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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

metwannabe said:
Long way to go of course but at the end of that run Florence was heading west but that high appears to be breaking down so if that run continued probably a close pass to the EC.... but yeah staying weaker longer "could" spell trouble later.
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Not really, the ridge actually strengthens between hr210 and hr240. That is a very dangerous look for the eastern US.
 
Way out there but a few Florence members getting close by day 11 and another potential one heading towards the Caribbean.

eps_mslp_lows_atlantic_264.png
 
Looks like flo might have a LLC out running convection right now. Combine that with increasing shear and marginal SSTs over the coming days and a weaker system that will be farther west becomes a higher possibility.



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Arcc said:
Not really, the ridge actually strengthens between hr210 and hr240. That is a very dangerous look for the eastern US.
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I thought it looked as if the highs shifting east not breaking down, but I stand corrected... it does look ominous

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metwannabe said:
I thought it looked as if the highs shifting east not breaking down, but I stand corrected... it does look ominous

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You can see the bend back west northwest on the euro toward the end of the run in the image below. The euro might still recurve at the coast
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS intensity forecast thru 36-48 HR is going to look very silly if something doesn't change in a hurry w/ Florence.
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Yeah in 42 hours the 6z had flo at 986 and the 0z euro at 48 hrs was 1003. The euro weakens the system even more after that time period while the gfs holds steady.
92680709be5078fd81dc1c6f76ae9243.jpg


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Shocker lol.
"All but the GFS and HWRF
models have picked up on this more westerly component of motion, and
the ECMWF and UKMET models are now the southernmost models in the
guidance suite. Since the ridge to the north is expected to remain
intact and even build more westward over the next 5 days, the new
NHC track forecast has been shifted southward and to the left of the
previous advisory track..."
 
Webberweather53 said:
Shocker lol.
"All but the GFS and HWRF
models have picked up on this more westerly component of motion, and
the ECMWF and UKMET models are now the southernmost models in the
guidance suite. Since the ridge to the north is expected to remain
intact and even build more westward over the next 5 days, the new
NHC track forecast has been shifted southward and to the left of the
previous advisory track..."
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And I'm sure the track will keep shifting west and south. The latest advisory also weakened Florence back to 50 mph due to poor organization. It'll likely stay that way until it gets closer to land or the Caribbean unless the environment is unfavorable there.
 
Arcc said:
Same thoughts as well, that Euro look screams a rare southwest turn(for that location of the Atlantic) as the ridge builds in.
Click to expand...

Andrew nearly died in the Central Atlantic too due to shear and dry air

and now we have Florence struggling
 
Arcc said:
Same thoughts as well, that Euro look screams a rare southwest turn(for that location of the Atlantic) as the ridge builds in.
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Only thing is that it would be anywhere between N FL to NC I would say if it took that route. However, it would be a cat 3 or 2 at the strongest unless something else happens.
Meteorologist1999 said:
The 12z CMC shows a eastern seaboard landfall. Keeps the Ridge intacted.
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That's another possible scenario. We could get it going up the East coast and not making direct landfall or making it around VA as likely just a strong cat 1 or 2 It just has to get closer before we can guess where it's going but for sure it's going to be a lot of watching if it doesn't recurve.
 
SD said:
Just east of HSE let the NE hit hysteria begin

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With the upper level features the 12z Euro paints I don't see Florence making a sharp turn up north. I think with all the ridging the Southeast could be at risk. N FL and Carolinas.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
With the upper level features the 12z Euro paints I don't see Florence making a sharp turn up north. I think with all the ridging the Southeast could be at risk. N FL and Carolinas.
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I'm not sure. Ridge is centered near bermuda which would support a northward turn as it approaches the coast. All things considered though its certainly a threat and any changes in the orientation of troughing/ridging, the fate of 91L, and the shortwave zipping through the NE will have an impact on Florence

1995 has been popping up on the cpc analogs for days and we may be looking at a stair step type track like felix

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EPS trends over past 48 hours through day 10. I can't find a hurricane/TS that hit land from where Florence sits. Hurricane Isabel would be somewhat close I guess.

EPSTrends.gif
 
412
WTNT31 KNHC 022033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 34.6W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 34.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-
northwestward to westward motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday with a gradual decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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671
WTNT41 KNHC 022034
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018

Florence's cloud pattern is characterized by a low-level center
partially displaced to the west of the coldest cloud tops, which
have expanded in coverage recently. A blend of the latest satellite
classifications supports maintaining an intensity of 45 kt for this
advisory package. Little change in strength is expected for much of
the forecast period, as Florence will be moving through an
environment characterized by moderate shear and marginal SSTs for
the next 3 days. By the end of the forecast period, the SSTs begin
to warm up, which should result in some restrengthening. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is closest to
the SHIPS model forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 285/15. Florence will be steered
west-northwestward or westward for the next several days by the
Atlantic subtropical ridge. There is a fair amount of north-south
spread in the guidance, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and HWRF on
the right side of the envelope and the ECMWF, ECMWF mean and UKMET
on the left. This spread is likely due to large differences in the
vertical structure of the cyclone, with the ECMWF and UKMET having a
much weaker vortex at 500 mb compared to the GFS in 3-4 days. Given
the difficulty in forecasting these types of structural changes,
the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope and is
close to the multi-model consensus aids through the forecast period.
This forecast is largely an update of the previous NHC prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.4N 34.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.7N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.2N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.6N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 23.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 25.5N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Kylo said:
EPS trends over past 48 hours through day 10. I can't find a hurricane/TS that hit land from where Florence sits. Hurricane Isabel would be somewhat close I guess.

View attachment 5804
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It would be an extreme rarity, indeed, and therefore, the betting odds from that position (that far north that far east) would normally be very heavily against a US landfall. However, Irma was in almost the identical position at ~17.5 N, 35 W:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2017.png
 
Also, the remnants of Fred of 2009 made it all the way to the SE coast Sept. 21 (I was there and lived to tell about it), and he was in a similar position to Florence and Irma near 17.5N, 35W:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2009.png

Other than Fred and Irma, I may not find another that far north (17.5N) at 35W that hit the US, but I'll keep looking. In the meantime, devastating to GA/SC #6 of 1893 was not too far south of 17.5 as it was near 16.5N at 35W:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1893.png
 
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