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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

ForsythSnow said:
That run ended weirdly with the storm going due east then north pulling the next 2 storms with it.
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In a hypothetical situation where it got that far wesmmmmmmm lo mmommmm.mmmmm mo ankmmmmmm

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18z GEFS has the bigger cluster trapped this run.

gfs-ens_mslpa_atl_29.png
 
Hmm where have I seen the 18z GFS before, oh yes, ridge to the north with a weakness over the SE between the ridge centers and a long range OTS solution. Hmm maybe a capture by the weak ULL next run into the Carolinas and then?
 
metwannabe said:
Speak texting and choking do not go hand in hand

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Haha that's awesome. I started typing a message then noticed my dogs were going on an adventure into the woods so I shoved it in but pocket and ran after them.

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Brent said:
33p6aky.png
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To add to the above:

Last 4 GEFS runs with regard to TS+ hits on the US SE coast out of ~21 members:

18Z Mon 0 hits
0Z Tue 0 hits
6Z Tue 4 hits: FL/GA border, SC/NC border, NC OB, skirt NC OB
12Z Tue 2 hits: GA/SC border, SC
———————————————-
New GEFS run (18Z Tue): 5 hits: 2 GA, 3 SC

4 hit 9/13-4; 1 hit 9/17 after hesitating off NC and then moving SW similar to what some EPS members did. Every member that crossed 30N (~12 members) before reaching 60W recurved safely. 9 members crossed 60W below 30N on Monday. All 5 SE US hitters were from that group of 9 and at 60W were at these latitudes: 29.5, 28.0, 27.5, 26, and 22.5.

So, this is the most threatening GEFS run of at least the last 5. Together with what the very threatening 12Z UKMET suite and the more threatening 12Z EPS vs 0Z EPS showed, odds of not hitting the SE US are obviously not nearly as high as they appeared this morning.
 
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from the 11pm discussion



Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt. This
general course is expected to continue through 36 or 48 hours while
the hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge. After that time, the forecast becomes more uncertain,
depending on the presence of a narrow mid-level ridge over the
north-central Atlantic Ocean. A look at the ensemble guidance
shows a bifurcation developing by day 5, with the ECMWF favoring
a more northward turn, and the UKMET ensembles showing a stronger
ridge and a continuation of a west-northwest track. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the
corrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast
undergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the
split in the guidance.
 
Brent said:
from the 11pm discussion



Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt. This
general course is expected to continue through 36 or 48 hours while
the hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge. After that time, the forecast becomes more uncertain,
depending on the presence of a narrow mid-level ridge over the
north-central Atlantic Ocean. A look at the ensemble guidance
shows a bifurcation developing by day 5, with the ECMWF favoring
a more northward turn, and the UKMET ensembles showing a stronger
ridge and a continuation of a west-northwest track. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the
corrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast
undergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the
split in the guidance.
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hmmmm. interesting .
 
GFS looking problematic at day 5 ridging stronger

moving NW at day 7 between Bermuda and the OBX may be a close recurve

Recurve between Bermuda and the OBX on both the GFS and CMC

Into Canada at 300 hours on the gfs briefly gets trapped again
 
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about to hit the SC/NC border area at 192 963 mb on the low res Euro moving almost due west nothing to turn it north
 
Next Wednesday Night 130+ mph gusts off Myrtle Beach on this run verbatim

161xoqs.png
 
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Brent said:
landfall near Charleston at 216 moving almost due west, crazy

33xhvv4.png
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Yep. That’s one ugly run. Writing this one off right now is not a good idea. It will be interesting to see what the EPS look like.


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landfall actually appears to be between Charleston and Myrtle Beach next Thursday afternoon

2gttgmo,png
 
The crucial latitude to cross before 60W is 30N to very likely avoid the SE US. The 0Z Euro barely did that by moving her west along 30N before moving her WNW. However, the 0Z UKMET has it moving due west way down at 25.2N, the latitude of the far S tip of FL.
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HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 43.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 0 20.5N 43.9W 994 53
1200UTC 05.09.2018 12 21.6N 45.7W 998 52
0000UTC 06.09.2018 24 22.6N 47.8W 1001 50
1200UTC 06.09.2018 36 23.6N 49.7W 1004 48
0000UTC 07.09.2018 48 24.2N 51.1W 1005 46
1200UTC 07.09.2018 60 24.4N 52.9W 1005 44
0000UTC 08.09.2018 72 24.3N 54.2W 1003 42
1200UTC 08.09.2018 84 24.2N 55.1W 999 48
0000UTC 09.09.2018 96 24.5N 56.0W 991 55
1200UTC 09.09.2018 108 24.7N 57.4W 985 53
0000UTC 10.09.2018 120 25.1N 59.1W 971 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 132 25.2N 61.0W 965 70
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 25.2N 63.1W 963 70
 
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Hour 96 of the 0Z EPS mean is not only further S than the 12Z EPS but it is also further south than the 0Z Euro operational.
 
The 12Z EPS had ~1/3 of its members cross 60W south of 30N and more than half of this 1/3 later hit the SE US.
The brand new 0Z EPS has 80%+ of its members crossing 60W south of 30N. This run will undoubtedly have numerous SE hits later OMG.
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GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS had ~1/3 of its members cross 60W south of 30N and more than half of this 1/3 later hit the SE US.
The brand new 0Z EPS has 80%+ of its members crossing 60W south of 30N. This run will undoubtedly have numerous SE hits later OMG.
icon_eek.gif
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Wow

I really didnt think the ensembles would agree that much
 
well, someone is the king of fractions...
 
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Kylo said:
Yep, that's what I was thinking too. Majority still recurve. The system behind it in the NE Caribbean has a chance to get interesting down the road too.

eps_mslp_lows_atlantic_240.png
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If you think that the above map showing the 12Z EPS members threatening the SE is somewhat concerning, wait till you see the 0Z EPS. There are so many hits crowded together from north central FL to NC centered on 9/13 that it is very hard to even count them! I very roughly estimate about half of the 51 members hit anywhere from north central FL to NC!
 
I think many people put all their eggs into one basket thinking that if Florence stays strong we're safe and it goes out to sea, the 0z EPS clearly shows even w/ a stronger Florence, there are a lot more pieces to the puzzle that determine its fate and the large-scale steering flow just took an unfavorable turn.
 
if this is like Hugo, 89-90 was a shitastic winter.. let's hope for a re-curve.
 
whamby said:
if this is like Hugo, 89-90 was a shitastic winter.. let's hope for a re-curve.
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Unless of course you're in the coastal areas of the Carolinas that were affected by Hugo, they got rewarded w/ a white Christmas & up to 20" of snow in Brunswick County, NC.
 
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