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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

snowlover91 said:
Not good.. the UK has shifted north in line with the Euro pointing to a NC landfall. Here is the text output.
HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2018 0 24.1N 48.6W 1001 57
0000UTC 07.09.2018 12 25.0N 49.9W 998 62
1200UTC 07.09.2018 24 25.2N 51.5W 994 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 36 25.0N 52.7W 989 68
1200UTC 08.09.2018 48 24.8N 54.1W 984 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 60 24.7N 55.1W 981 56
1200UTC 09.09.2018 72 24.8N 56.5W 980 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 84 25.2N 58.0W 975 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 96 26.0N 60.4W 973 63
0000UTC 11.09.2018 108 27.2N 63.5W 971 69
1200UTC 11.09.2018 120 28.3N 67.7W 965 71
0000UTC 12.09.2018 132 29.2N 71.3W 960 71
1200UTC 12.09.2018 144 30.6N 74.3W 957 81
Click to expand...
Seems like more of a GA/SC risk per that run.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Seems like more of a GA/SC risk per that run.
Click to expand...

With it rounding the ridge it would probably take a more NW approach if the UK run went out a bit further. Here is the graph, blue line. Either way it's definitely ominous for the East Coast and all models are converging inside the 6 day window that there are increased odds for a landfall. To summarize, GFS shifted west considerably, CMC has landfall in NC, UK adjusted north and looks to threaten land.
storm_06.gif
 
Sounds like all the other models are ganging up on the GFS now.
 
Flooding could be a major concern as well if this makes landfall and slows down/stalls like the CMC indicates.
gem_apcpn_seus_39.png
 
The more time passes in this shear, the higher percentage chance we are tracking a dead naked swirl. Shear is killing Florence at this point.
 
Arcc said:
The more time passes in this shear, the higher percentage chance we are tracking a dead naked swirl. Shear is killing Florence at this point.
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It's hanging in there though. Convection is developing over the center again so it's still strong inside, just being beat up heavily. Not good news if it's weak and gets shoved further west and south.
 
Interesting track there. Basically it hits 25N and just goes due west or wsw even for a time.
 
Very strong ridge on the Euro at 96 hours and well within it's wheelhouse too. No OTS track here and will likely be another landfall if I had to guess.
ecmwf_z500a_atl_5.png
 
Compare this with the GFS ridging at the same time, much weaker on the GFS hence the northern track it takes.
gfs_z500a_atl_17.png
 
Thought this was headed straight to ILM at this point. Still wants to ram right into a super strong ridge.

2450B6E5-E3A4-4537-8E26-CF3B26AF6AC1.png
 
Does anyone have a good link they can provide here to current closeup satellite imagery of Florence? TIA

Edit: preferably with latitude/longitude lines

I don't know why it seems harder than it used to see storm closeup images.
 
@Kylo It doesn't appear to be ramming through the ridge. Notice the orientation of the ridge is NW to SE, the flow aloft moves the storm to the NW and then NNW as it nears the edge of it. The ridge orientation is also why the GFS is further off the coast now, it has a N to S orientation.
 
The GEFS/GFS given their poleward & overdeepening biases are essentially setting the eastern edge of the guidance envelope w/ Florence in the long run, it's not good to already see some members actually hitting the US and most west of Bermuda at this stage in the game.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS/GFS given their poleward & overdeepening biases are essentially setting the eastern edge of the guidance envelope w/ Florence in the long run, it's not good to already see some members actually hitting the US and most west of Bermuda at this stage in the game.
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Do you think the GFS orientation of the ridge is in error here? I would think climo and the pattern we've seen recently would argue for a stronger ridge oriented more like the Euro/CMC show vs the GFS.
 
Based on current shear maps and model forecast shear, it looks like another 12-18 hours before the shear begins to rapidly drop off. Current shear appears to be 30-40kts but should quickly drop off past 55W where she should start strengthening again.
wg8shr.GIF
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's hanging in there though. Convection is developing over the center again so it's still strong inside, just being beat up heavily. Not good news if it's weak and gets shoved further west and south.
Click to expand...

Yes, but with the shear aloft you should be seeing explosive convection, just off to the NE. However you aren't just still warming cloud tops suggesting lots of dry air entrained as well.
 
snowlover91 said:
Based on current shear maps and model forecast shear, it looks like another 12-18 hours before the shear begins to rapidly drop off. Current shear appears to be 30-40kts but should quickly drop off past 55W where she should start strengthening again.
wg8shr.GIF
Click to expand...

I'd add another 8-12hrs on top of that. Shear always seem to last longer than predicted.
 
Arcc said:
Yes, but with the shear aloft you should be seeing explosive convection, just off to the NE. However you aren't just still warming cloud tops suggesting lots of dry air entrained as well.
Click to expand...
Yeah the convection has warmed heavily in addition to the latest strength now being at 85 mph. It might even become a TS again by tonight at the rate its falling apart.
 
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