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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

01f61e17780f7b983fb99251abf4468fcd2085e6c2d9a4ee161125661fa91dcb.png
And we have this
 
Question. So the weaker this thing is, the further west it will track. I understand that, but the second this thing ramps back up will it start to recurve? I mean is there any way this thing makes a b line for the eastern shore as a Cat 3-4? Seems to me like if this thing wants to be a major hurricane then, at best (or worst), it’s going to ride the shoreline and pull back it to sea. Impacts would still be heavy nonetheless (Disclaimer: this is mostly opinionated)
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Question. So the weaker this thing is, the further west it will track. I understand that, but the second this thing ramps back up will it start to recurve? I mean is there any way this thing makes a b line for the eastern shore as a Cat 3-4? Seems to me like if this thing wants to be a major hurricane then, at best (or worst), it’s going to ride the shoreline and pull back it to sea. Impacts would still be heavy nonetheless (Disclaimer: this is mostly opinionated)
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The weaker it is the further south and west it will go. It's almost down to a weak cat 1 per Dvorak estimates now and the NHC mentions the ridge building in from the north. I believe, just a thought, that if it remains weak in this time period it will start going due west since it's slowed down now, and usually indicates a change in course. It may even veer WSW a bit more than the NHC cone has it in response to the heavy ridge. However, once the ridge builds and it restrengthens, it'll be ridge VS storm. As soon as the ridge moves past the storm should pull northward unless another one builds in faster. Any speed changes will be extremely influential as well whether it be now or down the road. If it's flying towards the coast it'll be slower to turn unless it hits something to pull it north. Certainly worrying if it doesn't make any turn down the road.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Question. So the weaker this thing is, the further west it will track. I understand that, but the second this thing ramps back up will it start to recurve? I mean is there any way this thing makes a b line for the eastern shore as a Cat 3-4? Seems to me like if this thing wants to be a major hurricane then, at best (or worst), it’s going to ride the shoreline and pull back it to sea. Impacts would still be heavy nonetheless (Disclaimer: this is mostly opinionated)
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The key is how the ridge builds in. A stronger storm that tracks to the north forces the ridging to build further north and it's weaker as the GFS shows. A weaker storm allows stronger ridging to build in and push this a good deal further west. The GFS solution displaces the ridging to the north while the Euro/UK solution allows it to build further south thus resulting in a longer amount of time it is under the influence of the ridging for a westerly motion. It would all depend on timing and any weaknesses in the ridging if we get a cat 4 or 5 as to how close to the coast it comes... but a weaker storm will significantly increase the chances for a land threat IMO. This is likely a TS now and not a hurricane.
 
Now the west turn is occurring though it is as has been mentioned further north than the far south UKMET has been showing. Will this lead to somewhat further north UKMET adjustments or not? We should finally know the answer over the next few runs now that the west turn (and possibly WSW for a time) is occcuring. I’ll continue to follow the UKMET initializations closely.
 
Here is why Florence is weakening so rapidly and why I expect it to continue, possibly to weak TS strength later today. Mid-level shear is very strong over Florence and it's been my observation over the years that this type of shear is far more destructive to well established and powerful hurricanes like Florence was. Once she gets past this she should flare up and restrengthen considerably but I don't expect that to happen for another 18-30 hours. Also of note the GFS only weakens her to about 978mb on the newest run which is way too strong IMO. It will probably start adjusting this afternoon and tonight and shifting west as a result.
wg8midshr.GIF
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Gfs picked up on it being weaker. 22mb weaker at hour 12. Let’s see what changes that leads to!
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Are you sure? Hour 12 it shows 975mb vs 982mb in the prior run at the same time. It's actually stronger and it doesn't seem it has yet picked up on the rapid weakening we are observing. By hour 48 it is 967mb vs 973mb in the previous run so the GFS is actually stronger so far and doesn't match up with what we are seeing right now... so it will likely have a N bias as a result.
 
