Snowflowxxl
Member
NAM is a bit north on this run
-
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
No, the blue dots and others you see are the microwave estimates. The little shaded areas are the uncertainty for the microwave estimates. The solid white dots are the official NHC plots and the little x’s at the end are the forecasted track. The 00z XTRAP confirms the motion as well.
...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT...
11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.6°N 57.7°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.6°N 57.7°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Motion is off to the WNW barely though. Also up to 90 mph and an expectancy of having 150 mph winds longer.
Looks to be moving West still
snowlover91
Member
No, as of 5pm it was at 24.4N and now it’s 24.6N at 11. There is a northerly component. The overall motion is averaged over 12 hours or 6 I believe so it’ll take longer for that to reflect.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT...
11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.6°N 57.7°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
Ugh, pretty much the worst possible track for me.
WeatherAddiction
Member
Tracks might trend SW with these new runs due to the prolonged westerly movement
663
WTNT41 KNHC 100248
TCDAT1
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018
Florence's satellite appearance has continued to improve quite
markedly since the previous advisory. An eye was evident in GOES-16
high-resolution infrared imagery and other channels between
2300-0000 UTC, but it became cloud covered immediately thereafter
due to a strong burst of deep convection in the southern and eastern
eyewall where cloud tops colder than -80C and an abundance of
lightning activity was observed. Since that time, the CDO has
expanded and become more circular, outflow has increased and become
more symmetrical, and an eye has begun to re-appear. The initial
intensity has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory based on a
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt from SAB and NHC
objective intensity estimates ranging from 77 kt to 87 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Once again, there is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic
reasoning. The models appear to be getting better dialed in on both
the location and strength of the developing blocking ridge in the
vicinity of Bermuda during the next 4 days as the mid-latitude flow
amplifies across the CONUS and the northwestern Atlantic. In fact,
the global models are now in very good agreement on forecasting
Florence's upper-level mass outflow being deposited to the north and
east of the hurricane, which will act to further strengthen the
blocking ridge and help to drive the hurricane northwestward toward
the southeastern U.S. coastal region. The new NHC model guidance is
even more tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with
less than a 90 n mi cross-track spread at 72 h and less than 120 n
mi spread at 96 h, just prior to expected landfall. Therefore, the
new official advisory track is essentially just an update and
extension of the previous forecast, and lies between the nearly
juxtaposed HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus track models.
Now that Florence has developed an inner-core ring of deep
convection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air,
rapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for
the next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind
shear conditions, dual outflow jet pattern that will be developing,
and very warm SSTs of 29-29.5 deg C beneath the hurricane. The most
favorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in
about 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its
maximum intensity. After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to
increase to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest, and the
dual outflow pattern is forecast to change to only a single poleward
outflow pattern. This slight degradation in the upper-level
environment, along with slightly cooler SSTs, is expected to result
in a gradual weakening of the powerful cyclone. However, Florence is
still forecast to be near category-4 strength when the dangerous
hurricane makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is an
average of the intensity forecast from the corrected consensus
models HCCA and FSSE, with the latter explicitly forecasting a peak
intensity of 134 kt in 72 hours. It is also worth noting that the
model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
forecast reflects this trend.
The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct another synoptic surveillance
mission early Monday morning in support of the 1200 UTC model
cycle, and these flights will continue through Tuesday. In addition,
upper-air stations across portions of the central and eastern U.S.
are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches to
collect extra data for the numerical models. Hopefully these data
will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.
2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 24.6N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.2N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 34.0N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 35.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/100248.shtml?
WTNT41 KNHC 100248
TCDAT1
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018
Florence's satellite appearance has continued to improve quite
markedly since the previous advisory. An eye was evident in GOES-16
high-resolution infrared imagery and other channels between
2300-0000 UTC, but it became cloud covered immediately thereafter
due to a strong burst of deep convection in the southern and eastern
eyewall where cloud tops colder than -80C and an abundance of
lightning activity was observed. Since that time, the CDO has
expanded and become more circular, outflow has increased and become
more symmetrical, and an eye has begun to re-appear. The initial
intensity has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory based on a
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt from SAB and NHC
objective intensity estimates ranging from 77 kt to 87 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Once again, there is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic
reasoning. The models appear to be getting better dialed in on both
the location and strength of the developing blocking ridge in the
vicinity of Bermuda during the next 4 days as the mid-latitude flow
amplifies across the CONUS and the northwestern Atlantic. In fact,
the global models are now in very good agreement on forecasting
Florence's upper-level mass outflow being deposited to the north and
east of the hurricane, which will act to further strengthen the
blocking ridge and help to drive the hurricane northwestward toward
the southeastern U.S. coastal region. The new NHC model guidance is
even more tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with
less than a 90 n mi cross-track spread at 72 h and less than 120 n
mi spread at 96 h, just prior to expected landfall. Therefore, the
new official advisory track is essentially just an update and
extension of the previous forecast, and lies between the nearly
juxtaposed HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus track models.
Now that Florence has developed an inner-core ring of deep
convection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air,
rapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for
the next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind
shear conditions, dual outflow jet pattern that will be developing,
and very warm SSTs of 29-29.5 deg C beneath the hurricane. The most
favorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in
about 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its
maximum intensity. After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to
increase to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest, and the
dual outflow pattern is forecast to change to only a single poleward
outflow pattern. This slight degradation in the upper-level
environment, along with slightly cooler SSTs, is expected to result
in a gradual weakening of the powerful cyclone. However, Florence is
still forecast to be near category-4 strength when the dangerous
hurricane makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is an
average of the intensity forecast from the corrected consensus
models HCCA and FSSE, with the latter explicitly forecasting a peak
intensity of 134 kt in 72 hours. It is also worth noting that the
model guidance is also significantly increasing the size of
Florence's wind field over the next few days, and the official
forecast reflects this trend.
The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct another synoptic surveillance
mission early Monday morning in support of the 1200 UTC model
cycle, and these flights will continue through Tuesday. In addition,
upper-air stations across portions of the central and eastern U.S.
are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches to
collect extra data for the numerical models. Hopefully these data
will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials.
2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 24.6N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 24.9N 59.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 25.6N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.2N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 34.0N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 35.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/100248.shtml?
Looks like the eye is closed again according to the latest IR scans
snowlover91
Member
Icon had been the one Eastern outlier keeping Florence offshore. As of 00z tonight it appears the ICON is caving to other guidance now too. Escape OTS looks unlikely at this time.
snowlover91
Member
Hour 96 she’s coming in. No changes really. 
snowlover91
Member
CMC landfall
Kylo
Member
UK miss OBX east and actually crawls over VA Beach. Looks like worst of it would be over VA. Long way to go on where this goes.
Snowflowxxl
Member
CMC looks super weak
Snowflowxxl
Member
UK been all over the place all week. It’s honestly the model I would trust the least right now. Absolutely no consistency it’s been a joke.