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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

One thing that concerns me is the possibility of Florence stalling if she does make landfall. Models are hinting at a breakdown in the steering currents that, if over land, could cause some major flooding issues as well. Something to keep an eye on.
 
Allan's EPS plots show the strongest TC's recurving, which matches up with the GFS. Probably why UK is furthest south, it's the weakest, relative.

DmcAI0KX0AITSwd.jpg:large
 
Down to 80 mph forecast goes down to 70 before restrengthening

Beyond day 3, the
track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to differing
evolutions of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic. While
all of the global models show a progressive trough eroding the
ridge, they differ in the strength of the trough and the ridge to
the north of Florida. These differences result in a great deal of
bifurcation in the track guidance, especially among global model
ensemble members, at the end of the forecast period. In such
situations, prudence suggests a reliance on continuity, and the the
new official NHC track forecast is shifted only slightly south
towards the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA.
 
Storm5 said:
Recon flights begin Monday ...


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Click to expand...
Gonna be along weekend! Maybe they can go earlier, if models get more consolidated on a US landfall!?
 
the gulfstream(for the models) is going to Hawaii for Olivia too... sigh like it'll be anything when it gets to Hawaii lol

generally though for general recon around 60 W is typical unless it's threatening the Antilles when they can go to St. Croix
 
Kylo said:
Allan's EPS plots show the strongest TC's recurving, which matches up with the GFS. Probably why UK is furthest south, it's the weakest, relative.

DmcAI0KX0AITSwd.jpg:large
Click to expand...
We’re definitely not starting out on the right foot with this storm probably weakening to a tropical storm later tonight, I certainly have some questions about how quickly this can recover if dry air is invested into the core. The fact that Florence is small and will have a warm, moist environment with light shear to intensify in helps but sometimes it can take unusually long for a TC to mix out dry air from its core if entrained anyway & sometimes they don’t ever fully recover. We will have to wait and see but I think Florence will more than likely be fine, this is just worth bringing up because the chance is there that it won’t be in general terms.
 
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Hopefully the recon on Monday will give us a better idea where Florence will go to.
 
The 18Z GFS crossed 60 W way down at 27.5 N vs the prior 3 runs being then near 30N!​
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_14.png
3 Canes at once. You think all 3 of these will set a nice cooler pattern after?
 
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