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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

I'd also add just because nothing is currently showing up doesn't mean write this off by no means, something tells me things are brewing in that region and we still need to keep one eye on it no doubt. Just reporting the latest as the model turns saga...
 
metwannabe said:
I'd also add just because nothing is currently showing up doesn't mean write this off by no means, something tells me things are brewing in that region and we still need to keep one eye on it no doubt. Just reporting the latest as the model turns saga...
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Is this Kirk's remnants in the Central Caribbean?
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Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
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You can see on the FV3 at D10, while it never really gets anything going, until a couple of frames later and ots, the mess down there and as SD mentioned a couple days back, could be multiple vorticies fighting for dominance.

fv3p_mslpa_watl_41.png
 
12Z GFS lackluster but very subtle low level trough approaches FL from the east 10/10 with ample moisture and wind surge; this coincides with area Euro weakly develops near there in face of low shear and well above normal SSTs; an area to watch for around 10/10 in future runs, especially with it being south of a very strong 500 mb high; not a concern but more of a curiosity; even the lowly 12Z CMC has a very weak low then going into FL.

12Z GEFS has several members as TD or TS near or on FL E coast 10/11-13 fwiw. Let’s see whether or not the Euro still has some kind of mess near FL then.

*Edit: Euro not doing much near FL 10/10-13 but there continues to be good moisture flowing off the Atlantic below the anomalous upper high. Still going to watch this area for this period.
 
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One similarity today, all the models weakened development. Not often do we get to say they all did something in the same trend direction. :D:rolleyes:o_O. Although it might be short-lived...LOL
 
I count either 6 or 7 of the 51 members hitting FL with a H (1 or 2 on 10/10 and 5 on 10/14-6) and 1 H hitting LA on 10/15. Pretty active to say the least but only fwiw. 1 hits Miami on 10/10 from the south whereas the other 5-6 hit the west coast between Apalach and Tampa. The Miami one actually goes back over the far NE GOM and then curls back into FL (Big Bend) as a H again.
 
metwannabe said:
Oh no, it's either the classic "I Won't Back Down" or his last release before his untimely departure from this world "Hit Louisiana and Leave Mack High N Dry Again"

gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_26.png
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I guess the NE feeder band, won’t be 800-1200 miles out ahead of the storm!?
 
GaWx said:
Don't shoot the model and don't shoot Oct climo. ;)
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I don't shoot anybody (except perhaps an armed intruder after midnight who is liberating the inside of my house in the name of God knows who or what, and then only if 911 isn't rapid response ... o_O) ... and on a more serious note ... it surely can and could and does happen this time of year; it's almost like severe ... a collision of forces, except the genesis is over warm water rather than a corn field ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
I don't shoot anybody (except perhaps an armed intruder after midnight who is liberating the inside of my house in the name of God knows who or what, and then only if 911 isn't rapid response ... o_O) ... and on a more serious note ... it surely can and could and does happen this time of year; it's almost like severe ... a collision of forces, except the genesis is over warm water rather than a corn field ... ;)
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Weak, strong, weak, strong....06z pushes it out a few more days for Leslie to move on.

Screenshot_20181003-202140.jpg
 
0z models starts off developing storm pushing into gulf. CMC/FV3 has it so far. Gfs has it but weaker than the others.
 
Everybody in on it......Euro pushed east after initially placed with the rest.

Timing is faster compared to yesterday. 10th, 12th, 13th....Euro final on the 14th.

Screenshot_20181004-064135.jpg Screenshot_20181004-064157.jpg Screenshot_20181004-064231.jpg Screenshot_20181004-064315.jpg
 
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More on the 51 member 0Z EPS, which was much more active than any earlier run, along with Oct. 1-10 genesis climo:

13 H landfalls on FL (in addition to several TSs):
- 5 Panhandle
- 5 Apalachicola to N of Tampa (includes Big Bend)
- 2 Tampa-Sarasota area
- 1 south tip

Not to be ignored, it also has 3 landfalls on LA (in addition to 2 TSs):
- 1 LA/MS border on 10/10
- 1 W LA 10/13
- 1 central LA 10/15

Tracks of TC with genesis 10/1-10 1851-2015:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png
Favors a NE mover over FL but a significant 2nd max (just like the 0Z EPS has) moving N to NE over LA, especially central and eastern LA.
 
