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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

TWC has jumped all over Gordon, guess it makes for good TV and live coverage!? They have all but written off Flo, yesterday still calling it a fish storm! If no recurve, they gonna look stupid
 
Too soon to write off Flo. She is still a ways out and the track is nowhere set in stone yet.
 
You can see the westward tug on the 18z gfs but it eventually goes ots

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Kylo said:
Euro just modeled it to 30/60 and then due west. I would imagine there isn’t a TS that was north of 30N prior to 60W that hit the conus. I thought maybe if it ended up south of 25/60 it could have a chance.
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I agree that a track from 30/60 to the conus would be very highly anomalous. However, it wouldn’t be unprecedented, believe it or not. H Ginger of 1971 moved ENE to near 33/48 before turning around and coming all of the way back to NC!!
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1971/Hurricane-Ginger

Also, this was not the only TS+ to hit conus from near or north of 30/60. The Yankee Hurricane of November of 1935 went from near 32.5/61 and hit Miami moving SW!
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1935/Yankee-Hurricane

There may be a couple of others. If I get a chance, I’ll look.

Edit: I agree that the 12Z EPS was much less ominous than the 0Z EPS.
 
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Kyle of 2002 came from 33/50 and hit the SE US:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2002.png

So, we have Kyle of 2002, Ginger of 1971, and the Yankee H of 1935. So, a very exclusive group though I'm still looking for more.

Side note: outer spiral bands of tstorms/showers on and off here from Gordon here last few hours.

**Edit: I found no more. So, assuming I didn't miss one, there are only 3 TS+ on record back to 1851 that hit the CONUS from north or east of 30N, 60W: Kyle (2002), Ginger (1971), and Yankee H (1935). So, over the last 100 years, about once every 30 years.

For @Kylo and others
 
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354
WTNT31 KNHC 040230
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

...FLORENCE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 41.0W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 41.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly
slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but
some weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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605
WTNT41 KNHC 040231
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

Although Florence continues to produce a fairly circular area of
deep convection, microwave images have revealed that there is a
significant southwest-to-northeast vertical tilt of the
circulation due to southwesterly shear. The initial intensity is
held at 60 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and
SAB. This estimate is a little below the latest automated Dvorak
values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

The strong tropical storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285
degrees, at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The
storm is expected to gradually turn northwestward with a decrease
in forward speed during the next several days as it moves
toward a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge. There
remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance, especially in the
3- to 5-day time period, but the consensus aids have changed little
this cycle. Therefore, no significant changes were made to the
previous forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday as
Florence remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind
shear conditions. Slight weakening is expected during the middle
part of the week due to a gradual increase in southwesterly or
westerly shear. Beyond that time, however, the shear is expected to
decrease and Florence will be over much warmer waters. Therefore,
slow strengthening is shown at the end of the forecast period.
This forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good
agreement with the HCCA guidance.

The 34- and 50-kt initial wind radii have been expanded outward
based on recent ASCAT passes.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.9N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.4N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.1N 44.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.1N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.1N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.5N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 26.8N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 28.4N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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yeah GFS definitely closer to the Euro, still might sneak out but definitely not as obvious

Recurving in time but 924 mb!

CMC again recurves barely but is very close to the east coast from the OBX to Cape Cod
 
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Florence continues to hold her own in the eastern Atlantic which is generally good news for the eastern US, the stronger this TC is now the less likely it is to make landfall on the eastern seaboard although we're not out of the woods yet, we still have to wait another 3 days or so to be completely sure especially as Jebi's wavetrain is resolved in the models.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Florence continues to hold her own in the eastern Atlantic which is generally good news for the eastern US, the stronger this TC is now the less likely it is to make landfall on the eastern seaboard although we're not out of the woods yet, we still have to wait another 3 days or so to be completely sure especially as Jebi's wavetrain is resolved in the models.
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Yeah we may be dodging a bullet with Florence maintaining its strength and even strengthening slowly. If it had fallen apart we would be in trouble. We of course still could be should it suddenly get ripped apart by something. Maybe the GFS was right all along.
 
It's interesting wasn't the Euro forecasting Florence to become a hurricane and then weakening back to Tropical Storm status when it was showing the westward track? Haven't looked at the 0z Euro but I'm assuming now it does not show that weakening?
ForsythSnow said:
Florence appears to be a hurricane and will be declared one in the 11 am advisory.
Click to expand...

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336
WTNT31 KNHC 041436
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...
...NO THREAT TO LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 42.5W
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 42.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A slower
northwestward motion is forecast to begin Thursday and continue
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and
continue through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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386
WTNT41 KNHC 041437
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

Florence's structure has gradually increased in organization, with
SSMIS passes from a few hours ago revealing the development of a
mid-level microwave eye. Dvorak estimates have responded in
kind--TAFB is up to T4.0, SAB is at T4.5, and the objective ADT is
in between at T4.4. Since there still appears to be moderate
southwesterly shear inducing some tilt to the cyclone and
disrupting the infrared satellite pattern, the initial intensity is
raised conservatively to 65 kt, making Florence a hurricane.

The current motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt, with
Florence positioned near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge. The steering pattern ahead of Florence is rather complicated
and will be evolving over the next few days. A large and complex
mid-/upper-level trough located northeast of the Leeward Islands is
expected to give way to the development of two upper-level highs
centered near the Greater Antilles and southwest of the Azores, with
Florence slowing down and turning northwestward between these new
features. Despite this complex pattern, the spread in the track
models is less than normal, which increases the confidence in the
NHC track forecast for the next 5 days. There is some spread which
begins to develop around day 5, with the ECMWF model moving Florence
a little faster toward the north while the GFS maintains a slower
speed and keeps the system to the south. The updated NHC track
forecast has been nudged slightly to the east of the previous
forecast on days 4 and 5, close to the TVCX consensus but not as far
as the HCCA and ECMWF models. There is still too much model spread
after day 5 to speculate what Florence might do beyond the official
forecast period.

Despite Florence becoming a hurricane, the southwesterly shear
affecting the cyclone is expected to increase over the next day or
two, which should prevent further intensification. In fact, the
increasing shear, as well as mid-level relative humidities below 50
percent, should cause weakening between 24 and 72 hours. After 72
hours, decreasing shear and warmer sea surface temperatures should
foster some re-intensification, with Florence expected to reattain
hurricane intensity by day 5. The intensity guidance is in good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is very close to a blend of HCCA,
the Florida State Superensemble, and the ICON consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.7N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.3N 46.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.4N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 23.6N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 25.6N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 27.5N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 29.5N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Still interesting how subtle differences at day 5-6 make such a big difference in track. Latest GEFS gets it relatively close to the coast. Still 7+ days out.


gfs-ens_z500a_atl_28.png
 
The GEFS has a few members near the East Coast but most take it OTS with Bermuda as the biggest threat for impacts.
06L_gefs_latest.png


Interestingly the latest visibles show a possible eye clearing out. The FV3 also takes this perilously close to the US so we still need to watch it. Small changes in the blocking and this may not go OTS like currently modeled.
 
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