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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Landfall near the OBX at 168.
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_8.png
 
Thought this was headed straight to ILM at this point. Still wants to ram right into a super strong ridge.

2450B6E5-E3A4-4537-8E26-CF3B26AF6AC1.png
 
Does anyone have a good link they can provide here to current closeup satellite imagery of Florence? TIA

Edit: preferably with latitude/longitude lines

I don't know why it seems harder than it used to see storm closeup images.
 
@Kylo It doesn't appear to be ramming through the ridge. Notice the orientation of the ridge is NW to SE, the flow aloft moves the storm to the NW and then NNW as it nears the edge of it. The ridge orientation is also why the GFS is further off the coast now, it has a N to S orientation.
 
The GEFS/GFS given their poleward & overdeepening biases are essentially setting the eastern edge of the guidance envelope w/ Florence in the long run, it's not good to already see some members actually hitting the US and most west of Bermuda at this stage in the game.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS/GFS given their poleward & overdeepening biases are essentially setting the eastern edge of the guidance envelope w/ Florence in the long run, it's not good to already see some members actually hitting the US and most west of Bermuda at this stage in the game.
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Do you think the GFS orientation of the ridge is in error here? I would think climo and the pattern we've seen recently would argue for a stronger ridge oriented more like the Euro/CMC show vs the GFS.
 
Based on current shear maps and model forecast shear, it looks like another 12-18 hours before the shear begins to rapidly drop off. Current shear appears to be 30-40kts but should quickly drop off past 55W where she should start strengthening again.
wg8shr.GIF
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's hanging in there though. Convection is developing over the center again so it's still strong inside, just being beat up heavily. Not good news if it's weak and gets shoved further west and south.
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Yes, but with the shear aloft you should be seeing explosive convection, just off to the NE. However you aren't just still warming cloud tops suggesting lots of dry air entrained as well.
 
snowlover91 said:
Based on current shear maps and model forecast shear, it looks like another 12-18 hours before the shear begins to rapidly drop off. Current shear appears to be 30-40kts but should quickly drop off past 55W where she should start strengthening again.
wg8shr.GIF
Click to expand...

I'd add another 8-12hrs on top of that. Shear always seem to last longer than predicted.
 
Arcc said:
Yes, but with the shear aloft you should be seeing explosive convection, just off to the NE. However you aren't just still warming cloud tops suggesting lots of dry air entrained as well.
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Yeah the convection has warmed heavily in addition to the latest strength now being at 85 mph. It might even become a TS again by tonight at the rate its falling apart.
 
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