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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

0z models, the African wave(which for now is out of the TWO though I bet it comes back)

CMC has a storm into GA/SC at day 9
Euro has a very strong vort over South Florida at the same time
GFS did at 18z develop in the Gulf in fantasy land and head for Louisiana
FV GFS does the same but heads for Texas
 
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Brent said:
0z models, the African wave(which for now is out of the TWO though I bet it comes back)

CMC has a storm into GA/SC at day 9
Euro has a very strong vort over South Florida at the same time
GFS did at 18z develop in the Gulf in fantasy land and head for Louisiana
FV GFS does the same but heads for Texas
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Models have been on and off with this wave for a couple of days. The 0z I think it was Friday morning had a weak system off of the Se coast. I don't think it would be shocking to see some low end development

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Brent said:
0z models, the African wave(which for now is out of the TWO though I bet it comes back)

CMC has a storm into GA/SC at day 9
Euro has a very strong vort over South Florida at the same time
GFS did at 18z develop in the Gulf in fantasy land and head for Louisiana
FV GFS does the same but heads for Texas
Click to expand...
The CMC is something Larry doesn't want to see, which is a landfalling cat 1 into Savannah area and then the storm moves up into N GA, which is something I don't want to see after Irma.
gem_mslp_wind_seus_37.png

Now the FV3 is something we should keep track of and compare with the GFS itself to see how well the new model will do when it comes to the tropics. The GFS currently seems dead when it comes to tropical activity, while the FV3 has this though it is fantasy land. Note there is a low that forms around 276, which at this frame is in the Bahamas.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_atl_64.png
 
If anyone's interested in watching/monitoring Africa and what may someday come off the coast, here are three good visual links ...

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hiatlsat_None_anim.gif

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/images/irnmet7kml.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/images/irmet7kml.GIF

