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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Weatherlover92 said:
Maybe it's an effect of what you're saying, but it seems like the convection is slightly being tugged in a WSW motion, but it's late my eyes could be messing with me right now.

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i see a slight wsw tug
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Maybe it's an effect of what you're saying, but it seems like the convection is slightly being tugged in a WSW motion, but it's late my eyes could be messing with me right now.
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Yes, the LLC was on the south side of the convection and with shear subsiding it appears the convection is trying to expand SW over the LLC. Tough to tell for sure since we don’t have satellite but latest shear analysis and current IR suggests this may be the case.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yes, the LLC was on the south side of the convection and with shear subsiding it appears the convection is trying to expand SW over the LLC. Tough to tell for sure since we don’t have satellite but latest shear analysis and current IR suggests this may be the case.
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Say hello to shortwave IR or night visible. Florence is still a good way off from major intensification.

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Arcc said:
Say hello to shortwave IR or night visible. Florence is still a good way off from major intensification.
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It’s helpful but still not the same as visible. I use the COD GOES 16 with the micro physics turned on which is similar to this just a different color scheme. The latest images are suggesting the LLC is getting pulled in and the MLC is trying to stack. A long ways to go but definite improvement and the core is probably reorganizing again.
 
Florence is really not expected to intensify much over the next day or two. This westerly shear, even tomorrow, will be near 20 KTS and even after the MLC and LLC become vertically stacked it doesn't immediately begin intensifying. It takes time for latent heating release to trigger changes in PV distribution, often a day or two after Florence has become better organized in general, for MSLP to begin lowering in a remarkable fashion and for the storm to have a nearly complete inner core s.t. more significant intensification can occur as the buoyancy reservoir (the eye) can close off, increasing the baroclinicity between the eye & the eyewall s.t. that the winds & secondary circulation become stronger. It seems that the earliest this might happen is late Sunday or even Monday.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Florence is really not expected to intensify much over the next day or two. This westerly shear, even tomorrow, will be near 20 KTS and even after the MLC and LLC become vertically stacked it doesn't immediately begin intensifying. It takes time for latent heating release to trigger changes in PV distribution, often a day or two after Florence has become better organized in general, for MSLP to begin lowering in a remarkable fashion and for the storm to have a nearly complete inner core s.t. more significant intensification can occur as the buoyancy reservoir (the eye) can close off, increasing the baroclinicity between the eye & the eyewall s.t. that the winds & secondary circulation become stronger. It seems that the earliest this might happen is late Sunday or even Monday.
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yeah I really hope people don't get complacent because it may not really take off til its in short range

Euro just looks slower/weaker to me
 
The southwestern piedmont including the Charlotte area become completely inundated by hurricane force wind gusts & they extend up into the Triad area on this Euro run. Fact of the matter is even if you're a few hundred miles inland from where this makes landfall, severe wind damage could easily impact areas like Columbia, Macon, Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, & Greensboro aside from flooding & tornadoes, etc. Make sure if Florence heads your way that you're prepared w/ 1-2 weeks of food, water, & other necessary supplies because this storm won't be playing around. Still some questions to sort out for the moment but I think it's becoming likely that Florence will pass at least very close to or make landfall in NC, SC, GA, & FL.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What are the wind speeds when it makes landfall? (EURO)
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Winds well in excess of hurricane force even thru Winston-Salem & Greensboro. Charlotte gets up to about 65 KTS this run, really only need to get to 45-50 KT in gusts to do serious damage, and even less for saturated ground. Severe t'storm warnings that produce widespread wind damage on a regular basis are only typically in this range, 65-70 KT gusts take things to a whole new level & do considerably more damage.

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Brent said:
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Borderline Cat4. Prob downgraded to a Cat3 once half of the eyewall crosses over the coast. My dad told me stories of Hugo. Said they were working in Santee which is well inland. They left for a few days until Hugo pushed through and when they came back he said it was unrecognizable. He couldn’t believe it. These things can do serious damage WELL inland
 
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You can easily see the early biurification of EPS members with stronger members early on gaining more latitude later and affecting mainly the mid-Atlantic or eastern NC. The members that take more time for Florence to develop constitute the overwhelming majority of the southern cluster that hits north FL, GA, and portions of south-central SC. We'll have to give this a few more days to see which cluster is more likely to verify although we've been progressively trending towards the southern cluster
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can easily see the early biurification of EPS members with stronger members early on gaining more latitude later and affecting mainly the mid-Atlantic or eastern NC. The members that take more time for Florence to develop constitute the overwhelming majority of the southern cluster that hits north FL, GA, and portions of south-central SC. We'll have to give this a few more days to see which cluster is more likely to verify although we've been progressively trending towards the southern cluster
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