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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

so, the Euro is showing the opposite of a recurve, and is literally bowing Florence back south and west? Wasn't Hugo always more south in its track than Florence?
 
whamby said:
so, the Euro is showing the opposite of a recurve, and is literally bowing Florence back south and west? Wasn't Hugo always more south in its track than Florence?
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yes Hugo is one of the worst hurricanes in the NE Caribbean on record(the areas Irma/Maria hit last year around Puerto Rico)
 
the differences in tonight's gfs and Euro are hilarious, lol:
gfs_z500_mslp_us_41.png
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png
 
AL06_2018090700_GEFS_large.png meanwhile almost all the GFS ensembles are out to sea... only 2 hit the US and both in the Carolinas

okay 3, one clips Cape Cod
 
Webberweather53 said:
UKMET ensemble looks ugly too.

View attachment 5908
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I see there are almost as many FL hits on this new UK ens vs the prior run, which is a surprise to me. However, the highest concentration has shifted from S FL to N FL thus allowing the mean track to be 2 degrees further north just off the SE coast.

Meanwhile, regarding the new Euro ens,
icon_eek.gif
icon_eek.gif
That one is looking just about as bad as that real bad one from a few runs ago. Ugly.
 
0Z EPS: worst run yet for SE. The worst had been the one from 0Z 9/5, when there were 23 FL-NC TS+ hits. This newest one has 30 out of 51 members as well as 3 TDs. That's a heck of a lot for 7 days out!
 
And the 6z gfs has a NC landfall on the outer banks. Each run looks more ominous for a US landfall in the SE. Thanks to everyone posting great content including model spreads and analysis. Keep us updated. Time for everyone to check out their emergency kits this weekend for sure.
 
2907319A-7B0C-4335-ACF0-C3F37DE94E79.png Euro ensembles have a pretty tight cluster over NFL and SGA. I think as of now, IMO, that area is most likely ground zero, as the track continues its Southerly shifts
 
Developing trying to get organized again, still looks to be heading due west for now...
gifsBy12hr_08.gif
 
metwannabe said:
Almost looks like 2 camps, one that still trying to stay just off shore and the other starting to key in on Ga/SC... definitely not good trends for the SE.
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Looks like 3 camps to me with ots/sc/ga with central NC in the clear yay


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She's maintaining despite continued significant shear, but the road ahead is primed for explosive development, light shear and look at the SST temps increasing....

tccapture.gif
 
At this point we are about 6 days out from a potential landfall. I expect models will really zero in on things today as the synoptics get nailed down. The overall setup of a stronger ridge is well agreed upon and the biggest difference now is the orientation of the ridging. Honestly, I would lean a blend of Euro/GFS at this point which puts NC at the highest risk. Still plenty of time for things to change but at 5-6 day leads and in this type of setup I don't expect huge changes, just small shifts north/south based on modeled intensity changes.
 
1E1A63E3-8523-41BE-917C-0A21DE7EE8A5.png This
 
The thing that might save NC from a hit is if Flo keeps going further south. I don't think curving out to sea is going to happen now.
 
What concerns me most about a potential landfall, especially if she heads to NC, is usually our storms are coming from the Bahamas with a NW or NNW motion and weakening due to an approaching shortwave and shear. With the setup for Florence she would be under light to 0 shear with a perfect upper level environment and outflow to strengthen as much as she pleases. In addition the waters off the NC coast are well above normal this year, 29-30C and could in theory support a category 4 hurricane.
cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png
 
snowlover91 said:
At this point we are about 6 days out from a potential landfall. I expect models will really zero in on things today as the synoptics get nailed down. The overall setup of a stronger ridge is well agreed upon and the biggest difference now is the orientation of the ridging. Honestly, I would lean a blend of Euro/GFS at this point which puts NC at the highest risk. Still plenty of time for things to change but at 5-6 day leads and in this type of setup I don't expect huge changes, just small shifts north/south based on modeled intensity changes.
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at a 144hr+ lead time a lot can and will change, models do not have this nailed down and at this lead time they rarely if ever do.
 
snowlover91 said:
What concerns me most about a potential landfall, especially if she heads to NC, is usually our storms are coming from the Bahamas with a NW or NNW motion and weakening due to an approaching shortwave and shear. With the setup for Florence she would be under light to 0 shear with a perfect upper level environment and outflow to strengthen as much as she pleases. In addition the waters off the NC coast are well above normal this year, 29-30C and could in theory support a category 4 hurricane.
cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png
Click to expand...


This is an important point, because in cases where we have a hurricane curving in front of an approaching trough, it usually weakens on approach due to shear and their prolonged proximity to the contiguous US increases the chance dry air is ingested into their cores, Floyd (1999) is the most classical example of this, wherein it was almost a category 5 hurricane in the northern Bahamas and weakened to a 2 by the time it reached NC due to both shear and dry air being advected in by this shear. Irene (2011) is also a good case. Florence is not going to follow this mold
 
DopplerWx said:
at a 144hr+ lead time a lot can and will change, models do not have this nailed down and at this lead time they rarely if ever do.
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I agree a lot can change but the consensus right now is indicating a NC risk and the chances of this going OTS have decreased significantly with recent trends. We are going to be in the Euro's wheelhouse by tonight and GFS has been trending towards the Euro/CMC solutions which adds further confidence in the setup. The synoptic setup is remarkably similar on all the major models as well and generally I've found that with strong ridging the Euro is the superior model in those instances. At this point I think there is enough agreement to say this will probably make landfall or skirt the coast... the big question is where.
 
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