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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Is there any chance that Flo could go further west than what models show? Not that I'm wanting a storm, just wondering since we are tracking.
 
accu35 said:
Is there any chance that Flo could go further west than what models show? Not that I'm wanting a storm, just wondering since we are tracking.
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there always is in these setups... ridges are typically too weak and troughs overdone

at 228 hours its moving NNE just south of NYC
 
This is Irma at about the same timeframe. As you can see no OTS solutions.

a65a1a342d4bbf4b8581c5cc77e6fa1e.jpg



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BHS1975 said:
Anyone know a good site for the ukie?


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Maybe our Wiki can help ... (??) ...
Euro/UKMET Related - Free (Choose Inside The Link – Along With Other Models)
or maybe the 5th model down here will assist (??) ... https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
also in our Wiki ... ;)
 
12Z UKMET Florence:

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 21.6N 45.5W 998 49
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 22.7N 47.6W 1001 55

So, the actual NHC location's latitude as of 5 PM EDT, 22.7N, is already at the same latitude as this UKMET's 8 PM EDT position. And the longitude at 5 PM EDT was only 46.6W or a full degree east of the UKMET's 8 PM position or near the assumed UKMET's 2 PM EDT position. Translation: just as is the case for the 12Z EPS mean, Flo is currently north of the 12Z UKMET track by a nontrivial amount, a hopeful sign for a down the road safe recurve.
 
The UKMET has a profound and well known SW bias and is the southernmost outlier in the NWP suites over the last few days. The fact that Florence is NE of this model doesn't really carry much hope that this will recurve per say. The collective tendency of NWP of late has been away from the recurve w/ Florence missing the trough to the north and getting stuck under the ridge and sliding near or just south of Bermuda, even then a hit is not guaranteed but an easy recurve is starting to become less likely especially after the recent changes to its forecast track inside day 3.
 
GaWx said:
12Z UKMET Florence:

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 21.6N 45.5W 998 49
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 22.7N 47.6W 1001 55

So, the actual NHC location's latitude as of 5 PM EDT, 22.7N, is already at the same latitude as this UKMET's 8 PM EDT position. And the longitude at 5 PM EDT was only 46.6W or a full degree east of the UKMET's 8 PM position or near the assumed UKMET's 2 PM EDT position. Translation: just as is the case for the 12Z EPS mean, Flo is currently north of the 12Z UKMET track by a nontrivial amount, a hopeful sign for a down the road safe recurve.
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Webberweather53 said:
The UKMET has a profound and well known SW bias and is the southernmost outlier in the NWP suites over the last few days. The fact that Florence is NE of this model doesn't really carry much hope that this will recurve per say. The collective tendency of NWP of late has been away from the recurve w/ Florence missing the trough to the north and getting stuck under the ridge and sliding near or just south of Bermuda, even then a hit is not guaranteed but an easy recurve is starting to become less likely especially after the recent changes to its forecast track inside day 3.
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doublevision.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The UKMET has a profound and well known SW bias and is the southernmost outlier in the NWP suites over the last few days. The fact that Florence is NE of this model doesn't really carry much hope that this will recurve per say. The collective tendency of NWP of late has been away from the recurve w/ Florence missing the trough to the north and getting stuck under the ridge and sliding near or just south of Bermuda, even then a hit is not guaranteed but an easy recurve is starting to become less likely especially after the recent changes to its forecast track inside day 3.
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The key word is "hope". I'd rather see it north very early in the run rather than right on all other things being equal. When I say safe recurve, I don't mean easy recurve. I mean any decent distance offshore, which would be great news for the E coast. I mean safe as in safe from danger. 250 miles offshore is safe from my perspective. I realize that the odds of her getting stuck are not low, regardless.

By the way, is this SW bias common this early in the run?
 
GaWx said:
The key word is "hope". I'd rather see it north very early in the run rather than right on all other things being equal. When I say safe recurve, I don't mean easy recurve. I mean any decent distance offshore, which would be great news for the E coast. I mean safe as in safe from danger. 250 miles offshore is safe from my perspective. I realize that the odds of her getting stuck are not low, regardless.

By the way, is this SW bias common this early in the run?
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Larry,
Unscientific, but history suggests that models on these storms do shift west southwest with time, early on ... but that's just me watching a quarter century of computer generated tropical runs ... :confused:
bottom line, in my very humble opinion, is we're 5 days out before giving any model real credence ... but ... watch the trends ...
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Unscientific, but history suggests that models on these storms do shift west southwest with time, early on ... but that's just me watching a quarter century of computer generated tropical runs ... :confused:
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I know Irma did big time! And Florence already has. But that doesn't mean Florence will necessarily do more of this from this point.

