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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Farther north but the trough is also a little farther NE

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GaWx said:
More great stuff from “Shell Mound” elsewhere:

“While I currently expect Florence to curve OTS east of Bermuda, there are some worrying indicators:

*Because Florence has been much more intense than expected, it is certainly farther NE than most of the global models indicated (except the GFS). While this might tend to favour a track OTS, there are some other consequences of this:
**A stronger Florence is a slower Florence. The UKMET and ECMWF have not only been too weak and too far SW with Florence, but also too fast. The GFS has been the slowest and farthest NE, correctly. The last seven runs of the GFS have accurately forecast Florence's intensity and track vs. other models, and worryingly, these last seven runs have shifted Florence farther S by day five (ninety-six hours). That means Florence is going to slow down even more over the next several days. This is bad because:
a) This gives more time for the long-wave trough off the East Coast to miss Florence by days five and six;
b) The TUTT near the Azores retrogrades faster to the SW and is much closer to Florence by then;
c) The feedback -- stronger Florence -> slower Florence -> enhances mid-level shortwave ridging nearby -> misses long-wave trough -> TUTT enhances ridging to the N of the Greater Antilles -> very strong East-Coast ridge extends NE to SW behind long-wave trough -> possibility of Irma- or Ike-like WSW dip for prolonged period of time beyond days five and six
d) If this scenario plays out, it is the second most likely one behind an outright OTS path. IF this happens, then ridging is likely to be sufficiently strong and angled as to drive a very intense Cat-4/5+ Florence WSW, W, and then WNW into FL/eastern Gulf under very favourable outflow conditions (Irma), meaning also lots of ACE build-up and increase in wind field due to some ERCs along the way to FL/Gulf

This looks like all or nothing. If this doesn't curve OTS, we could be looking at something very big and bad for FL and the Gulf.

Oh, and this will likely be a Cat-4 later today...”
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Good information. Not good to think of this as an all or nothing situation as there is always a second chance for a recurve up the coast later on assuming another situation shows up. That being said, you better watch this yourself. If a recurve doesn't occur, anywhere from FL to NC is at risk, including the GA coast as shown by some ensemble members.
 
Looks like the remnants of Gordon may play a bigger role if it's stronger in pushing the ridge out. Might prevent the next ridge from building in and prevent Florence from hitting land. Pretty much what the GFS is saying right now. Something to track over the next several days.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like the remnants of Gordon may play a bigger role if it's stronger in pushing the ridge out. Might prevent the next ridge from building in and prevent Florence from hitting land. Pretty much what the GFS is saying right now. Something to track over the next several days.
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We can certainly hope this is the case, but the GFS is still trucking west this run, it definitely worries me because I know this model's overdeepening and recurvature bias will erroneously skew things in favor of Florence not hitting the US.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We can certainly hope this is the case, but the GFS is still trucking west this run, it definitely worries me because I know this model's overdeepening and recurvature bias will erroneously skew things in favor of Florence not hitting the US.
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Good point. Unfortunately the pressure causes the bias from what it looks like and we all know how bad the GFS is at pressure predictions. So in reality, the pull northward won't be as strong as depicted. It's funny but everything this run is NE of the last one. Everything from the highs to the lows. It also is doing what I thought it would with Gordon's remnants. The stronger low allows for an escape and that's where this run is headed.
 
Gordon's remnants merge with this other low and make some large blob and Florence goes east towards it. A low of that size seems unrealistic.
gfs_mslpa_atl_37.png
 
Euro and GFS aren't that far apart at day 6-7. GFS's progressive bias may be why it whiffs. That low in the central atlantic that several have highlighted already is a big reason why the Euro tracked Florence into the conus.

GFS-Euro.gif
 
Yeah here the gfs has her moving NE and Euro WNW with a very similar pattern.

08b6da6cb11d60f57f40f6959fe91e4c.png


739bb3e16357c47fdc8c3f81ae84a7bd.png



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BHS1975 said:
Yeah here the gfs has her moving NE and Euro WNW with a very similar pattern.

08b6da6cb11d60f57f40f6959fe91e4c.png


739bb3e16357c47fdc8c3f81ae84a7bd.png



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Maybe we should be looking for a middle of the road scenario. Not as far west as the Euro shows, but not as big of a curve north as the GFS shows.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like the remnants of Gordon may play a bigger role if it's stronger in pushing the ridge out. Might prevent the next ridge from building in and prevent Florence from hitting land. Pretty much what the GFS is saying right now. Something to track over the next several days.
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Good post. If Gordon’s remnants end up stronger than model consensus and track close enough to the NE US at the right time, it COULD increase the odds of Florence recurving safely. I still recall last year when a legit H threat to NC (Maria if I’m not mistaken) steered away due to just the weakening remnants of another TC that was hanging around not too far to the north (Jose I think). Those remnants, though weak, were all that was needed to cause steering to turn Maria away from NC. Anyone recall this?
 
