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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Euro turns north over NC and is moving up towards Delmarva again

then moves out quicker than the 12z

landfall around Morehead City

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Fwiw, the UKMET (0Z) is still initializing too far SW with 22.7 N, 47.1 W vs the actual at 0Z of 23.1 N, 46.9 W. By the time Flo got to 47.1 W, it was already up near 23.3 N or 0.6 or 42 miles N of where the UKMET had her when it was at 47.1. Maybe it will end up not mattering much but I'd still keep this in mind since it has by far the most southerly track.
 
Uh oh, the 0Z EPS is coming in somewhat like the beast of 2 runs ago. More details soon. Or maybe someone who can do it will post the map.
 
Brent said:
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Good grief, a good number says "I'll get you" and a good number says "No, I wont, then haha I'm kidding, I'll try again".

The Ukmet holding that southern track is still very interesting. When it busted on Jose, it eventually caved much sooner.

I'll throw out another senario, Florence is taking a beating and if it's midlevel center decouples it isn't crazy to say it may dissipate or become a naked swirl and take days to regerate or never do so.
 
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GaWx said:
Fwiw, the UKMET (0Z) is still initializing too far SW with 22.7 N, 47.1 W vs the actual at 0Z of 23.1 N, 46.9 W. By the time Flo got to 47.1 W, it was already up near 23.3 N or 0.6 or 42 miles N of where the UKMET had her when it was at 47.1. Maybe it will end up not mattering much but I'd still keep this in mind since it has by far the most southerly track.
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And Florence had mostly NNW track overnight. Good news hopefully. Still expect a WNW track next couple of days.
 
I know we still have a long way to go and for things to change, but the models coming in further west, along with the NHC track, is really concerning right now.
 
Most recent morning visibles indicate a turn may have begun to the WNW. If this indeed isn't a wobble then that would be well ahead of the GFS schedule and more in agreement with the models that threaten the East Coast. Furthermore the GFS doesn't weaken the system as much as other models and the structure of Florence has deteriorated rapidly overnight and this morning. She's likely a cat 1 right now and could weaken to a tropical storm today if the heavy shear persists. FWIW the 06z GEFS also shifted west a bit.
 
My thinking is the GFS has done better up to this point with the intensity and being closest to the track... however I also think it is underestimating the weakening that will occur due to the shear and once this starts a solid westerly motion the GFS may not due as well since it sometimes has a bias of breaking down ridging too soon. The next 36 hours are critical to the future track and how close to the US Florence will get. IMO she is likely a strong cat 1 right now and that's about it. The core is severely weakened and significant dry air intrusion is ongoing per the microwave scan posted above.
 
snowlover91 said:
My thinking is the GFS has done better up to this point with the intensity and being closest to the track... however I also think it is underestimating the weakening that will occur due to the shear and once this starts a solid westerly motion the GFS may not due as well since it sometimes has a bias of breaking down ridging too soon. The next 36 hours are critical to the future track and how close to the US Florence will get. IMO she is likely a strong cat 1 right now and that's about it. The core is severely weakened and significant dry air intrusion is ongoing per the microwave scan posted above.
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Not to mention the recurve bias and pressure bias. Both cause it to go further north or OTS. We already have 1 factor that could lead to landfall occurring so if we get factor 2 of the ridge building over we are in trouble.
 
BHS1975 said:
The ukmet builds a 597dm ridge to the north which would push it wsw or even sw.


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If Florence is a weaker storm this would allow stronger ridging to build in to her north whereas a stronger one will break it down and prevent it from building as much (like the GFS shows). Right now based on the weakening trend we are observing I would go with the stronger ridge advocated by the CMC, Euro and UK (although it's probably too strong).
 
The 4 globals at day 5 . UK is on southern end but the Euro/CMC is closer to it than the GFS track.Sept6models.gif
 
snowlover91 said:
If Florence is a weaker storm this would allow stronger ridging to build in to her north whereas a stronger one will break it down and prevent it from building as much (like the GFS shows). Right now based on the weakening trend we are observing I would go with the stronger ridge advocated by the CMC, Euro and UK (although it's probably too strong).
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So if it does make it to the coast it would have to stay weak because a strong hurricane would break down the western edge of the ridge and get caught up in the westerlies.


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BHS1975 said:
So if it does make it to the coast it would have to stay weak because a strong hurricane would break down the western edge of the ridge and get caught up in the westerlies.
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It could still make it to the coast as a strong hurricane if the ridge orientation is like the Euro or UK show. The difference happens in the next 72 hours. The GFS has a stronger storm that gets pulled north and the ridging that builds in is shifted to the north of Bermuda and weaker allowing for a recurve.
gfs_z500a_atl_22.png


The Euro actually has a weaker storm that is further south thus allowing the ridging to build in more to the south and stronger, notice it is 594dm vs 591 on the GFS.
ecmwf_z500a_atl_6.png


By hour 144 the Euro has a VERY strong 597dm ridge, much stronger than it's prior runs and actually similar to the UK.
ecmwf_z500a_atl_7.png

This ridge begins to weaken on the western periphery as the HP orientation changes but not before slamming Florence into the NC coast.
ecmwf_z500a_atl_8.png
 
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