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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

GFS says we'll have Florence tomorrow pretty much as soon as the African wave touches water

does show something trying to form as it approaches Texas in about a week not really much before that

Actually does develop a weak Gordon(probably) right before landfall
 
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looks like the Euro is weak into the New Orleans area again

Though it is a little stronger than the 12z which was practically nothing
 
Code RED, we'll likely have Florence very soon...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system is located just off the west coast
of Senegal, Africa. Environmental conditions are favorable for a
tropical depression or a tropical storm to form as the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph near the Cabo
Verde Islands during the next day or two. This system is expected to
bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands
on Friday and Saturday, and if the current development trend
continues, Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings will likely be
required for these islands later today. Interests on the Cabo
Verde Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of
this developing disturbance.

1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Avila
 
Both the JMA & EPS are on board w/ the idea of a big ridge taking hold over the eastern US and SE Canada in the 10-15 day range during the heart of the hurricane season. Hopefully that changes because this usually spells trouble for land areas further west as long as the Atlantic isn't completely dead, which it often isn't at this time of the year.
Dl2Y3fnUYAETw0y.jpg
index (1).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is one of the most aggressive NHC intensity forecasts I've seen in a little while, this is for Tropical Storm Norman in the East Pacific, which may become a category 4 hurricane in the next few days. Really hope it misses Hawaii.
INIT 29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
Click to expand...

It's gone from 75 mph at 5pm yesterday to 150 mph now and forecast to be a Cat 5!

Norman's intensity has increased an estimated 70 kt from 1200 UTC
yesterday morning to 1200 UTC this morning- the fastest in the
basin since Patricia in 2015. Norman has become the 5th category 4
hurricane in the eastern Pacific in 2018 and is also the strongest
hurricane in the basin so far this season.

Gotta love El Nino :p
 
In other news the Gulf development is now in the TWO

A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from Hispaniola northeastward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea
and adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is forecast to spread
westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent any significant development of this system
during the next several days. Environmental conditions could become
more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Regardless of development, this system could
produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
Right now (and always subject to change), with this ...

wg8shr.GIF

and this ...

wg8dlm5-1.GIF

not too worried about this ...

two_atl_5d0.png
 
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Euro tries to form something south of the Panhandle late Monday and Tuesday near New Orleans Wednesday morning, a little stronger than yesterday, still very weak
 
Here's what the EPS is showing with the AEW that'll emerge off Africa in about 6 days or so, the Euro has been ridiculously consistent in developing this particular wave and the EPS brings it generally due west towards the end of the period. If this wave manages to get to around 60W/20N or so, and given the ridge that'll be over the E US and southern Canada at that time, it could be a legitimate threat to landmasses further west. We'll just have to wait and see.

eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_288.png
 
We likely would have started cooling relative to climo beginning as early as late next week if it wasn't for supertyphoon Jebi in the western pacific triggering a wave train that'll stick a potentially even more anomalous ridge over the eastern US in week 2, so summer-like weather will continue thru the first half of September. Hopefully, this ridge retrogrades towards the Rockies during the 3rd week of the month (Sep 14-21) & we open the door for some legit fall cold fronts. Obviously we have to keep a close eye on the tropics for the forseeable future because this pattern is dangerous to have in the middle of September.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's what the EPS is showing with the AEW that'll emerge off Africa in about 6 days or so, the Euro has been ridiculously consistent in developing this particular wave and the EPS brings it generally due west towards the end of the period. If this wave manages to get to around 60W/20N or so, and given the ridge that'll be over the E US and southern Canada at that time, it could be a legitimate threat to landmasses further west. We'll just have to wait and see.

View attachment 5771
Click to expand...
In the meantime, UF actually gets to play an opening football game at home for a change ... no 'cane cancellation ... that being said ...

DlnwHRUUwAAmqdd.jpg
 
Long range but the GFS hints at a US threat too around 360 hours... not a hurricane(it's also post truncation) but definitely a signal in the Bahamas with tons of ridging above
 
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from Hispaniola
northward for a few hundred miles over the adjacent Atlantic
waters are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This activity is forecast to spread westward or
west-northwestward enhancing the rainfall across portions of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Florida
into early next week. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
prevent any development of this system during the next 2 to 3 days,
but environmental conditions could become less hostile when the
system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
suddenly the 0z Euro now has a tropical storm off Tampa on Monday

and a hurricane into New Orleans Wednesday morning wow 985 mb

100 mph wind gusts near SE LA

Euro also has Florence threatening the US at Day 10

What a run
 
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ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_9.png


Looking quite interesting.
 
30" of rain in Texas this run

It's not too strong at landfall(probably a TS) but yeah slows to a crawl in TX later
 
Brent said:
30" of rain in Texas this run

It's not too strong at landfall(probably a TS) but yeah slows to a crawl in TX later
Click to expand...
:(
Lord, let's hope it's not a rerun of the movie we just saw ...
... we already paid for that ticket ... theater's getting old ...
:(

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018090112_228_5_220.png
 
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Possible recon on Monday

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25.5N 83.0W AT 03/18Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS
NEAR SUSPECT AREA IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DEPARTING KLAL AT 03/2000Z AND 04/0800Z.
 
Not a forecast, at all, just an observation and a bit of perplexion ...

This is official ...

two_atl_5d0.png

... orange X way out there north of Haiti ...

... but then this ... in the Gulf now and brewing ...
(downsized the gif to get it to load so you may have to control/click the pic to get it to run the loop)

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif

... water vapor gives an idea but does not do the new convection justice ...

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif

... and this from FSU ...

CON120NATL_latest.png

... and just wondering if maybe ... are we looking under the wrong rock? ... or not ? ...
 
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Code Orange

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

pcbjr said:
Not a forecast, at all, just an observation and a bit of perplexion ...
Click to expand...

that'a separate thing entirely that will be inland tomorrow and Monday as far as I can tell... the 60% comes from when this gets into the Gulf next week
 
Brent said:
Code Orange

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



that'a separate thing entirely that will be inland tomorrow and Monday as far as I can tell... the 60% comes from when this gets into the Gulf next week
Click to expand...
Thanks for the clarification ... ;)
 
Hello new X
2. A tropical wave located along the west coast of Africa is forecast
to move westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days. Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become
more conducive for some slow development of this disturbance by the
middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Getting busy now. Gulf is under the gun, and who knows where Florence will go.
 
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