Dumb question, but how do you find the floater images of Florence (or any other storm for that manner)? I used to go to NHC and find them under the satellite section. But now, it just looks like all they have are wide area views. I'm sure I just don't know where to go.
 
Rain Cold said:
Dumb question, but how do you find the floater images of Florence (or any other storm for that manner)? I used to go to NHC and find them under the satellite section. But now, it just looks like all they have are wide area views. I'm sure I just don't know where to go.
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Not a "dumb" question at all ... ;)
Per www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php
"The GOES-16 Satellite is now officially GOES-East. Some webpages designed for the retired GOES-13 satellite are not currently available, including floater imagery."
Does this get you what you'd like to look at?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
Hope so!
 
GaWx said:
Good post. If Gordon’s remnants end up stronger than model consensus and track close enough to the NE US at the right time, it COULD increase the odds of Florence recurving safely. I still recall last year when a legit H threat to NC (Maria if I’m not mistaken) steered away due to just the weakening remnants of another TC that was hanging around not too far to the north (Jose I think). Those remnants, though weak, were all that was needed to cause steering to turn Maria away from NC. Anyone recall this?
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I agree that Gordon could have an effect on the forecast; however, I do not think it will be nearly as pronounced as Jose was with Maria. Jose was a long-lived tropical storm that sat out in the ocean around the northeast coast, while Gordon will be a significantly weakened low that has already made landfall. I think there will be much larger factors that decide where Florence goes.
 
GaWx said:
The crucial latitude to cross before 60W is 30N to very likely avoid the SE US. The 0Z Euro barely did that by moving her west along 30N before moving her WNW. However, the 0Z UKMET has it moving due west way down at 25.2N, the latitude of the far S tip of FL.
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HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 43.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 0 20.5N 43.9W 994 53
1200UTC 05.09.2018 12 21.6N 45.7W 998 52
0000UTC 06.09.2018 24 22.6N 47.8W 1001 50
1200UTC 06.09.2018 36 23.6N 49.7W 1004 48
0000UTC 07.09.2018 48 24.2N 51.1W 1005 46
1200UTC 07.09.2018 60 24.4N 52.9W 1005 44
0000UTC 08.09.2018 72 24.3N 54.2W 1003 42
1200UTC 08.09.2018 84 24.2N 55.1W 999 48
0000UTC 09.09.2018 96 24.5N 56.0W 991 55
1200UTC 09.09.2018 108 24.7N 57.4W 985 53
0000UTC 10.09.2018 120 25.1N 59.1W 971 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 132 25.2N 61.0W 965 70
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 25.2N 63.1W 963 70
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The 12Z UKMET is not backing down at all from its far southern track. As a matter of fact, it is actually nearly one degree further south at the end though it is much weaker with 990 mb vs 963 mb on the 0Z. Its new starting point, 21.6N, 45.5W, is only very slightly adjusted toward reality as at 12Z it was really at 21.7N, 45.2W and was at 22.0N, 45.7W at 15Z. The 12Z UKMET had it at about 21.9N, 45.5W using interpolation...so its 12Z initialization is ~0.3 too far south or about 21 statute miles too far south. It may not seem like much and it may later get closer to reality, but for now it is at least worth noting imo:

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 45.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 0 21.6N 45.5W 998 49
0000UTC 06.09.2018 12 22.7N 47.6W 1001 55
1200UTC 06.09.2018 24 23.6N 49.7W 1006 44
0000UTC 07.09.2018 36 24.1N 51.5W 1008 40
1200UTC 07.09.2018 48 24.2N 53.4W 1007 37
0000UTC 08.09.2018 60 24.1N 54.8W 1006 35
1200UTC 08.09.2018 72 23.9N 56.2W 1005 36
0000UTC 09.09.2018 84 23.6N 57.2W 1003 40
1200UTC 09.09.2018 96 23.3N 58.4W 1003 39
0000UTC 10.09.2018 108 23.2N 59.5W 1002 41
1200UTC 10.09.2018 120 23.8N 60.7W 999 49
0000UTC 11.09.2018 132 24.4N 63.3W 990 52
1200UTC 11.09.2018 144 24.5N 66.6W 990 50
 
Rain Cold said:
Dumb question, but how do you find the floater images of Florence (or any other storm for that manner)? I used to go to NHC and find them under the satellite section. But now, it just looks like all they have are wide area views. I'm sure I just don't know where to go.
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Weathernerds is another good site to use for floaters, you can custom zoom.
https://www.weathernerds.org/
 
For some early afternoon entertainment, toggle the euro run from 12Z yesterday to 12Z today. One more jump like that and this thing is in the gulf. I think OTS is pretty much off the table now.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
For some early afternoon entertainment, toggle the euro run from 12Z yesterday to 12Z today. One more jump like that and this thing is in the gulf. I think OTS is pretty much off the table now.
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Do it on 2 days and you'll see a nearly identical location to today's run. No way this thing is going south of Miami in any situation. Shoot, no way this thing is going south of Daytona Beach.
 
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Sounds like what I said earlier about it being in the middle and not curving north as much.
 
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