• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Pretty cool website to search hurricane tracks. Here’s the NC ones passing within 100 miles of RDU.

b062aba6d4d66b258906ebf088044b71.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kylo said:
First time checking UK ensembles but bulk of members are staying south of 30N before crossing 60W. I remember last year for Irma the UK did a good job of modeling it, it was the first model to pickup on Irma scraping Cuba and heading towards western FL.View attachment 5833
Click to expand...

This 12Z UKMET ensemble run is concerning to say the least.
 
Anyone have any Idea why it did so much better than the other models?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This is what I also remember about last year it was either leading the way or out to lunch, seemed to be no middle ground. However the ensembles might have been a different story
Arcc said:
Yep. Although the thing about the UK last year is that it seemed to nail it or it busted horribly.
Click to expand...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
In the face of less-than-desirable conditions Florence has strengthened today if this continues she'll no doubt find the Escape Route in my opinion. Still a lot to watch

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
pcbjr said:
#2

Thanks to FS for putting this together (Yup, we do have a Wiki) ...

http://wiki.southernwx.com/doku.php?id=2017_hurricane_season
View attachment 5834
Click to expand...
A side note is that the list isn't complete as I hadn't had the time to go back and read through what I listed in what the models showed and figured out which one won. All the model outputs should be there under each storm and I've kept that up to date. Someday I'll get around to uploading all the storm images and finishing the articles.
 
I certainly am in the camp that Florence will try to find a way out to sea or at the very least mill around for a while before being taken out, however I also recognize that by no means are we out of the woods just yet, even w/ Florence as intense as she is, it's worth mentioning that some EPS members that turned Florence west did so even when this was a hurricane upon approaching Bermuda, a stronger Florence certainly increases the chance it goes OTS but it far from guarantees it because the evolution large-scale steering flow also matters a lot here.
 
ForsythSnow said:
A side note is that the list isn't complete as I hadn't had the time to go back and read through what I listed in what the models showed and figured out which one won. All the model outputs should be there under each storm and I've kept that up to date. Someday I'll get around to uploading all the storm images and finishing the articles.
Click to expand...
Good team ... just a long game ... ;)
 
18z gfs will be interesting. Hasn't been picked up at 138. Ridge is building over the NE and the trough over the maritimes is kicking out. This run may get west, it probably would have about 24 hours from 138 to exit NE before the ridge built in enough to resume the west track

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_32.png

SD said:
18z gfs will be interesting. Hasn't been picked up at 138. Ridge is building over the NE and the trough over the maritimes is kicking out. This run may get west, it probably would have about 24 hours from 138 to exit NE before the ridge built in enough to resume the west track

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
 
SD said:
18z gfs will be interesting. Hasn't been picked up at 138. Ridge is building over the NE and the trough over the maritimes is kicking out. This run may get west, it probably would have about 24 hours from 138 to exit NE before the ridge built in enough to resume the west track

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah it's not going anywhere with that ridge built over and headed almost due west at 186. Has 2 other developed storms in tow as well versus the 2 just merging like previous runs.

At 198 it's got a clear shot out now but it'll scrape the coast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah it's not going anywhere with that ridge built over and headed almost due west at 186. Has 2 other developed storms in tow as well versus the 2 just merging like previous runs.

At 198 it's got a clear shot out now but it'll scrape the coast.
Click to expand...
Goes to show how subtle changes can cause a big difference. This run was a little farther south with florence and faster/weaker with the trough. I still think the safe money is with an OTS solution whether it's in the central Atlantic or approaching the east coast. It's incredibly difficult to drive a system due west at that latitude even with the amount of ridging we have seen

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Goes to show how subtle changes can cause a big difference. This run was a little farther south with florence and faster/weaker with the trough. I still think the safe money is with an OTS solution whether it's in the central Atlantic or approaching the east coast. It's incredibly difficult to drive a system due west at that latitude even with the amount of ridging we have seen

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That run ended weirdly with the storm going due east then north pulling the next 2 storms with it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top