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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

we have signs of life

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the
weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 
Euro has that becoming Florence this weekend and has Gordon forming near SW Florida at day 8

looks to be headed for LA/MS more than Texas this run, MUCH stronger than the 12z

probably near hurricane strength on the Euro near New Orleans at 240

16jea28.png


Also has 3 other storms at the same time in the Atlantic
 
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Brent said:
Euro has that becoming Florence this weekend and has Gordon forming near SW Florida at day 8

looks to be headed for LA/MS more than Texas this run, MUCH stronger than the 12z

probably near hurricane strength on the Euro near New Orleans at 240

16jea28.png


Also has 3 other storms at the same time in the Atlantic
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Will be fun to watch this play out over the coming week
 
Don’t get too confident and excited about the 0Z Euro’s H into LA. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it isn’t that strong on the next run, if there even is a GOM TC then. Only 3 of 51 EPS members have a 999 mb or stronger low in the GOM around the same time. That’s the key to not getting overly confident. The 8-10 day operational Euro is not the least bit consistent from one run to the next in most cases when it comes to TCs. History, alone, says it will likely be a lot different the next run.
 
GaWx said:
Don’t get too confident and excited about the 0Z Euro’s H into LA. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it isn’t that strong on the next run, if there even is a GOM TC then. Only 3 of 51 EPS members have a 999 mb or stronger low in the GOM around the same time. That’s the key to not getting overly confident. The 8-10 day operational Euro is not the least bit consistent from one run to the next in most cases when it comes to TCs. History, alone, says it will likely be a lot different the next run.
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;)
 
The only TC genesis I’m somewhat confident on is the one that nearly every model has and the one the Euro has had for many runs since mid last week, the far E MDR around 9/1. Anything else that may form within the next 8 days somewhere in the Atlantic basin is a total guess imo.
 
The 12Z Euro has it again by 9/1 in the E MDR. I don't know what model doesn't have it. So, a much better than the 20% chance within 5 days per the latest TWO imo.
 
Surprisingly to me, the 12Z Euro still has the TC genesis near FL by hour 144. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms. So, despite two model runs in a row having it, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now though it admittedly is quite interesting.
 
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GaWx said:
Surprisingly to me, the 12Z Euro still has the TC genesis near FL by hour 144. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms. So, despite two model runs in a row having it, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now though it admittedly is quite interesting.
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;):cool::rolleyes:
 
GaWx said:
Surprisingly to me, the 12Z Euro still has the TC genesis near FL by hour 144. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms. So, despite two model runs in a row having it, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now though it admittedly is quite interesting.
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Great analysis as always Larry and I know the usual caveats but the Euro sure seems to not only want the Atlantic to wake up but jump out of bed running......
ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_11.png
 
12Z Euro ensemble (EPS) update for the potential genesis day 6 near S FL: much more active for this than was the 0Z EPS. Something like 30% of the members have a TS+ vs only about 5% on the prior run! Most of these are in the GOM but a couple hit central or N FL east coast. Now this is starting to get my attention a bit more in that this EPS is saying that PERHAPS the last 2 Docs aren't drunk. But I still would want to see at least the GFS have this for more confidence. So, still very low confidence. .
 
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GaWx said:
12Z Euro ensemble (EPS) update for the potential genesis day 6 near S FL: much more active for this than was the 0Z EPS. Something like 30% of the members have a TS+ vs only about 5% on the prior run! Most of these are in the GOM but a couple hit central or N FL east coast. Now this is starting to get my attention a bit more.
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Hey Larry!
Gotta type in abbreviated fashion; but look at this; you're on to something ...

gth_full.png


... but no surprise on that! ;)
 
pcbjr said:
2004?
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I didn't have any idea what a weather model was in that year, but if anyone who had access to the Euro then and can remember maybe they can tell us if such output occurred. I doubt all of them are legitimate since no other model matches it's number. I'll say the Florida one, and the 2 off Africa are the most likely.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I didn't have any idea what a weather model was in that year, but if anyone who had access to the Euro then and can remember maybe they can tell us if such output occurred. I doubt all of them are legitimate since no other model matches it's number. I'll say the Florida one, and the 2 off Africa are the most likely.
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Can't find a Euro archive that's free, so that's that, but if you wanna see a wicked season ... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/

th.jpg

tracks-at-2004.jpg
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Maybe the Euro and Canadian have swapped models. I've never seen the Euro show that many potential storms at a time.
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To be honest it's not incredibly shocking to see a big burst of activity. Atlantic sst have warmed and the wave train from Africa is getting highly active.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
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