Best!
Phil
~~~~~~~
PS ...
The "parent" source is (and has been for a long time) in our Wiki>Models, here -
 
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After not having much on the 0Z EPS, the 12Z EPS along with the operational are back to what had been showing up on multiple runs mid to late last week meaning ~20% of the EPS members in addition to the operational showing a genesis near 9/1 in the far E MDR. The members' TCs stay small with ~3 of them becoming a small H. Most either dissipate or recurve before 50W though one makes it intact just past 60W on 9/8 before dissipating NE of the Caribbean. So, as far as the W basin is concerned, the model based suggestion is that this is likely to not end up being much of a threat should it form though we'd have to see as we get closer to potential development

However, follow-up waves are also showing some geneses between 9/5 and 9/10 in the E MDR. Those are way too far out in time to speculate on right now. But if there were to be multiple TCs to form in the E MDR 9/1-10, it wouldn't be outside of climo norms even in an assumed oncoming weak El Nino for one to at least threaten the W basin as we head toward mid-Sep. though I'm not predicting that.
In the W basin, the 12Z EPS has a few TC geneses in the GOM and off the SE US coast 9/5-8. Something like that would probably end up being the greater threat for obvious reasons.
 
metwannabe said:
I fear the Atlantic is about to "wake up"....
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I feel the same way. The LR models seem to indicate a train of waves coming off Africa starting at the end of the week and onward. As I said before, there is no way we will make it through the season with just 5 storms. But for sure 0 August hurricanes this year. Stats so far : 5/2/0
 
ForsythSnow said:
I feel the same way. The LR models seem to indicate a train of waves coming off Africa starting at the end of the week and onward. As I said before, there is no way we will make it through the season with just 5 storms. But for sure 0 August hurricanes this year. Stats so far : 5/2/0
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Can't be posting much today, but here's a good visual on "a {possible} train of waves coming off Africa" ...

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif

irmet7kml.GIF
 
ForsythSnow said:
I feel the same way. The LR models seem to indicate a train of waves coming off Africa starting at the end of the week and onward. As I said before, there is no way we will make it through the season with just 5 storms. But for sure 0 August hurricanes this year. Stats so far : 5/2/0
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Yeah LR models certainly show the wave train firing up and probably a race between when that occurs and the pattern flips to more east coast troughiness, let's hope the latter wins
 
metwannabe said:
Hmmm.... Euro agrees, Atlantic about to awaken

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eatl_6.png
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That ridge screams “ no recurve” and right into the gulf, especially if that strengthens or retrogrades/builds back to the SE area. Lots of ifs and plenty of time to watch
 
Tarheel1 said:
That ridge screams “ no recurve” and right into the gulf, especially if that strengthens or retrogrades/builds back to the SE area. Lots of ifs and plenty of time to watch
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Yup ... except ... except ... a few models have that ridge buckling like a horseshoe and whatever going north toward Ireland (figuratively speaking) ... too early to start calling anything yet, except maybe it's time for getting out the popcorn and RC Cola ... movie credits might start rolling
 
we have signs of life

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the
weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 
Euro has that becoming Florence this weekend and has Gordon forming near SW Florida at day 8

looks to be headed for LA/MS more than Texas this run, MUCH stronger than the 12z

probably near hurricane strength on the Euro near New Orleans at 240

16jea28.png


Also has 3 other storms at the same time in the Atlantic
 
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Brent said:
Euro has that becoming Florence this weekend and has Gordon forming near SW Florida at day 8

looks to be headed for LA/MS more than Texas this run, MUCH stronger than the 12z

probably near hurricane strength on the Euro near New Orleans at 240

16jea28.png


Also has 3 other storms at the same time in the Atlantic
Click to expand...

Will be fun to watch this play out over the coming week
 
Don’t get too confident and excited about the 0Z Euro’s H into LA. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it isn’t that strong on the next run, if there even is a GOM TC then. Only 3 of 51 EPS members have a 999 mb or stronger low in the GOM around the same time. That’s the key to not getting overly confident. The 8-10 day operational Euro is not the least bit consistent from one run to the next in most cases when it comes to TCs. History, alone, says it will likely be a lot different the next run.
 
GaWx said:
Don’t get too confident and excited about the 0Z Euro’s H into LA. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it isn’t that strong on the next run, if there even is a GOM TC then. Only 3 of 51 EPS members have a 999 mb or stronger low in the GOM around the same time. That’s the key to not getting overly confident. The 8-10 day operational Euro is not the least bit consistent from one run to the next in most cases when it comes to TCs. History, alone, says it will likely be a lot different the next run.
Click to expand...
;)
 
The only TC genesis I’m somewhat confident on is the one that nearly every model has and the one the Euro has had for many runs since mid last week, the far E MDR around 9/1. Anything else that may form within the next 8 days somewhere in the Atlantic basin is a total guess imo.
 
The 12Z Euro has it again by 9/1 in the E MDR. I don't know what model doesn't have it. So, a much better than the 20% chance within 5 days per the latest TWO imo.
 
Surprisingly to me, the 12Z Euro still has the TC genesis near FL by hour 144. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms. So, despite two model runs in a row having it, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now though it admittedly is quite interesting.
 
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GaWx said:
Surprisingly to me, the 12Z Euro still has the TC genesis near FL by hour 144. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms. So, despite two model runs in a row having it, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now though it admittedly is quite interesting.
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;):cool::rolleyes:
 
GaWx said:
Surprisingly to me, the 12Z Euro still has the TC genesis near FL by hour 144. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms. So, despite two model runs in a row having it, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now though it admittedly is quite interesting.
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Great analysis as always Larry and I know the usual caveats but the Euro sure seems to not only want the Atlantic to wake up but jump out of bed running......
ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_11.png
 
12Z Euro ensemble (EPS) update for the potential genesis day 6 near S FL: much more active for this than was the 0Z EPS. Something like 30% of the members have a TS+ vs only about 5% on the prior run! Most of these are in the GOM but a couple hit central or N FL east coast. Now this is starting to get my attention a bit more in that this EPS is saying that PERHAPS the last 2 Docs aren't drunk. But I still would want to see at least the GFS have this for more confidence. So, still very low confidence. .
 
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GaWx said:
12Z Euro ensemble (EPS) update for the potential genesis day 6 near S FL: much more active for this than was the 0Z EPS. Something like 30% of the members have a TS+ vs only about 5% on the prior run! Most of these are in the GOM but a couple hit central or N FL east coast. Now this is starting to get my attention a bit more.
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Hey Larry!
Gotta type in abbreviated fashion; but look at this; you're on to something ...

gth_full.png


... but no surprise on that! ;)
 
pcbjr said:
2004?
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I didn't have any idea what a weather model was in that year, but if anyone who had access to the Euro then and can remember maybe they can tell us if such output occurred. I doubt all of them are legitimate since no other model matches it's number. I'll say the Florida one, and the 2 off Africa are the most likely.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I didn't have any idea what a weather model was in that year, but if anyone who had access to the Euro then and can remember maybe they can tell us if such output occurred. I doubt all of them are legitimate since no other model matches it's number. I'll say the Florida one, and the 2 off Africa are the most likely.
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Can't find a Euro archive that's free, so that's that, but if you wanna see a wicked season ... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/

th.jpg

tracks-at-2004.jpg
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Maybe the Euro and Canadian have swapped models. I've never seen the Euro show that many potential storms at a time.
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To be honest it's not incredibly shocking to see a big burst of activity. Atlantic sst have warmed and the wave train from Africa is getting highly active.

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