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GaWx said:
More on the 0Z EPS along with Oct. 1-10 genesis climo:

13 H landfalls on FL
- 5 Panhandle
- 5 Apalachicola to N of Tampa (includes Big Bend)
- 2 Tampa-Sarasota area
- 1 south tip

Not to be ignored, it also has 3 landfalls on LA:
- 1 LA/MS border on 10/10
- 1 W LA 10/13
- 1 central LA 10/15

Tracks of TC with genesis 10/1-10 1851-2015:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png
Favors a NE mover over FL but a significant 2nd max (just like the 0Z EPS has) moving N to NE over LA, especially central and eastern LA.
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Yep. Not a pretty sight for FL on this EPS run. As you mentioned, climo points to a more likely hit to FL, but there is a noticeable curve where the storms end up down the road based on landfall from the climo map, and the models reflected that this morning.
eps_cyclones_atlantic_360_2018100400.png

On a side note, this storm, should it form and become named, would be Michael, or another M storm. Last 2 years, the M storms have been category 5s and retired, so here's to hoping that isn't the case and we don't continue.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yep. Not a pretty sight for FL on this EPS run. As you mentioned, climo points to a more likely hit to FL, but there is a noticeable curve where the storms end up down the road based on landfall from the climo map, and the models reflected that this morning.
eps_cyclones_atlantic_360_2018100400.png

On a side note, this storm, should it form and become named, would be Michael, or another M storm. Last 2 years, the M storms have been category 5s and retired, so here's to hoping that isn't the case and we don't continue.
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Just about all those members would be good rainmakers for mby, fingers crossed! A nice juicy TS through the FL panhandle, give me a good 3-5”, then some fall-feeling weather afterwards!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just about all those members would be good rainmakers for mby, fingers crossed! A nice juicy TS through the FL panhandle, give me a good 3-5”, then some fall-feeling weather afterwards!
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Your target is all wrong. You want to be on the east side of the storm for the most rain. The ideal location would be an AL or MS or even a LA hit then curving though N GA. However, since I don't want another TC through here after last year, I'm going to have to reject your desires for rain and tell you that fronts are going to start providing after the storm passes anyway.

The CMC illustrates this nicely.
gem_apcpn_seus_40.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just about all those members would be good rainmakers for mby, fingers crossed! A nice juicy TS through the FL panhandle, give me a good 3-5”, then some fall-feeling weather afterwards!
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If that scenario play out what could we see in Columbia SC with a deep onshore flow all week?
 
12z CMC injected a curve more like the Euro but not as far east. ICON joining the party with curve to FL, between Apalachicola and Tampa.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
If that scenario play out what could we see in Columbia SC with a deep onshore flow all week?
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Anytime the low/ TS goes to your West, you should be in the sweet pot for rain, but unfortunately, severe also. Even a depression going over Athens / Aikens GA area, could easily be 3-5”+, depending on speed. We have along way to go, just keep an eye open
 
Tarheel1 said:
Anytime the low/ TS goes to your West, you should be in the sweet pot for rain, but unfortunately, severe also. Even a depression going over Athens / Aikens GA area, could easily be 3-5”+, depending on speed. We have along way to go, just keep an eye open
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If it stalls before hitting land like some models have suggested, there could easily be a multi day rain event due to the moisture flow ahead of the storm. That could bring even more rain than 3 to 5 inches in places. However, if it goes further east, the flow will remain off to the west to areas that don't need it like coastal SC and NC.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If it stalls before hitting land like some models have suggested, there could easily be a multi day rain event due to the moisture flow ahead of the storm. That could bring even more rain than 3 to 5 inches in places. However, if it goes further east, the flow will remain off to the west to areas that don't need it like coastal SC and NC.
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Honestly we could use the rain here in coastal SC we average an inch from Hurricane Florence many areas received more further north Up the coast like Myrtle beach.
 
The 12Z GEFS is the most active yet with out of 21 members:

- 8 FL TS+ hits (4 H, 4 TS) all Pensacola to Tampa
- 4 LA hits (1 H, 3 TS) with 2 of those also hitting MS/AL
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS is the most active yet with out of 21 members:

- 8 FL TS+ hits (4 H, 4 TS) all Pensacola to Tampa
- 4 LA hits (1 H, 3 TS) with 2 of those also hitting MS/AL
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Larry,
Any good news to share this afternoon? ... LOL
Best!
Phil
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS is the most active yet with out of 21 members:

- 8 FL TS+ hits (4 H, 4 TS) all Pensacola to Tampa
- 4 LA hits (1 H, 3 TS) with 2 of those also hitting MS/AL
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So, the water is hot....is it shear that's keeping it tapped down in intensity? "I'm gonna learn today"....as Kevin Hart says.
 
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