Ike of 2008 was just N of 17N when it had a genesis near 37W. So, not quite there but close:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2008.png
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2008.png
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Becky of 1958 was near 17.5N, 35W and came within 250 miles of NC.
The devastating to the NE US H of 1938 was near 16N at 35W:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1938.png
So far, back to 1893, the only ones north of 15N at 35W that later hit the US as an intact TC were Irma of 2017, #6 of 1938, and #6 of 1893. Ike of 2008 essentially was also for all practical purposes.
Gloria of 1985 was about right on 15N.
***Edited I still need to look at 1892-1851.
The devastating to the NE US H of 1938 was near 16N at 35W:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1938.png
So far, back to 1893, the only ones north of 15N at 35W that later hit the US as an intact TC were Irma of 2017, #6 of 1938, and #6 of 1893. Ike of 2008 essentially was also for all practical purposes.
Gloria of 1985 was about right on 15N.
***Edited I still need to look at 1892-1851.
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GFS trended to the Euro.
Search completed. 1892-1851 had nothing on record north of 15N at 35W that hit the US.
So, we have Irma at 17.5, THE furthest north on record since 1851 at 35W that later hit the US and about where Florence is. The formative Ike was probably near 17N at 35W.
The complete list at 35W at 15N or higher:
- Irma of 2017 ~17.5N
- Ike of 2008 ~17.0N
- #6 of 1893 ~16.5N
- #6 of 1938 ~16.0N
- Gloria of 1985 ~15.0N
So, IF Florence were to later hit the US as an intact TC, it would tie last year's Irma for the furthest N on record back to 1851 when at 35W.
So, we have Irma at 17.5, THE furthest north on record since 1851 at 35W that later hit the US and about where Florence is. The formative Ike was probably near 17N at 35W.
The complete list at 35W at 15N or higher:
- Irma of 2017 ~17.5N
- Ike of 2008 ~17.0N
- #6 of 1893 ~16.5N
- #6 of 1938 ~16.0N
- Gloria of 1985 ~15.0N
So, IF Florence were to later hit the US as an intact TC, it would tie last year's Irma for the furthest N on record back to 1851 when at 35W.
Kylo
Member
This was the EPS for Irma last year at day 8-9. It ended up tracking on the western side of Florida. Forgot how it had that wsw bend.
Yep, I remember it went from ots to is it ever gonna stop shifting west
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BHS1975
Member
Yeah the models kept breaking down the ridge way to soon.
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pcbjr
Member
... and with this ... Goodnight ...
Fyi here too, I'll be merging the tropical and regular discussion boards tomorrow morning at some point
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Personally, I think it is better having it all on one board. The hurricane threat is usually in the fall when not much else is going on anyway, so I don't think it will clutter up the general board. Lot easier not having to go back and forth between boards to read things. Just my thoughts.
I don't think there will be that much clutter. If you look at it right now it would be pinned topics for PTC7, Flo, and September. I think it simplifies the board a bit. To be honest with you I forgot we had a tropical board earlier this summer. Like I said in the banter thread I'm all ears on all opinions.
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Snowflowxxl
Member
I like the boards separated like they are now, but guess I am in the minority.
Brent
Member
CMC near the Outer Banks at 240 hours
GFS stronger beforehand and may be OTS. GFS is hundreds of miles east of the 18z
GFS stronger beforehand and may be OTS. GFS is hundreds of miles east of the 18z
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Yea very clear trend with GGEM with further SW track. GGEM isn't the best model for the tropics, but it's in line more with EURO/UKMET than the GFS for now.
I counted a total of 42 TCs on record since 1851 that crossed 35W within 15-17.5 N including Ike. Five (the five noted above) of the 42 later hit the CONUS or just under 1 in 8. So, whereas the odds are low, they may not be as low as some may have thought.
I counted only 13 that crossed 35W within 18-20N since 1851 on record. None of these later hit the CONUS. The closest (1975) was 500 miles from Cape Cod. These 13 were in 2016, 2013, 2006, 1990, 1989, 1987, 1975, 1967, 1961, 1955, 1934, 1901, and 1892. Just as is the case for those that crossed 35W within 15-17.5N, the frequency of detection picked up greatly with the start of the satellite era.
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Ensemble runs: nearly kill it midweek before coming back weekend
1) Sunday EPS runs:
0Z: I counted 7 SE US hits with 1 FL, 1 SC, and 5 NC
12Z: Again, 7 SE US hits with 2 FL, 1 SC, 1 SC/NC scraper, 3 NC. Also, 2 Cape Cod hits after hitting or just missing the SE US
2) GEFS runs
Sunday 18Z: 1 NC and several Cape Cod
Monday 0Z: 1 NC, 1 NJ
Keep in mind that there are 2.5 times as many EPS members as GEFS members.
1) Sunday EPS runs:
0Z: I counted 7 SE US hits with 1 FL, 1 SC, and 5 NC
12Z: Again, 7 SE US hits with 2 FL, 1 SC, 1 SC/NC scraper, 3 NC. Also, 2 Cape Cod hits after hitting or just missing the SE US
2) GEFS runs
Sunday 18Z: 1 NC and several Cape Cod
Monday 0Z: 1 NC, 1 NJ
Keep in mind that there are 2.5 times as many EPS members as GEFS members.
Brent
Member
Euro at 192 looks like a problem
Impacting Bermuda then hitting the east coast would be pretty ridiculous
216 Carolinas in big trouble
Impacting Bermuda then hitting the east coast would be pretty ridiculous
216 Carolinas in big trouble
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