is where it gets interesting, all the models show it should be moving WNW now to hit the points. Always a hoot to see how these beasts behave.
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Yeah, save this image and let's align it over tomorrow's one same time to compare. If Florence decides she's going to keep due west, the models will all be off.
 
metwannabe said:
I'm starting to agree with you on this and by that I mean, I'll be shocked if she doesn't trend south and end up dead center SC

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Selfishly, that would be good for us if the models are wrong.
 
metwannabe said:
I'm starting to agree with you on this and by that I mean, I'll be shocked if she doesn't trend south and end up dead center SC

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Now that would be a bad scenario. She would plow right though the state and Columbia would have some major issues, and so would GA later on. Of course the mountains would have to worry about all the upper level winds that will blast out from the storm. Probably sustained hurricane force at that point.
 
Hurricanetrckr26 said:
What could a further movement west mean for landfall location?
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It could mean a little or a lot. For instance it may move more west now and still bounce back north or it could continue more westward and end up different. The key here is it wouldn't need much to make 100 miles in either way at landfall, which makes a huge difference for those hit.
 
This continued western motion is just a bit concerning, because a small miss at this stage has a larger ripple effect further upstream, if you will.

A landfalling Cat 4 storm just north of Charleston vs. a landfalling Cat 4 storm at Wilmington makes a big difference for western South Carolina and eastern Georgia, as just one impact example.

Far from my area of expertise, but just interesting to watch the continued movement due west at this point. A turn has to come at some point, but I'm always fascinated at how these storms do have a bit of "a mind of their own."

Everybody stay safe!

--30--
 
I haven’t posted much, as I don’t have anything additional to offer beyond what you guys have mostly said. Ridging is anomalously strong, and I think that the OTS solutions are haven’t properly taken that into account. My feeling is southern SC to Wilmington is the most likely strike zone, with a decreasing speed inland. I’m almost inclined to take FL and OTS off the table. By 12z tomorrow, I’ll feel more confident about that.
 
Crazy how far away Flo is and she is supposed to be here in less than 4 days.
 
Fran had gusts up to 79 mph here. I am assuming with Flo being a cat 4 that we could have even bigger gusts than with Fran.
 
Columbia is also one of the lowest parts of the state with large bodies of water nearby (lake murray and broad river)
Just a few years ago experienced the "1000 year flood", which will more than likely happen again if not worse lol
Not to mention even if slamming into SC the storm will still move North after, flooding NC in the process.

This could be really bad for both NC and SC, even as far inland as Greenville if this thing doesn't start moving NW like it was suppose to by now
 
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