The thing that’s crazy is it made it to a major hurricane within a very hostile environment! It just cruises as weak storm for awhile and doesn’t get picked up, there’s plenty of good environment and of course the Gulf Stream, if it doesn’t recurve!
The upper level pattern depicted is scary.. basically perfect outflow and absolutely 0 shear on the GFS with a massive anticyclone over Florence.
And all depends how far west she travels before Flo feels the effects to start pulling a wnw or nw motion again. If Flo stays strong on a due west movement or even a wsw/sw as some models are saying, could she miss the pull and put her in a new ballgame as in the track?
Fran is also a good example. The placement of that upper level trough and it’s general presence are important, if it’s over the east-central Gulf Coast, or Deep South, it could drag Florence further into the southeastern US overall. Obviously, this doesn’t mean Florence wouldn’t be capable of doing this w/o it but the odds definitely would increase a lot. Lots of time left to sort this out.You mean like Fran?
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The archives really won't let you save them as a .gif; it takes 3rd party software.
The weaker it is the further south and west it will go. It's almost down to a weak cat 1 per Dvorak estimates now and the NHC mentions the ridge building in from the north. I believe, just a thought, that if it remains weak in this time period it will start going due west since it's slowed down now, and usually indicates a change in course. It may even veer WSW a bit more than the NHC cone has it in response to the heavy ridge. However, once the ridge builds and it restrengthens, it'll be ridge VS storm. As soon as the ridge moves past the storm should pull northward unless another one builds in faster. Any speed changes will be extremely influential as well whether it be now or down the road. If it's flying towards the coast it'll be slower to turn unless it hits something to pull it north. Certainly worrying if it doesn't make any turn down the road.
Yea my bad my eyes are not working today. Saw 955 as opposed to 985. Smh lol
Have to watch the runs closely because the GFS and CMC keep wanting to merge Invest 92L and to be designated Invest 93L and shove them northward, which would definitely influence the speed at which the initial high moves out or even if this new low pops up east of that high as well.