Edited for @pcbjr
 
GaWx said:
JB thinks that models are going to underestimate the ridge in the W Atlantic due to ridiculously warm waters there. @Webberweather53 @1300m @deltadog03 and others here, is he right or not?
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JB forecast from today is a 75% chance of it hitting NC/SC as a cat 4 next week!?
 
A great reminder from "caneseddy" posting elsewhere:

"Also, last season UKMET for several days kept Jose heading west towards Florida while every model said out to sea, until eventually it caved..just food for thought (not to say it should be discounted)."

I do remember this. It was horrible. But it was fantastic with Irma!
 
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EE9CDD55-8AB9-45FD-A659-5D048332FB57.png This!
 
For the first time in awhile for the GEFS, it appears the 18Z GEFS has no members hitting anywhere south of upper SC with a TS+.
 
Hey I've been following the tropics . Doesn't it mean if a storm is stronger the more likely it is to recurve ? Florence is expected to be a major going northwest .
 
GaWx said:
For the first time in awhile for the GEFS, it appears the 18Z GEFS has no members hitting anywhere south of upper SC with a TS+.
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The concerning thing for me is this, correct me if I'm wrong on this, but over the last couple of days the hope for a recurve was based on Florence escaping in the weakness (trough) in the next 3-4 days but if I'm looking at it correctly all models have her missing that escape route now. And now the recurve is closer to the EC although most still show a recurve..... if Flo misses the trough in a few days I'd say all bets are off, modeling of those Highs in the extended range are always problematic
 
metwannabe said:
The concerning thing for me is this, correct me if I'm wrong on this, but over the last couple of days the hope for a recurve was based on Florence escaping in the weakness (trough) in the next 3-4 days but if I'm looking at it correctly all models have her missing that escape route now. And now the recurve is closer to the EC although most still show a recurve..... if Flo misses the trough in a few days I'd say all bets are off, modeling of those Highs in the extended range are always problematic
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Precisely ...
 
12z GEFS compared to the 18z GEFS.... just for comparison and it looks like the 18z is slightly further west but a safe recurve, but again if she misses that trough in a few days. Lots of "ifs" I know

AL06_2018090512_GEFS_large.png


AL06_2018090518_GEFS_large.png
 
metwannabe said:
12z GEFS compared to the 18z GEFS.... just for comparison and it looks like the 18z is slightly further west but a safe recurve, but again if she misses that trough in a few days. Lots of "ifs" I know

AL06_2018090512_GEFS_large.png


AL06_2018090518_GEFS_large.png
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I'll beat this drum until I'm deaf, or everyone else is ... 7 days out is too much of a fog to sail a ship in to ... trends, yes, a solution, no ...
 
1300m said:
That's a good synopsis of where things stand. The window is closing for the trough recurve scenario, and beyond about 120 hours we still have little idea precisely how the H5 pattern will look to interact to either tug or push Florence west/east.
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Thank you ... ;)
 
Latest estimate of coordinates (as of 0Z):

AL, 06, 2018090600, , BEST, 0, 231N, 469W, 115, 953, HU

So it is still moving just as NW as it has been. 3 hours earlier it was at 22.7/46.6. So, it has moved 0.4N/0.3W since 5 PM. Still no shift back to the model consensus’ WNW. Just sayin’. Food for thought.
 
GaWx said:
Latest estimate of coordinates (as of 0Z):

AL, 06, 2018090600, , BEST, 0, 231N, 469W, 115, 953, HU

So it is still moving just as NW as it has been. 3 hours earlier it was at 22.7/46.6. So, it has moved 0.4N/0.3W since 5 PM. Still no shift back to the model consensus’ WNW. Just sayin’. Food for thought.
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Euro kept it mostly NW on it's run from today. GFS does flatten it out a little bit more but results in roughly the same spot by day 7-8. It's probably why todays runs has shifted potential landfall further north into the mid atlantic, if there is a landfall.

