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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
Did I mistakenly eat a strange mushroom, or is this in reverse?
Brent
Member
GFS still gonna miss most of the coast it seems, maybe New England?
Haha sorry. Joking aside it's not an ideal setup to bring cooler weather to the SE. To really an enhance cooler weather in the eastern and southern US we would need a trough picking the system up. In this case we have a ridge building over top. Down the road in 10+ days florence might get captured by a trough and cooler weather be enhanced in the lakes, northeast and maybe mid atlantic
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Yep. Gfs got really excited about the trough with the Gordon remnants and dampened the ridge off of the EC and forced it a bit SE this allowed for a recurve even in the face of rapidly rising heights in the eastern US
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Brent
Member
GFS actually east of the 12z now lol, misses the coast entirely maybe?
pcbjr
Member
Just a respectful word or two of heed ... it is the 18z, and for now she's torn apart ... two parts of a multi-part equation that suggest what's on the left of the "=" sign is still being calculated ...
It may be far enough north on the gfs at 174 to get kicked out. If not this run is a slow loop with possibly a second run at the EC
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Long days ahead...
Gfs is about to go bombs away in the north atlantic. Strong jet incoming and florence just sitting there
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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DT getting practice for winter!!:weenie::weenie:
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It actually tied the system up into a front and strings it out. Still a strong system getting into the Canadian maritimes but nothing excessive. The net result of the whole construct and interaction is an omega block over the north Atlantic and a pseudo -nao.
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Brent
Member
FV GFS is also south of its last run
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Anybody know this guy?? I hope the effects of his tweets, don’t affect the outcome!
pcbjr
Member
Or his use of improper English grammar ...View attachment 5886 Anybody know this guy?? I hope the effects of his tweets, don’t affect the outcome!
I have never seen this website before, I assume it's legit.... pretty awesome actually, has hi res Euro wind, precip, etc. Interestingscary movie here
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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JBs daily Wilkesborodud, MS paint maps!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I definitely have an uneasy feeling about this storm seeing the Fv3/GFS/GEFS suites already as far west as they are w/ a building ridge overhead, we usually know how this story ends.
I think this map might have been shared earlier, not sure, but it's obvious her path in the short term..... will not be surprised to a little WSW jog in there as has been mentioned. Not really a lot of good news today overall with Flo
pcbjr
Member
Take that straight to JAX, if we were only dealing with steering ... but thank God there are other players ...I think this map might have been shared earlier, not sure, but it's obvious her path in the short term..... will not be surprised to a little WSW jog in there as has been mentioned. Not really a lot of good news today overall with Flo
Seems I used to have site bookmarked where you could view the Ukmet ens (mogreps) but I can't find it anywhere.... I know some of you have shared those maps but is there a free site with them?
thekidcurtis
Member
pcbjr
Member
dadgum quick ... you beat me to it ... good job!
Lol I just found it again.... and thanks!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 0z BEST track is out and Florence has been downgraded to a tropical storm, the 11 o'clock advisory should reflect this.
AL, 06, 2018090700, , BEST, 0, 250N, 498W, 60, 994, TS
AL, 06, 2018090700, , BEST, 0, 250N, 498W, 60, 994, TS
pcbjr
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
BTW, for those that are curious where to find BEST track when it updates, go the site attached below, these usually come out an hour or two before the official NHC advisory and are 90-95% of the time used verbatim in the NHC advisory packages, occasionally there will be a small tweaks here or there by the experts, especially when storms are undergoing rapid changes in intensity or recon is flying into the storm, but it's nice to have on hand.
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
snowlover91
Member
Not surprising either considering the shallow convection and core interruption. Once she gets past the shear it’ll take a day or two before she gets going. Here’s an interesting microwave pass showing the core unraveling.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_07.html
I know the Ukmet has a south bias but that is a decent grouping showing FL. Very Irma like at that.
pcbjr
Member
Cursing and such diabolic profanity is not allowed ... LOL
Keep in mind that the 12Z UKMET ensemble initialized 50 miles to the SW of Flo and that all members are currently S of the actual position. Therefore, I expect a further north ensemble mean in the next run. I expect fewer members into FL.
snowlover91
Member
Yep for the next 2 days she’s supposed to hover near the 25N area.
That is true, but what it tells me is that all of them in that grouping shows a more westward overall motion which would make sense if Florence continues to weaken and becomes more shallow.
The ensembles may miss the initial location but may be right about the general idea.
pcbjr
Member
Going way out on a limb here, with so much uncertainty ... but ... Flo seems to be a nice movie; 92L may be the actor that busts through the 3D screen and into the livingroom ...
Here's some pretty interesting history going back to 1851:
Out of all of the 1,500+ or so TCs on record since 1851, not a single one hit the CONUS that moved NW-NNW-N (315+ degrees) east of 48W! Currently, the furthest east was storm #5 of 1906: it moved NW from 48.0 to 48.4 and then turned NNW for a short time before turning back WNW and later hitting the US:
http://weather.unisys.com/sites/default/files/mnt/webdata/hurricane/atlantic/1906/5/track.gif
IF Flo were to later hit the CONUS, it would establish a new record for the furthest east NW moving storm to later do so as it moved NW starting at 46.6W and continuing through 47.9W.
Out of all of the 1,500+ or so TCs on record since 1851, not a single one hit the CONUS that moved NW-NNW-N (315+ degrees) east of 48W! Currently, the furthest east was storm #5 of 1906: it moved NW from 48.0 to 48.4 and then turned NNW for a short time before turning back WNW and later hitting the US:
http://weather.unisys.com/sites/default/files/mnt/webdata/hurricane/atlantic/1906/5/track.gif
IF Flo were to later hit the CONUS, it would establish a new record for the furthest east NW moving storm to later do so as it moved NW starting at 46.6W and continuing through 47.9W.
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