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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Is there any chance that Flo could go further west than what models show? Not that I'm wanting a storm, just wondering since we are tracking.
 
accu35 said:
Is there any chance that Flo could go further west than what models show? Not that I'm wanting a storm, just wondering since we are tracking.
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there always is in these setups... ridges are typically too weak and troughs overdone

at 228 hours its moving NNE just south of NYC
 
This is Irma at about the same timeframe. As you can see no OTS solutions.

a65a1a342d4bbf4b8581c5cc77e6fa1e.jpg



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BHS1975 said:
Anyone know a good site for the ukie?


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Maybe our Wiki can help ... (??) ...
Euro/UKMET Related - Free (Choose Inside The Link – Along With Other Models)
or maybe the 5th model down here will assist (??) ... https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
also in our Wiki ... ;)
 
12Z UKMET Florence:

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 21.6N 45.5W 998 49
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 22.7N 47.6W 1001 55

So, the actual NHC location's latitude as of 5 PM EDT, 22.7N, is already at the same latitude as this UKMET's 8 PM EDT position. And the longitude at 5 PM EDT was only 46.6W or a full degree east of the UKMET's 8 PM position or near the assumed UKMET's 2 PM EDT position. Translation: just as is the case for the 12Z EPS mean, Flo is currently north of the 12Z UKMET track by a nontrivial amount, a hopeful sign for a down the road safe recurve.
 
The UKMET has a profound and well known SW bias and is the southernmost outlier in the NWP suites over the last few days. The fact that Florence is NE of this model doesn't really carry much hope that this will recurve per say. The collective tendency of NWP of late has been away from the recurve w/ Florence missing the trough to the north and getting stuck under the ridge and sliding near or just south of Bermuda, even then a hit is not guaranteed but an easy recurve is starting to become less likely especially after the recent changes to its forecast track inside day 3.
 
GaWx said:
12Z UKMET Florence:

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 21.6N 45.5W 998 49
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 22.7N 47.6W 1001 55

So, the actual NHC location's latitude as of 5 PM EDT, 22.7N, is already at the same latitude as this UKMET's 8 PM EDT position. And the longitude at 5 PM EDT was only 46.6W or a full degree east of the UKMET's 8 PM position or near the assumed UKMET's 2 PM EDT position. Translation: just as is the case for the 12Z EPS mean, Flo is currently north of the 12Z UKMET track by a nontrivial amount, a hopeful sign for a down the road safe recurve.
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Webberweather53 said:
The UKMET has a profound and well known SW bias and is the southernmost outlier in the NWP suites over the last few days. The fact that Florence is NE of this model doesn't really carry much hope that this will recurve per say. The collective tendency of NWP of late has been away from the recurve w/ Florence missing the trough to the north and getting stuck under the ridge and sliding near or just south of Bermuda, even then a hit is not guaranteed but an easy recurve is starting to become less likely especially after the recent changes to its forecast track inside day 3.
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doublevision.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The UKMET has a profound and well known SW bias and is the southernmost outlier in the NWP suites over the last few days. The fact that Florence is NE of this model doesn't really carry much hope that this will recurve per say. The collective tendency of NWP of late has been away from the recurve w/ Florence missing the trough to the north and getting stuck under the ridge and sliding near or just south of Bermuda, even then a hit is not guaranteed but an easy recurve is starting to become less likely especially after the recent changes to its forecast track inside day 3.
Click to expand...

The key word is "hope". I'd rather see it north very early in the run rather than right on all other things being equal. When I say safe recurve, I don't mean easy recurve. I mean any decent distance offshore, which would be great news for the E coast. I mean safe as in safe from danger. 250 miles offshore is safe from my perspective. I realize that the odds of her getting stuck are not low, regardless.

By the way, is this SW bias common this early in the run?
 
GaWx said:
The key word is "hope". I'd rather see it north very early in the run rather than right on all other things being equal. When I say safe recurve, I don't mean easy recurve. I mean any decent distance offshore, which would be great news for the E coast. I mean safe as in safe from danger. 250 miles offshore is safe from my perspective. I realize that the odds of her getting stuck are not low, regardless.

By the way, is this SW bias common this early in the run?
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Larry,
Unscientific, but history suggests that models on these storms do shift west southwest with time, early on ... but that's just me watching a quarter century of computer generated tropical runs ... :confused:
bottom line, in my very humble opinion, is we're 5 days out before giving any model real credence ... but ... watch the trends ...
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Unscientific, but history suggests that models on these storms do shift west southwest with time, early on ... but that's just me watching a quarter century of computer generated tropical runs ... :confused:
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I know Irma did big time! And Florence already has. But that doesn't mean Florence will necessarily do more of this from this point.

Edited for @pcbjr
 
GaWx said:
JB thinks that models are going to underestimate the ridge in the W Atlantic due to ridiculously warm waters there. @Webberweather53 @1300m @deltadog03 and others here, is he right or not?
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JB forecast from today is a 75% chance of it hitting NC/SC as a cat 4 next week!?
 
A great reminder from "caneseddy" posting elsewhere:

"Also, last season UKMET for several days kept Jose heading west towards Florida while every model said out to sea, until eventually it caved..just food for thought (not to say it should be discounted)."

I do remember this. It was horrible. But it was fantastic with Irma!
 
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