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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Farther north but the trough is also a little farther NE

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GaWx said:
More great stuff from “Shell Mound” elsewhere:

“While I currently expect Florence to curve OTS east of Bermuda, there are some worrying indicators:

*Because Florence has been much more intense than expected, it is certainly farther NE than most of the global models indicated (except the GFS). While this might tend to favour a track OTS, there are some other consequences of this:
**A stronger Florence is a slower Florence. The UKMET and ECMWF have not only been too weak and too far SW with Florence, but also too fast. The GFS has been the slowest and farthest NE, correctly. The last seven runs of the GFS have accurately forecast Florence's intensity and track vs. other models, and worryingly, these last seven runs have shifted Florence farther S by day five (ninety-six hours). That means Florence is going to slow down even more over the next several days. This is bad because:
a) This gives more time for the long-wave trough off the East Coast to miss Florence by days five and six;
b) The TUTT near the Azores retrogrades faster to the SW and is much closer to Florence by then;
c) The feedback -- stronger Florence -> slower Florence -> enhances mid-level shortwave ridging nearby -> misses long-wave trough -> TUTT enhances ridging to the N of the Greater Antilles -> very strong East-Coast ridge extends NE to SW behind long-wave trough -> possibility of Irma- or Ike-like WSW dip for prolonged period of time beyond days five and six
d) If this scenario plays out, it is the second most likely one behind an outright OTS path. IF this happens, then ridging is likely to be sufficiently strong and angled as to drive a very intense Cat-4/5+ Florence WSW, W, and then WNW into FL/eastern Gulf under very favourable outflow conditions (Irma), meaning also lots of ACE build-up and increase in wind field due to some ERCs along the way to FL/Gulf

This looks like all or nothing. If this doesn't curve OTS, we could be looking at something very big and bad for FL and the Gulf.

Oh, and this will likely be a Cat-4 later today...”
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Good information. Not good to think of this as an all or nothing situation as there is always a second chance for a recurve up the coast later on assuming another situation shows up. That being said, you better watch this yourself. If a recurve doesn't occur, anywhere from FL to NC is at risk, including the GA coast as shown by some ensemble members.
 
Looks like the remnants of Gordon may play a bigger role if it's stronger in pushing the ridge out. Might prevent the next ridge from building in and prevent Florence from hitting land. Pretty much what the GFS is saying right now. Something to track over the next several days.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like the remnants of Gordon may play a bigger role if it's stronger in pushing the ridge out. Might prevent the next ridge from building in and prevent Florence from hitting land. Pretty much what the GFS is saying right now. Something to track over the next several days.
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We can certainly hope this is the case, but the GFS is still trucking west this run, it definitely worries me because I know this model's overdeepening and recurvature bias will erroneously skew things in favor of Florence not hitting the US.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We can certainly hope this is the case, but the GFS is still trucking west this run, it definitely worries me because I know this model's overdeepening and recurvature bias will erroneously skew things in favor of Florence not hitting the US.
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Good point. Unfortunately the pressure causes the bias from what it looks like and we all know how bad the GFS is at pressure predictions. So in reality, the pull northward won't be as strong as depicted. It's funny but everything this run is NE of the last one. Everything from the highs to the lows. It also is doing what I thought it would with Gordon's remnants. The stronger low allows for an escape and that's where this run is headed.
 
Gordon's remnants merge with this other low and make some large blob and Florence goes east towards it. A low of that size seems unrealistic.
gfs_mslpa_atl_37.png
 
Euro and GFS aren't that far apart at day 6-7. GFS's progressive bias may be why it whiffs. That low in the central atlantic that several have highlighted already is a big reason why the Euro tracked Florence into the conus.

GFS-Euro.gif
 
Yeah here the gfs has her moving NE and Euro WNW with a very similar pattern.

08b6da6cb11d60f57f40f6959fe91e4c.png


739bb3e16357c47fdc8c3f81ae84a7bd.png



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BHS1975 said:
Yeah here the gfs has her moving NE and Euro WNW with a very similar pattern.

08b6da6cb11d60f57f40f6959fe91e4c.png


739bb3e16357c47fdc8c3f81ae84a7bd.png



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Click to expand...

Maybe we should be looking for a middle of the road scenario. Not as far west as the Euro shows, but not as big of a curve north as the GFS shows.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like the remnants of Gordon may play a bigger role if it's stronger in pushing the ridge out. Might prevent the next ridge from building in and prevent Florence from hitting land. Pretty much what the GFS is saying right now. Something to track over the next several days.
Click to expand...

Good post. If Gordon’s remnants end up stronger than model consensus and track close enough to the NE US at the right time, it COULD increase the odds of Florence recurving safely. I still recall last year when a legit H threat to NC (Maria if I’m not mistaken) steered away due to just the weakening remnants of another TC that was hanging around not too far to the north (Jose I think). Those remnants, though weak, were all that was needed to cause steering to turn Maria away from NC. Anyone recall this?
 
Dumb question, but how do you find the floater images of Florence (or any other storm for that manner)? I used to go to NHC and find them under the satellite section. But now, it just looks like all they have are wide area views. I'm sure I just don't know where to go.
 
Rain Cold said:
Dumb question, but how do you find the floater images of Florence (or any other storm for that manner)? I used to go to NHC and find them under the satellite section. But now, it just looks like all they have are wide area views. I'm sure I just don't know where to go.
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Not a "dumb" question at all ... ;)
Per www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php
"The GOES-16 Satellite is now officially GOES-East. Some webpages designed for the retired GOES-13 satellite are not currently available, including floater imagery."
Does this get you what you'd like to look at?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
Hope so!
 
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