DmWftMiX0AUv89W.jpg:large


DmXUKJvU0AAAv4Y.jpg:large
 
One worry is Hurricane Matthew. It was supposed to miss comfortably east of Florida then day 4-5 models started shifting west run after run. It had a highly anomalous SE Canada ridge too.Matthew.gif


14-km EPS Global undefined undefined 162.png
 
I just noticed something. A mere 48 hours ago it was projected to be at only 21.5 N while already at 48.4 W today. Instead she’s already up to 23.1 N and only to 46.9 W as of 8PM today, which means she’s nearly 150 miles NE of her progged 48 hour NHC position. That’s not chickenfeed. Is this miss due mainly to the strength being way underforecasted? Does this mean that over the next couple of days these misses to the NE are liable to continue? Remember folks that 30N has been established by the models as a crucial latitude to reach before 60W to give a great chance for recurving before hitting the US.
 
GaWx said:
I just noticed something. A mere 48 hours ago it was projected to be at only 21.5 N while already at 48.4 W today. Instead she’s already up to 23.1 N and only to 46.9 W as of 8PM today, which means she’s nearly 150 miles NE of her progged 48 hour NHC position. That’s not chickenfeed. Is this miss due mainly to the strength being way underforecasted? Does this mean that over the next couple of days these misses to the NE are liable to continue? Remember folks that 30N has been established by the models as a crucial latitude to reach before 60W to give a great chance for recurving before hitting the US.
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Something else to note is it's either undergoing an ERC or taking some heavy shear. Looking worse now as a lot of the convection is going NE of the storm.
 
NHC doubting the trough gets it


Florence has been moving more to the right during the past several
hours, likely due to the vortex attempting to stay vertically
aligned in the face of the southwesterly shear, but a longer-term
motion is 310 degrees at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to
strengthen to the north and northwest of Florence, causing the
hurricane to turn west- northwestward by Friday and even westward by
the weekend. It appears that a mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern Atlantic in a few days will likely miss Florence, with
the only perceivable effects on the hurricane being a decrease in
forward speed. The net result is that the model guidance continues
to trend westward at long range, and the official forecast follows
suit, lying just north of the model consensus in deference to the
ECMWF deterministic model and ensemble mean.

It should be noted that there is still considerable model ensemble
spread for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large
uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate
what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next
week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells
emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island.
Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early
next week.
 
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Brent said:
NHC doubting the trough gets it

It appears that a mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern Atlantic in a few days will likely miss Florence, with
the only perceivable effects on the hurricane being a decrease in
forward speed. The net result is that the model guidance continues
to trend westward at long range, and the official forecast follows
suit, lying just north of the model consensus in deference to the
ECMWF deterministic model and ensemble mean.

It should be noted that there is still considerable model ensemble
spread for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large
uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate
what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next
week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells
emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island.
Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early
next week.
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Yeah and their track is almost going due WNW in the long run now. They also are expecting a return to cat 4 status by day 5.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Something else to note is it's either undergoing an ERC or taking some heavy shear. Looking worse now as a lot of the convection is going NE of the storm.
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Heavy shear. 30kts right now and may pass through a band of 40kts of shear. Also, mid level shear is pretty high and we will probably see significant weakening.

Interestingly the GFS has done the best with Florence so it would be the model I would look at the hardest along with the Euro.

Larry, the NE trends today are interesting but I don’t know if they’ll matter soon. Once this gets to about 25N it should bend hard west like hitting a wall. Now if she keeps chugging NW then chances of interaction with the trough go up in a big way.
 
snowlover91 said:
Heavy shear. 30kts right now and may pass through a band of 40kts of shear. Also, mid level shear is pretty high and we will probably see significant weakening.

Interestingly the GFS has done the best with Florence so it would be the model I would look at the hardest along with the Euro.

Larry, the NE trends today are interesting but I don’t know if they’ll matter soon. Once this gets to about 25N it should bend hard west like hitting a wall. Now if she keeps chugging NW then chances of interaction with the trough go up in a big way.
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What I was thinking. There has not been an appreciable ridge to stop it from climbing past day or so and with the big spike in strength a more poleward track isn’t surprising over past 48 hours. But, every little bit helps which might be why we are seeing models shift north of NC with potential landfall. Tomorrow heights build and Florence should weaken so as you said a more westward track should occur.


gfs_z500aNorm_atl_1.png



gfs_z500aNorm_atl_4.png
 
Rick said:
Hey I've been following the tropics . Doesn't it mean if a storm is stronger the more likely it is to recurve ? Florence is expected to be a major going northwest .
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Hi Rick,
I'd say in general based on memory I'd lean that way, but every storm is different. From what I've read, I do think it has tracked more NW than WNW the last 2 days overall due to it being stronger than progged. Going forward, I'm not sure if this idea will continue to hold for Flo, however.
 
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