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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

accu35 said:
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Let start with this
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Regrettably ...
 
packfan98 said:
Yeah, it doesn't look like many of the EPS members are going to recurve on this run. The intensity over the next 60 hours will tell the tale. We should be rooting for it to get stronger more quickly...seems weird to say...
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Not sure about that, even if it got strong quick I think the escape route is all but out the window.... for us if it gets stronger quicker it could spell trouble. Anyway with that said looks like most of the Euro ens members are stronger sooner then the op run
 
Webberweather53 said:
Oh man this 12z EPS run is ugly, there are some that blow Florence into a beefy major hurricane and still plow it into north-central Florida, intensity will certainly help push it north some but it doesn't explain everything, especially if the ridge just gets stronger.
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Yeah, unfortunately if that ridge becomes a record breaker in itself as you've been mentioning, there may be no way a cat 4 can even push it much. I see 2 camps, one a S GA / FL, and another being the NC / Scrape the coast ones. It becomes obvious around the 70W mark.
 
ForsythSnow said:
How fun, one member goes straight though here. NOT. It's those Savannah landfalls that plow straight though Macon that worry me. Many Phil would agree are worrying to his area as well. Unfortunately, the further south members may be stronger in the end due to more water time.
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Yeah worrisome to say the least....
 
ForsythSnow said:
How fun, one member goes straight though here. NOT. It's those Savannah landfalls that plow straight though Macon that worry me. Many Phil would agree are worrying to his area as well. Unfortunately, the further south members may be stronger in the end due to more water time.
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This is one part of weather I don't do for a hobby or fun ... dadgum right I'm watching ... but also listening to myself ... it is 6 plus days out ...
 
ForsythSnow said:
How fun, one member goes straight though here. NOT. It's those Savannah landfalls that plow straight though Macon that worry me. Many Phil would agree are worrying to his area as well. Unfortunately, the further south members may be stronger in the end due to more water time.
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I’ve been lurking quietly and watching for the past day or so. That Euro run felt like a punch in the gut with that many members landfalling far N Florida and SE Georgia.

Not interested in seeing a buzzsaw hit the Georgia coast and slog inland toward Lake Lanier. Long way to go. This setup is so different.

Keep educating me and I’ll add whatever limited knowledge I can, where appropriate.

—30—


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1300m said:
It's honestly still quite a bit of spread (as expected this far out), just now we are moving away from the total recurve scenario.
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Agreed . The spread is still massive but removing the recurve scenario the shift SW in ensembles is pretty clear . My point was just glancing at the above image it looks like two camps on that run . I have no dog in this fight , just watching cause that’s what weather nerds do lol

Of course 94L could change all this IF it were to develop . Of course that does not look very likely


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With these tracks showing up, Shawn might need to evacuate!! Looking very Hugoish wrt speed and potential inland devastation! Just need to see how strength plays out!
 
TS8 going to have a hand in this too. Not sure ready to buy into a tracks this far south.

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The invest area near Bermuda will in all likelihood get sheared & ingested into the broader circulation of Florence, no doubt it could have a minor influence on its track, but Florence's large-scale circulation, intensity, and -PV output even its current state dwarfs anything this little system could spit out.
 
GaWx said:
Per Ryan's 12Z EPS tracks, many of them hit the SE as cat 2s with several even as 3s. Scary stuff. The worst run yet, even worse than the really bad 0Z with very few misses.
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Larry,
Here's hoping you can sublet your hotel reservations to some folks from New Jersey ... ;)
As Ryan said ... still a long way out ...
But, haven't I heard that refrain before somewhere? LOL ...
Best,
Phil
 
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