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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

A178D45B-028C-4125-B258-904C527974CD.png Looks like B Rad, is good with Hurricanes like he is snow! :D
 
As you can see a track like the Euro is showing passing just south of Bermuda and hitting the US would be rare.

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From Levi, as can see Flo is north if guidance, we've seen subtle changes make for huge implications, we shall see..



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Oh I get hysterical hysteria
Oh can you feel it do you believe it
It's such a magical mysteria
When you get a feelin' better start believin'
Cause it's a miracle oh say you will ooh babe
Hysteria when you're near

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ForsythSnow said:
He is always over the top. I remember laughing at his Irma intensity forecast last year. Bet if that happened in that scenario no greater than a weak cat 3 will hit.
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I don't know, if it takes that track, it's tucked underneath that subtropical high and probably in a very good environment.
 
Looks like things are still up in the air, with the models disagreeing. Euro and UK are concerning. Flo might be telling the others that have her going out to sea:

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The NHC doesn't know what to make of Florence. They mentioned their entire forecast has low confidence and that they are surprised that it's surviving among the shear. They do mention the track has shifted west again but the models have yet to reach a consensus beyond day 3.
 
I remember last year with Irma at this range where it was a showing a NC/SC hit and UK was furtherest southwest. It was being discounted because the maps below were showing the OBS north of the modeled track. Irma ended up tracking within the cone below for the most part. If I had any money I would bet on a recurve because this is going to take a really strong ridge to keep this climbing poleward.

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Is it true that a stronger hurricane is less influenced by small weaknesses/disturbances in the atmosphere? Do they tend to continue charging Westward on their own (except for a trough of course).
 
Shawn said:
Is it true that a stronger hurricane is less influenced by small weaknesses/disturbances in the atmosphere? Do they tend to continue charging Westward on their own (except for a trough of course).
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If I remember right, it was mentioned last year that stronger hurricanes tend to pull northward on their own. However there are exceptions like ridging. Right now, Florence is pulling north due to a weakening ridge to its north. A new one is expected to build out and prevent it from going north and then weaken again, hence the northward pull again. However, it's the one after that will determine the escape or not.

As far as environmental conditions, it's the size of the storm. Florence is small, and the NHC mentions it found an area of lighter shear and the maps don't show everything correctly in the area. The warm water is what's really fueling development at the moment.
 
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