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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Its just ridiculous how much the GFS has shifted around Bermuda on Tuesday since yesterday!
 
metwannabe said:
Little by little the GFS shifting the orientation of that High, I'm afraid this is not going to end well
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Well it might actually end well for those of us in NC if it keeps right on trending further South and West but that would in turn be bad for those of us South of NC.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Well it might actually end well for those of us in NC if it keeps right on trending further South and West but that would in turn be bad for those of us South of NC.
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Agreed... but I'm speaking of CONUS and the SE specifically and right now I'm not seeing any escape route. No doubt it may end up further south as you mentioned though
 
UKMET, while initializing too far South to actual track, hasn't been horrible considering the trends. It's hard for me to get behind it because of how it severely botched the forecast with Jose.
 
The GFS is likely way too strong with Florence, as usual. So that's going to botch it's forecast track me thinks, regardless.

Look for the ridging trends and South adjustments.
 
between 96-120 GFS has Florence accelerating also, just as the Euro.... this is problematic
 
SD said:
It's a concerning trend for our backyards

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Yep! Increased foreward speed x cat 3/4 strength = devastation further inland!
 
So is the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro and EPS correcting to the steady Ukie? I don’t think the GFS is done coming south. At this point I blend CMC, Euro, and UKie.
 
metwannabe said:
between 96-120 GFS has Florence accelerating also, just as the Euro.... this is problematic
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I'd buy that, while like the chances of Florence hitting the US are anomalous, the chances of a stall afterward is as well. I'd bet it turns NE around the ridge fairly quickly or the stronger ridge plows it far inland.
 
Imo, if Florence were to strike the US, the most likely target zone that's beginning to emerge given the various consensus aids, NWP trends, and biases seems to point towards an area somewhere between Cape Hatteras, NC and Daytona Beach, FL. The chances of this going out to sea aren't zero yet but they're getting closer to this value as verification approaches.
 
Canadian has the system quite weak, versus some other guidance fwiw. Might be why it wants it so far South. (partly at least).
 
SD said:
It's a concerning trend for our backyards

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Honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see it head south of here, giving our area minimal impacts, when all is said and done. The ridge means business and I’m not sure the models are done catching up to how strong it is likely to be.
 
1300m said:
Completely agree. The counter is how quickly Florence restrengthens. This is turning into a serious situation where a powerful Cat 3 to 4 hurricane is going to barrel well inland -- versus just scraping the coast -- and wreak a lot of havoc somewhere I fear.
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Yep, that’s a good point. Quite complicated and fun to watch how it plays out. Unfortunately, it’s looking more likely that it’s not going to be fun for somebody in about a week’s time.
 
I'll probably make a run to the store today to just get a few extra groceries (esp water and canned goods) before the seemingly inevitable mad dash probably occurs within the next few days as many probably begin to panic. The memories of storms like Hugo, Fran, et al still resonate with many in the Carolinas and I don't want to be price gouged or w/o necessary goods to survive if the power goes out. Never hurts to be safe rather than sorry & prepare early & often...
 
1300m said:
I think the ensemble guidance today will probably continue the shift away from the out to sea scenario. It is becoming very unlikely at this point IMO. I feel like the most likely landfall zone -- while anywhere from northern FL to the northern Outer Banks of NC are in play -- is probably Savannah, GA to Morehead City, NC right now but this definitely could be one of those hurricanes where major impacts are felt hundreds of miles inland.
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Irma wasn't very nice last year so I don't look forward to any repeats given that there will be less land to cover to get here if it goes for the GA coast. I worry for you NC folks in Raleigh if it heads there given it could have cat 1 strength on its north side if it goes inland near Myrtle Beach.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'll probably make a run to the store today to just get a few extra groceries (esp water and canned goods) before the seemingly inevitable mad dash probably occurs within the next few days as many probably begin to panic. The memories of storms like Hugo, Fran, et al still resonate with many in the Carolinas and I don't want to be price gouged or w/o necessary goods to survive if the power goes out. Never hurts to be safe rather than sorry & prepare early & often...
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Spoken almost as if you were a true Floridian ... ;)
 
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