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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

if the African waves aren't enough for everyone the GFS has a Gulf storm hitting Texas at day 10

has a storm approaching the Caribbean then too(probably 92L or the one behind it), and plus if Florence does make it to the US it'd be close then :eek:
 
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I just don’t think we have that persistent ridge north of the MDR like we had last year to keep the storms on a W to WSW track.


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And another blob now too.
2. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the coast of west Africa
in a few days. Some development of the system is possible over the
weekend while the wave moves westward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Good Lord, we now have a 20/60 yellow X right behind all of this ... YIKES!
... and it's orange at day 5 ... :mad:

two_atl_5d0.png
 
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here comes Isaac or it might beat 92L to Helene

Updated: A tropical wave with an accompanying low pressure area is
forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Friday. This
system is already showing signs of organization, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week
while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
hints of something in the Western Gulf in the long range too

Remember when the Atlantic was dead???

us_cyclone_en_087_0_euro_2018090712_15843_481_240.png
 
We have a Gulf circle now

The combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Honduras.
Upper-level winds could become somewhat more conducive for some
development when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico in a
couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Some of the models are indiciating that a tropical storm could develop in the Gulf of Mexico and hits Texas.
 
The last several GEFS are hinting at activity in the W Caribbean near the end of the month into very early Oct. 'Tis the season.
 
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Fwiw from Larry Cosgrove yesterday, Flo may not end up being the only high impact CONUS TC due to the possibility of something new and strong in a dangerous position in about 2 weeks:

“One of the complications is that while many of the forecast models had earlier been predicting a robust El Nino, what has actually happened in a positive neutral ENSO with a tendency to remain over and west of the International Dateline. This alignment, called a Modoki event, will permit tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Sargasso Seas (as shearing wind profiles mostly stay along and off of the Pacific shoreline. Since the ensemble members of the various equations show a heat ridge presence over the southern and eastern sections of the U.S. in the 11 - 15 day, any transition to colder air might be enhanced by a combination of a warm-core feature and a frontal structure, the likes of which are shown in the analog outlooks which foresee a cooler turn in the eastern third of the country on the last day of September.”

Don’t shoot the messenger.
 
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