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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Brent said:
landfall near Charleston at 216 moving almost due west, crazy

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Yep. That’s one ugly run. Writing this one off right now is not a good idea. It will be interesting to see what the EPS look like.


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landfall actually appears to be between Charleston and Myrtle Beach next Thursday afternoon

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The crucial latitude to cross before 60W is 30N to very likely avoid the SE US. The 0Z Euro barely did that by moving her west along 30N before moving her WNW. However, the 0Z UKMET has it moving due west way down at 25.2N, the latitude of the far S tip of FL.
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HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 43.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 0 20.5N 43.9W 994 53
1200UTC 05.09.2018 12 21.6N 45.7W 998 52
0000UTC 06.09.2018 24 22.6N 47.8W 1001 50
1200UTC 06.09.2018 36 23.6N 49.7W 1004 48
0000UTC 07.09.2018 48 24.2N 51.1W 1005 46
1200UTC 07.09.2018 60 24.4N 52.9W 1005 44
0000UTC 08.09.2018 72 24.3N 54.2W 1003 42
1200UTC 08.09.2018 84 24.2N 55.1W 999 48
0000UTC 09.09.2018 96 24.5N 56.0W 991 55
1200UTC 09.09.2018 108 24.7N 57.4W 985 53
0000UTC 10.09.2018 120 25.1N 59.1W 971 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 132 25.2N 61.0W 965 70
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 25.2N 63.1W 963 70
 
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Hour 96 of the 0Z EPS mean is not only further S than the 12Z EPS but it is also further south than the 0Z Euro operational.
 
The 12Z EPS had ~1/3 of its members cross 60W south of 30N and more than half of this 1/3 later hit the SE US.
The brand new 0Z EPS has 80%+ of its members crossing 60W south of 30N. This run will undoubtedly have numerous SE hits later OMG.
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GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS had ~1/3 of its members cross 60W south of 30N and more than half of this 1/3 later hit the SE US.
The brand new 0Z EPS has 80%+ of its members crossing 60W south of 30N. This run will undoubtedly have numerous SE hits later OMG.
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Wow

I really didnt think the ensembles would agree that much
 
well, someone is the king of fractions...
 
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Kylo said:
Yep, that's what I was thinking too. Majority still recurve. The system behind it in the NE Caribbean has a chance to get interesting down the road too.

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If you think that the above map showing the 12Z EPS members threatening the SE is somewhat concerning, wait till you see the 0Z EPS. There are so many hits crowded together from north central FL to NC centered on 9/13 that it is very hard to even count them! I very roughly estimate about half of the 51 members hit anywhere from north central FL to NC!
 
I think many people put all their eggs into one basket thinking that if Florence stays strong we're safe and it goes out to sea, the 0z EPS clearly shows even w/ a stronger Florence, there are a lot more pieces to the puzzle that determine its fate and the large-scale steering flow just took an unfavorable turn.
 
if this is like Hugo, 89-90 was a shitastic winter.. let's hope for a re-curve.
 
whamby said:
if this is like Hugo, 89-90 was a shitastic winter.. let's hope for a re-curve.
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Unless of course you're in the coastal areas of the Carolinas that were affected by Hugo, they got rewarded w/ a white Christmas & up to 20" of snow in Brunswick County, NC.
 
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