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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

If anyone wants to see a funny run look at the FV3. It still has Florence in the Atlantic up to hour 384 only finally on its way out then. It just keeps getting shoved south and back along its initial track.
 
looks like it avoids landfall by about 30 miles on this run :confused:

not that it matters the coast would be wiped out if it stalls there for days
 
That was an interesting run for sure. Ridge does break down late, so obviously further north this run...Sits forever, as y'all have said.
 
Florence has become a category 4 hurricane based on the latest ATCF message, making it the furthest north a category 4 hurricane has formed in the Atlantic east of 50W (according to Sam Lillo).
 
Interestingly, average member is a fair bit weaker on the 12Z EPS vs 0Z. Tracks are similar so far.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
For some early afternoon entertainment, toggle the euro run from 12Z yesterday to 12Z today. One more jump like that and this thing is in the gulf. I think OTS is pretty much off the table now.
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The reason for the huge "jump" is whether or not this feels the weakness and interacts with the shortwave energy digging down. It's a very fluid and sensitive situation. Interaction with that shortwave will tug this north and closer to the weakness making it hard for this to make it to the US even if the ridge builds back in to block it. If it takes a track further south then it will miss that weakness and have a much better chance of hitting the US.

IMO here is the key to watch. There is significant divergence with the models between 50-55w. The models that are further south with stronger ridging like the UK diverge around 50W and by 55W the gap is fairly significant. In 2 days we will know a lot more about potential threats to the US once we see which path this takes and how much of a weakness there is.
06L_tracks_18z.png
 
Good news fwiw. The 12Z EPS has fewer members than the 0Z EPS hitting the SE US with Hs along with weaker average members. So, good vs the very bad 0Z EPS. But still quite threatening.
 
GaWx said:
Good news fwiw. The 12Z EPS has fewer members than the 0Z EPS hitting the SE US with Hs along with weaker average members. So, good vs the very bad 0Z EPS. But still quite threatening.
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Larry, I'm pretty darn good keeping up with testimony, but right now you have my head spinning ... keep up the great work! The more facts, the better for evaluating ... ;)
 
Good news vs the horrible 0Z EPS anyway. Out of 51 members, the 12Z EPS has only ~6 TS+ hits on the SE US vs the insane ~23 hits on the 0Z EPS, all on 9/13-4:
- 2 on NC, 1 far S GA, 3 N 1/2 of FL
 
The tracks that come close to the US or landfall stay much further south the next 48 hours hence the greater landfall threat due to less trough interaction and a stronger ridge building in to the north whereas the recurve solutions take it well north of 25N the next 48 hours. We will know a lot based simply on what happens the next 24-48 hours.
 
snowlover91 said:
The tracks that come close to the US or landfall stay much further south the next 48 hours hence the greater landfall threat due to less trough interaction and a stronger ridge building in to the north whereas the recurve solutions take it well north of 25N the next 48 hours. We will know a lot based simply on what happens the next 24-48 hours.
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This run look like the EPS from 2 runs ago (bigger spread and many fewer SE US hits). If there had not been that very threatening 0Z EPS, this run would have been thought of as equally threatening. But compared to the 0Z, it is way less threatening.
 
GaWx said:
This run look like the EPS from 2 runs ago (bigger spread and many fewer SE US hits). If there had not been that very threatening 0Z EPS, this run would have been thought of as equally threatening. But compared to the 0Z, it is way less threatening.
Click to expand...
Agreed, the EPS has been back and forth quite a bit and probably will be until we see which track verifies the next 48 hours as that will have significant implications on whether the threat increases or not. Notice the 18z suite below and how the divergence starts around 50W and then really expands by 55W. When we are dealing with the potential of trough interaction models will have widely diverging scenarios as we get close to the timeframe in question. By 55W if this is at or below 26N I think the chances of a US impact go up considerable whereas a track at 55W and north of 27N will allow this to have a chance for trough interaction. Shear appears to be affecting the core of Florence now and how much she weakens will play a big role as well.

06L_tracks_18z.png
 
GaWx said:
This run look like the EPS from 2 runs ago (bigger spread and many fewer SE US hits). If there had not been that very threatening 0Z EPS, this run would have been thought of as equally threatening. But compared to the 0Z, it is way less threatening.
Click to expand...

Agree, compared with the 0z run it appears like it backed off but when you look at this it looks troubling still. There is a weak trough digging into the SE at day 7. I bet if we plotted past SE/MA hurricanes that hit land it would look somewhat like the 5h map below.

14-km EPS Global Tropical Atlantic 500 hPa Height Anom 168.png eps_mslp_lows_atlantic_168.png
 
Kylo said:
Agree, compared with the 0z run it appears like it backed off but when you look at this it looks troubling still. There is a weak trough digging into the SE at day 7. I bet if we plotted past SE/MA hurricanes that hit land it would look somewhat like the 5h map below.

View attachment 5854 View attachment 5853
Click to expand...
Just need a little more of a closed ull over the western SE and that's a carolinas hit look

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
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