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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

At hour 120 this is racing for the SE coast. Based on the ridge strength and orientation, I would guess this will landfall close to the NC/SC border.
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I have never seen South Carolina emergency officials start the ramp up this early in my 20 years here (the 5-day forecast cone is still hundreds of miles off SC). I think that's pretty telling.SCEMD Florence.jpg
 
Right around Charleston, SC and strengthening all the way to the coast, increasing forward speed.... will be a long path of trouble

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This run ended up similar to the last one, but there are subtle differences. The biggest difference is that it is slowly strengthening until landfall instead of the 0z run which had a stronger cane but was weakening by the time it made landfall. Lots more details to iron out for sure...
 
Based on what I've seen so far the key is going to be how quickly Florence restrengthens. The Euro keeps Florence around the same strength she is now for 3 straight days. With the improving environment and reduction in shear I find that hard to believe... anyways I think the final key to the puzzle is going to be how quickly Florence regains strength to hurricane status and beyond. If she takes 3 days to get there like some models show then the track could adjust further south. It's been my experience that in situations like this the models are often a bit too slow... therefore I am expecting a shift north in the modeling if she indeed organizes quicker than currently modeled.
12z GEFS below, first run with multiple landfalls.
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1300m said:
I think NC actually is a bigger concern, because I think the Euro/UKMET is underplaying the time it will take for restrengthening to begin, which will likely bring it back north a little. Not sure how much longer we will continue to see a south trend, because as it strengthens I think guidance will begin to sniff that out and start adjusting back northward again.
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Completely agree. Oftentimes the Euro/UK are too slow to pick up on intensification and weakening. The FV3 GFS has actually been one of the better performers in regards to intensity from what I've seen.
 
1300m said:
I think NC actually is a bigger concern, because I think the Euro/UKMET is underplaying the time it will take for restrengthening to begin, which will likely bring it back north a little. Not sure how much longer we will continue to see a south trend, because as it strengthens I think guidance will begin to sniff that out and start adjusting back northward again.
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At the same time it may take Florence some time to recover and it may also slow down some and allow the ridge to further build south ahead of its path. We will have a clear picture by Monday I believe as to where it's headed.
 
As PackFan mentioned a few minutes ago, the Euro initialized a little weaker than Florence actually is right now. Taking that into account I would expect landfall a little further north up the coast (based on this run)
 
ForsythSnow said:
At the same time it may take Florence some time to recover and it may also slow down some and allow the ridge to further build south ahead of its path. We will have a clear picture by Monday I believe as to where it's headed.
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Hopefully the upper air data this weekend will help with clarifying the upper level environment. The intensity of Florence is key to the final track and 94L may play a role with weakening the ridge slightly as well.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
As PackFan mentioned a few minutes ago, the Euro initialized a little weaker than Florence actually is right now. Taking that into account I would expect landfall a little further north up the coast
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Only thing though is we have no idea the exact pressure of Florence. The winds are estimated and still well above the estimated strength per the Dvorak estimates of a weak TS. The estimated pressure is 1001 mb per that method, but NHC's advisory is much stronger and has a deeper pressure. The GFS is too strong at initialization and the Euro is too weak per that, but the FV3 is just around that. However, we have no idea how the ridge or the environment will play out so it's best to wait until the flights tomorrow and the model adjustments following to see what's going on.
 
1300m said:
I think NC actually is a bigger concern, because I think the Euro/UKMET is underplaying the time it will take for restrengthening to begin, which will likely bring it back north a little. Not sure how much longer we will continue to see a south trend, because as it strengthens I think guidance will begin to sniff that out and start adjusting back northward again.
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I can see that happening, but from the look of the satellite, shear will last a while longer.

Secondly I don't know how much strength will be a factor unless it really weakens down. The question is when will it reach the edge of the ridge to begin NW movement and the trend has been for a farther westward expansion of that ridge. Even an insanely deep Cat 5 can only go so far north in this setup.
 

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Sandbar said:
Looks right now like a cross between Fran and Isabel track wise. Neither was good......
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Really as Larry (GAWx) mentioned earlier, there is no real comparison this storm has to others due to its course and position. The landfall angle on those two storms is much greater and the turn occurs sooner than it will here, which appears to be at or just before landfall or even not at all.
 
Hurricane force wind gusts made it hundreds of miles inland on this Euro run, even a landfalling TC in Charleston managed to push the envelope for hurricane force gusts in areas like Greensboro....

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ForsythSnow said:
Really as Larry (GAWx) mentioned earlier, there is no real comparison this storm has to others due to its course and position. The landfall angle on those two storms is much greater and the turn occurs sooner than it will here, which appears to be at or just before landfall or even not at all.
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Not calling for it, but don't forget Dora, that decided to never curve ... just seems we're still too far out to be pinpointing or declaring a bullseye ...
 
ForsythSnow said:
When has it not? It's got some weird algorithm that always produces too perfectly symmetrical storms with massive unrealistic eyes for the ocean it's in. Stronger storms = smaller eyes as do strengthening ones.
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I've found it useful in stronger hurricanes for depicting the type of eye and structure a storm might have. This should be a good test to see how well it does this year.
 
I'm going to chase this wherever it goes given it makes landfall.
 
I bet Flo considerably expands herself by absorbing 94 moisture and combine to one creating more of a storm surge and flooding
 
Yeah, it doesn't look like many of the EPS members are going to recurve on this run. The intensity over the next 60 hours will tell the tale. We should be rooting for it to get stronger more quickly...seems weird to say...
 
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