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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

ForsythSnow said:
That run ended weirdly with the storm going due east then north pulling the next 2 storms with it.
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In a hypothetical situation where it got that far wesmmmmmmm lo mmommmm.mmmmm mo ankmmmmmm

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18z GEFS has the bigger cluster trapped this run.

gfs-ens_mslpa_atl_29.png
 
Hmm where have I seen the 18z GFS before, oh yes, ridge to the north with a weakness over the SE between the ridge centers and a long range OTS solution. Hmm maybe a capture by the weak ULL next run into the Carolinas and then?
 
metwannabe said:
Speak texting and choking do not go hand in hand

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Haha that's awesome. I started typing a message then noticed my dogs were going on an adventure into the woods so I shoved it in but pocket and ran after them.

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Brent said:
33p6aky.png
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To add to the above:

Last 4 GEFS runs with regard to TS+ hits on the US SE coast out of ~21 members:

18Z Mon 0 hits
0Z Tue 0 hits
6Z Tue 4 hits: FL/GA border, SC/NC border, NC OB, skirt NC OB
12Z Tue 2 hits: GA/SC border, SC
———————————————-
New GEFS run (18Z Tue): 5 hits: 2 GA, 3 SC

4 hit 9/13-4; 1 hit 9/17 after hesitating off NC and then moving SW similar to what some EPS members did. Every member that crossed 30N (~12 members) before reaching 60W recurved safely. 9 members crossed 60W below 30N on Monday. All 5 SE US hitters were from that group of 9 and at 60W were at these latitudes: 29.5, 28.0, 27.5, 26, and 22.5.

So, this is the most threatening GEFS run of at least the last 5. Together with what the very threatening 12Z UKMET suite and the more threatening 12Z EPS vs 0Z EPS showed, odds of not hitting the SE US are obviously not nearly as high as they appeared this morning.
 
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from the 11pm discussion



Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt. This
general course is expected to continue through 36 or 48 hours while
the hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge. After that time, the forecast becomes more uncertain,
depending on the presence of a narrow mid-level ridge over the
north-central Atlantic Ocean. A look at the ensemble guidance
shows a bifurcation developing by day 5, with the ECMWF favoring
a more northward turn, and the UKMET ensembles showing a stronger
ridge and a continuation of a west-northwest track. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the
corrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast
undergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the
split in the guidance.
 
Brent said:
from the 11pm discussion



Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt. This
general course is expected to continue through 36 or 48 hours while
the hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge. After that time, the forecast becomes more uncertain,
depending on the presence of a narrow mid-level ridge over the
north-central Atlantic Ocean. A look at the ensemble guidance
shows a bifurcation developing by day 5, with the ECMWF favoring
a more northward turn, and the UKMET ensembles showing a stronger
ridge and a continuation of a west-northwest track. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the
corrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast
undergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the
split in the guidance.
Click to expand...

hmmmm. interesting .
 
GFS looking problematic at day 5 ridging stronger

moving NW at day 7 between Bermuda and the OBX may be a close recurve

Recurve between Bermuda and the OBX on both the GFS and CMC

Into Canada at 300 hours on the gfs briefly gets trapped again
 
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about to hit the SC/NC border area at 192 963 mb on the low res Euro moving almost due west nothing to turn it north
 
Next Wednesday Night 130+ mph gusts off Myrtle Beach on this run verbatim

161xoqs.png
 
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