snowlover91 said:
Are you sure? Hour 12 it shows 975mb vs 982mb in the prior run at the same time. It's actually stronger and it doesn't seem it has yet picked up on the rapid weakening we are observing. By hour 48 it is 967mb vs 973mb in the previous run so the GFS is actually stronger so far and doesn't match up with what we are seeing right now... so it will likely have a N bias as a result.
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Yea my bad my eyes are not working today. Saw 955 as opposed to 985. Smh lol
 
Here's the current steering map for a 970-989mb system. Shows a solid westerly track for the foreseeable future as Florence bumps against the ridging.
wg8dlm3.GIF
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_7.png
Hour 42 still wsw movement. But I bet that wsw happens before than and put Flo further sw than gfs is showing
 
1300m said:
Great post. It's pretty obvious based on today's developments that Florence is coming well west. Like you said, it'll take the GFS several more runs to catch up probably. The big questions are going to be how soon does it regain intensity, and what will the upper ridge do to it?
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Have to watch the runs closely because the GFS and CMC keep wanting to merge Invest 92L and to be designated Invest 93L and shove them northward, which would definitely influence the speed at which the initial high moves out or even if this new low pops up east of that high as well.
 
1300m said:
Great post. It's pretty obvious based on today's developments that Florence is coming well west. Like you said, it'll take the GFS several more runs to catch up probably. The big questions are going to be how soon does it regain intensity, and how will the upper ridge and Gordon's remnants evolve?
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At this point I'm thinking a blend of the Euro and UK may be pretty reasonable. I think the Euro has a pretty good handle on the evolution going forward and this would put SC/NC at risk of a potential strengthening hurricane if it verifies. Even with the GFS showing a stronger storm on today's run it is still south of the previous run and shows stronger ridging too. I expect the Euro to hold serve or adjust a touch south and the GFS to play catch up in the 18z and 00z runs later today.
 
GaWx said:
If these ridiculously strong Flo runs in combo with Irma and other ones don’t finally convince the folks in doubt that the gfs has a ridiculously strong low SLP bias, then I don’t know what will.
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Yep it's something they are working on fixing in the FV3 model but there are still a lot of refinements it needs. The CMC and GFS are both coming in south so far through 72 hours, not a good sign...
 
Not good.. the UK has shifted north in line with the Euro pointing to a NC landfall. Here is the text output.
HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2018 0 24.1N 48.6W 1001 57
0000UTC 07.09.2018 12 25.0N 49.9W 998 62
1200UTC 07.09.2018 24 25.2N 51.5W 994 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 36 25.0N 52.7W 989 68
1200UTC 08.09.2018 48 24.8N 54.1W 984 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 60 24.7N 55.1W 981 56
1200UTC 09.09.2018 72 24.8N 56.5W 980 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 84 25.2N 58.0W 975 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 96 26.0N 60.4W 973 63
0000UTC 11.09.2018 108 27.2N 63.5W 971 69
1200UTC 11.09.2018 120 28.3N 67.7W 965 71
0000UTC 12.09.2018 132 29.2N 71.3W 960 71
1200UTC 12.09.2018 144 30.6N 74.3W 957 81
 
snowlover91 said:
Not good.. the UK has shifted north in line with the Euro pointing to a NC landfall. Here is the text output.
HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2018 0 24.1N 48.6W 1001 57
0000UTC 07.09.2018 12 25.0N 49.9W 998 62
1200UTC 07.09.2018 24 25.2N 51.5W 994 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 36 25.0N 52.7W 989 68
1200UTC 08.09.2018 48 24.8N 54.1W 984 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 60 24.7N 55.1W 981 56
1200UTC 09.09.2018 72 24.8N 56.5W 980 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 84 25.2N 58.0W 975 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 96 26.0N 60.4W 973 63
0000UTC 11.09.2018 108 27.2N 63.5W 971 69
1200UTC 11.09.2018 120 28.3N 67.7W 965 71
0000UTC 12.09.2018 132 29.2N 71.3W 960 71
1200UTC 12.09.2018 144 30.6N 74.3W 957 81
Click to expand...

There we go. UKMET finally adjusting back north.
 
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