Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[ForsythSnow]

Florence is definitely still suffering from the dry air and as seen on the microwave imagery, she has an open eyewall, which I'm going to guess that pockets of dry air are making it to the center and forming pseudo-eyes for a short time.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I'm starting to agree with you on this and by that I mean, I'll be shocked if she doesn't trend south and end up dead center SC

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

This is worrisome. This thing is still moving due west. How many times have we seen models peg a landfall 4 days out..rarely if ever. Mathew comes to mind most recently. Yes Matthew was a different setup but we had no idea where that thing was going. If I remember correctly, many models were trying to take it up the west side of Florida through the gulf 24-48 hours out and we all know where it ended up. With that said, we never had model consensus with that hurricane this far out like we do with Florence

 

[NoSnowJoe]

This is worrisome. This thing is still moving due west. How many times have we seen models peg a landfall 4 days out..rarely if ever. Mathew comes to mind most recently. Yes Matthew was a different setup but we had no idea where that thing was going. If I remember correctly, many models were trying to take it up the west side of Florida through the gulf 24-48 hours out and we all know where it ended up. With that said, we never had model consensus with that hurricane this far out like we do with Florence

I remember Hugo, he was headed right for the Golden Isles and people started evacuating. Then all of a sudden he was headed to Charleston.

 

[snowlover91]

A real eye is clearing out now. I don’t think it’s dry air this time. Look at the loop below. Also if this is indeed a real eye it appears to be moving wnw.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-14-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

[snowlover91]

Also she has started the turn over official NHC plots. Look here at the white circles and notice the turn has started.

 

[Tarheelwx]

I wanted to throw this out there as a possibility. There have been a couple of storms over the last few years that were supposed to rapidly intensify and be an utter disaster once hitting land. Of course, we had to wait for dry air to work it’s way out of the system and for the system to vertically align. We waited and waited and the rapid intensification never happened and we ended up with a land falling cat 1 or 2. This isn’t a forecast but something to keep in mind.
TW

 

[WeatherAddiction]

Has this storm moved due west longer than expected?

 

[ForsythSnow]

A real eye is clearing out now. I don’t think it’s dry air this time. Look at the loop below. Also if this is indeed a real eye it appears to be moving wnw.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-14-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Issue about direction: the map isn't dead on vertical. It's from a slight angle. Therefore, a WNW direction can be perceived from that map, but on TT's maps, it's dead W.

 

[Storm5]

A real eye is clearing out now. I don’t think it’s dry air this time. Look at the loop below. Also if this is indeed a real eye it appears to be moving wnw.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-14-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Yeah clearly looks like it’s headed WNW now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ForsythSnow]

Here's what I was talking about.

 

[snowlover91]

View attachment 6082
Here's what I was talking about.

Yeah I realize it’s tilted some but it is moving wnw as confirmed by the official plots,. On the tidbits loop it looks like wnw to me as well.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah I realize it’s tilted some but it is moving wnw as confirmed by the official plots,. On the tidbits loop it looks like wnw to me as well.
View attachment 6083

Where is that map from?

 

[snowlover91]

Where is that map from?

On this page, click on the storm name and it’s at the top of the page. The other circles are microwave estimates which can be off a bit at times but the white points are the official NHC plots.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/web/index.shtml

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

HOW DO I POST A GIF FROM TIDBITS

 

[ForsythSnow]

HOW DO I POST A GIF FROM TIDBITS

You have to save it, then upload it here as something that is under 2 mb, or use a link from an image hosting site unfortunately.

 

[Arcc]

It's the real eye showing, but still real issues with dry air in the short term. Convection still collapsing in the CDO.

 

[ForsythSnow]

On this page, click on the storm name and it’s at the top of the page. The other circles are microwave estimates which can be off a bit at times but the white points are the official NHC plots.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/web/index.shtml

That map is cluttered with weird information and doesn't seem very definitive of what is what. For all I know, or anyone else here, the blue dot and circle at the end could be the point it's at. I need the data from the BEST track or whatever that's at to know where she really is at, or just wait another 15 to 25 minutes for the next advisory.

 

[ForsythSnow]

It's the real eye showing, but still real issues with dry air in the short term. Convection still collapsing in the CDO.

Yeah, its survived long enough to be the eye, but as you said, the dry air is impeding development and I'm sure that until the eyewall closes off, it's going to suffer from an unstable eye and it'll probably disappear again if it doesn't shut in the next hour.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

i still see a W movement i see the NW movement but it looks to me just to be the eye rounding off

 

[ForsythSnow]

i still see a W movement i see the NW movement but it looks to me just to be the eye rounding off

Yeah it seems nothing more than a wobble. Once it stabilizes we will have a clear idea of where the center is and what orientation it's headed to until it either collapses or undergoes an ERC.