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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
The entire southern half of Florence is basically gone now and the eye has clouded due to shear. I expect she will weaken quickly until the shear eases tomorrow night or Friday.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Gfs is north so far out to 114.
Looks like it's about to make a beeline straight for Bermuda at hr 132.
Brent
Member
direct hit on Bermuda at 138
Definitely north
Definitely north
Snowflowxxl
Member
Looks a good bit stronger as well. Gfs still can’t forecast intensity to save its life it appears.
Brent
Member
922 mb near Bermuda ok sure
I could be wrong but I think this run may stay offshore???
Brent
Member
GFS north CMC south
the 0z models are off to a great start /s
the 0z models are off to a great start /s
snowlover91
Member
CMC with a NC hit
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
CMC waayyyyy SW. Plasters OBX and moves due west into the N.C. piedmont.
Snowflowxxl
Member
NYC incoming on GFS?
Brent
Member
meanwhile the UKMET is still headed for the Bahamas 
snowlover91
Member
It’s actually possible. GFS verbatim is forecasting a perfect upper level environment with outflow in all directions and the waters here are about 29C. As long as she’s moving at a good clip a pressure that low is definitely plausible.
Cape Cod probably more likely. Still too early to say for sure.
EDIT: May be going OTS after hr 192. Starting to make a turn to the right.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
So looks like we have a CMC, Euro, UK south camp. That’s pretty hard to beat. Recurve is looking less likely.
Brent
Member
GFS somehow stayed offshore
snowlover91
Member
Euro has been one of the worst performing models with Florence so far and GFS one of the best. Models tonight aren’t helpful at all with GFS shifting east, cmc west, UK heading for the Bahamas.
Brent
Member
through 120 hours the Euro has trended towards the UKMET... south
144 its way southwest of Bermuda
144 its way southwest of Bermuda
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Brent
Member
168 hours about to make landfall in NC
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